Research · Sep 3, 2026
[TEM] Tempus AI Thesis 2026: Genomic Sequencing Drives AI Precision Medicine Pipeline
Tempus AI, Inc. (NASDAQ: TEM) FY2025 revenue ~$1.20-1.30B (+75-90%) with adj. EPS ~-$1.20 to -$1.50 (continued opex investment + AI Applications + Genomics commercial scale-up loss; selected projected post-2026 selected various aggregate adj. EBITDA + adj. FCF break-even acceleration) reflecting continued post-2024 ~$890-960M aggregate Genomics revenue (~74%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics acquisition + selected various aggregate xT + xR + xF tumor profiling + selected various aggregate hereditary cancer testing) + selected continued post-2024 ~$320-360M aggregate Data + Services revenue (~26% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary biopharma data + AI Applications) under continued Founder + CEO Eric Lefkofsky since 2015 (~10-year tenure as Tempus AI Founder + CEO; selected ~$1.5B+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder ownership concentration). US specialty AI-driven precision medicine + genomic sequencing + biopharma data company. Founded September 2015 as Tempus Labs by Eric Lefkofsky in Chicago Illinois (~10-year heritage); selected post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO; selected post-July 2024 ~$600M+ Ambry Genetics acquisition; selected post-2015 Eric Lefkofsky Founder + CEO appointment. Headquartered in Chicago Illinois; ~3,500-4,000+ employees globally with ~$1.20-1.30B revenue. One primary business: AI-driven precision medicine + genomic sequencing + biopharma data (~100%). Structure: Genomics (~74%+ ~$890-960M), Data + Services (~26% ~$320-360M). Geographic mix: US ~95%+ + selected various international ~5%. Genomic sequencing cycle (~$890-960M post-Ambry): ~$890-960M Genomics revenue; selected post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics acquisition adding ~225,000+ aggregate annual hereditary cancer tests; ~365,000+ aggregate cumulative Tempus tests; ~+30-40% aggregate Genomics revenue growth. AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline: ~$320-360M Data + Services revenue; ~+25-35% aggregate Data + Services revenue growth; ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate biopharma data contract backlog; selected primary Olympus + Recursion + biopharma partnerships. Founder + CEO Eric Lefkofsky since 2015 (~10-year tenure); CFO Jim Rogers. Capital position: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO); minimal opportunistic buybacks; ~$0.5-0.7B aggregate cash + investments balance; ~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn; selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even; ~170-175M diluted shares (Class A + Class B); selected ~30%+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration via dual-class structure. FY2026 thesis: Genomic sequencing cycle (post-July 2024 Ambry integration) + AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline + selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even + selected ~30%+ Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration. Risks: Foundation Medicine (Roche) + Caris Life Sciences + Guardant Health + Natera + Exact Sciences + Invitae + Myriad Genetics competition, Veeva + IQVIA + Flatiron Health competition, payer access + Medicare reimbursement, sustained quarterly cash burn delay break-even.