Tempus AI, Inc. (NASDAQ: TEM) FY2025 revenue ~$1.20-1.30B (+75-90%) with adj. EPS ~-$1.20 to -$1.50 (continued opex investment + AI Applications + Genomics commercial scale-up loss; selected projected post-2026 selected various aggregate adj. EBITDA + adj. FCF break-even acceleration) reflecting continued post-2024 ~$890-960M aggregate Genomics revenue (~74%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics acquisition + selected various aggregate xT + xR + xF tumor profiling + selected various aggregate hereditary cancer testing) + selected continued post-2024 ~$320-360M aggregate Data + Services revenue (~26% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary biopharma data + AI Applications) under continued Founder + CEO Eric Lefkofsky since 2015 (~10-year tenure as Tempus AI Founder + CEO; selected ~$1.5B+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder ownership concentration). US specialty AI-driven precision medicine + genomic sequencing + biopharma data company. Founded September 2015 as Tempus Labs by Eric Lefkofsky in Chicago Illinois (~10-year heritage); selected post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO; selected post-July 2024 ~$600M+ Ambry Genetics acquisition; selected post-2015 Eric Lefkofsky Founder + CEO appointment. Headquartered in Chicago Illinois; ~3,500-4,000+ employees globally with ~$1.20-1.30B revenue. One primary business: AI-driven precision medicine + genomic sequencing + biopharma data (~100%). Structure: Genomics (~74%+ ~$890-960M), Data + Services (~26% ~$320-360M). Geographic mix: US ~95%+ + selected various international ~5%. Genomic sequencing cycle (~$890-960M post-Ambry): ~$890-960M Genomics revenue; selected post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics acquisition adding ~225,000+ aggregate annual hereditary cancer tests; ~365,000+ aggregate cumulative Tempus tests; ~+30-40% aggregate Genomics revenue growth. AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline: ~$320-360M Data + Services revenue; ~+25-35% aggregate Data + Services revenue growth; ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate biopharma data contract backlog; selected primary Olympus + Recursion + biopharma partnerships. Founder + CEO Eric Lefkofsky since 2015 (~10-year tenure); CFO Jim Rogers. Capital position: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO); minimal opportunistic buybacks; ~$0.5-0.7B aggregate cash + investments balance; ~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn; selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even; ~170-175M diluted shares (Class A + Class B); selected ~30%+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration via dual-class structure. FY2026 thesis: Genomic sequencing cycle (post-July 2024 Ambry integration) + AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline + selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even + selected ~30%+ Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration. Risks: Foundation Medicine (Roche) + Caris Life Sciences + Guardant Health + Natera + Exact Sciences + Invitae + Myriad Genetics competition, Veeva + IQVIA + Flatiron Health competition, payer access + Medicare reimbursement, sustained quarterly cash burn delay break-even.

[TEM] Tempus AI Thesis 2026: Genomic Sequencing Drives AI Precision Medicine Pipeline

Key Takeaways

TEM FY2025 revenue ~$1.20-1.30B (+75-90% YoY) with adj. EPS ~-$1.20 to -$1.50 (continued opex investment + AI Applications + Genomics commercial scale-up loss; selected projected post-2026 selected various aggregate adj. EBITDA + adj. FCF break-even acceleration) reflecting continued post-2024 ~$890-960M aggregate Genomics revenue (~74%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics acquisition + selected various aggregate xT + xR + xF tumor profiling + selected various aggregate hereditary cancer testing) + selected continued post-2024 ~$320-360M aggregate Data + Services revenue (~26% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary biopharma data + AI Applications) under continued Founder + CEO Eric Lefkofsky since 2015 (~10-year tenure as Tempus AI Founder + CEO; selected ~$1.5B+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder ownership concentration via Class B + Class A shares).
Genomic sequencing cycle (~$890-960M post-Ambry): ~$890-960M Genomics revenue (~74%+ revenue mix); selected primary post-July 2024 ~$600M+ Ambry Genetics acquisition adding selected ~225,000+ aggregate annual hereditary cancer + selected various aggregate genetic tests + selected ~$200-300M aggregate annual Ambry revenue + selected various aggregate xT + xR + xF tumor profiling + selected ~365,000+ aggregate cumulative Tempus tests + selected various aggregate ~+30-40% aggregate Genomics revenue growth.
AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline: ~$320-360M Data + Services revenue (~26% revenue mix); selected primary biopharma data + AI Applications + selected various aggregate Olympus + Recursion + selected various aggregate biopharma partnerships; selected various aggregate ~+25-35% aggregate Data + Services revenue growth + selected various aggregate ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate biopharma data contract backlog.
Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$0M FY2025; ~$0.5-0.7B aggregate cash + investments balance; selected post-2024 ~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn (selected continued post-2024 commercial + R&D investment); selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even on continued Genomics + AI Applications + Data + Services revenue trajectory; ~170-175M diluted shares (Class A + Class B); selected ~30%+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration via dual-class structure.
FY2026 thesis catalysts: Genomic sequencing cycle (post-July 2024 Ambry integration) + AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline + selected post-2024 selected various aggregate Olympus + Recursion + biopharma partnerships + selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even + selected ~30%+ Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration.

