Research · Sep 3, 2026
[VALE] Vale Thesis 2026: Iron Ore Price Pressure Hits Earnings Despite Volume Growth
Vale FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $38.23B revenue (+0.5%). OpInc $11.08B (+3%); Net income $2.47B (-60% YoY on iron ore prices + accounting); Diluted EPS $0.58. FCF $3.06B; Capex $5.98B; Div $3.57B held. Total debt $19.4B. Iron Ore Solutions ~75% (Carajás + Itabira; production target 320-340 Mtpa); Energy Transition Metals ~25% (nickel + copper). B of A upgraded N→Buy Apr 2 ($18→$19); Barclays downgraded OW→EW Apr 20; RBC downgraded OP→SP Mar 12. MS $18→$19.50 Street-high.