Company Background

Tempus AI, Inc. (NASDAQ: TEM) is a US specialty AI-driven precision medicine + genomic sequencing + biopharma data company, founded September 2015 as Tempus Labs by Eric Lefkofsky in Chicago Illinois (~~10-year heritage; selected pioneer AI-driven precision oncology + genomic sequencing + biopharma data). Selected post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO (~~$410M aggregate IPO proceeds June 2024); selected post-2015-2025 selected various aggregate equity raises + cumulative ~$1.5B+ aggregate equity capital; selected post-2015 Eric Lefkofsky Founder + CEO appointment; selected post-2017-2024 selected various aggregate Genomics + AI Applications + Data + Services platform development; selected post-July 2024 ~$600M+ aggregate Ambry Genetics acquisition; selected post-2024 selected various aggregate Olympus + Recursion + selected various aggregate biopharma partnerships; HQ Chicago Illinois; ~3,500-4,000+ employees globally; selected ~$1.5B+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder ownership concentration via Class B + Class A shares; selected ~30%+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration via dual-class structure.

TEM operates 1 primary business: AI-driven precision medicine + genomic sequencing + biopharma data ~~100% revenue (~~$1.20-1.30B). Genomics revenue ~~74%+ revenue mix (~~$890-960M; selected primary post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics acquisition + selected various aggregate xT + xR + xF tumor profiling + selected various aggregate hereditary cancer testing) + Data + Services revenue ~~26% revenue mix (~~$320-360M; selected primary biopharma data + AI Applications). Geographic mix: US ~~95%+ revenue (~~$1.15-1.25B; selected primary US Genomics + Data + Services commercial) + selected various international ~~5% (~~$60-65M).

Capital position: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$0M FY2025; ~$0.5-0.7B aggregate cash + investments balance; ~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn; selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even; ~170-175M diluted shares.

Genomic Sequencing Cycle (~$890-960M Post-Ambry)

The Genomic sequencing cycle is TEM's foundation thesis: ~$890-960M Genomics revenue (~74%+ revenue mix) + selected primary post-July 2024 ~$600M+ Ambry Genetics acquisition adding selected ~225,000+ aggregate annual hereditary cancer + selected various aggregate genetic tests + selected ~$200-300M aggregate annual Ambry revenue + selected various aggregate xT + xR + xF tumor profiling + selected ~365,000+ aggregate cumulative Tempus tests + selected various aggregate ~+30-40% aggregate Genomics revenue growth. Selected primary TEM Genomics platform: xT (broad-panel tumor profiling) + xR (RNA expression) + xF (liquid biopsy) + selected post-July 2024 Ambry hereditary cancer + selected various aggregate ~5-10%+ aggregate US comprehensive genomic profiling market share.

FY2025 Genomics dynamics ($890-960M aggregate Genomics revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~+30-40% aggregate Genomics revenue growth + ~$890-960M aggregate revenue + selected various aggregate ~365,000+ aggregate cumulative Tempus tests + selected various aggregate ~225,000+ aggregate annual Ambry hereditary cancer + selected various aggregate xT + xR + xF + selected post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics integration. Selected post-2024 ~$0.30-0.45 incremental annual EPS contribution as Genomic sequencing cycle (post-July 2024 Ambry integration) drives incremental margin + Genomics revenue.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Genomic sequencing cycle + ~$0.30-0.45 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Founder + CEO Eric Lefkofsky leadership (~10-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$1.10-1.20B aggregate Genomics revenue + selected various ~+25-30% aggregate Genomics revenue growth + selected various aggregate ~450,000-500,000 aggregate annual Tempus tests + selected various aggregate ~225,000-250,000 aggregate annual Ambry hereditary cancer + selected various aggregate xT + xR + xF tumor profiling + selected post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics integration. Risks: Foundation Medicine (Roche) + Caris Life Sciences + Guardant Health + Natera + Exact Sciences + Invitae (LabCorp) + Myriad Genetics + selected various aggregate global genomic sequencing + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + payer access + Medicare reimbursement.

AI Applications + Biopharma Data Pipeline

The AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline is TEM's primary growth thesis: ~$320-360M Data + Services revenue (~26% revenue mix) + selected primary biopharma data + AI Applications + selected various aggregate Olympus + Recursion + selected various aggregate biopharma partnerships + selected various aggregate ~+25-35% aggregate Data + Services revenue growth + selected various aggregate ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate biopharma data contract backlog.

FY2025 Data + Services dynamics: ~$320-360M aggregate Data + Services revenue + selected various aggregate ~+25-35% aggregate Data + Services revenue growth + selected various aggregate biopharma data + AI Applications + selected various aggregate Olympus + Recursion + biopharma partnerships + selected ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate biopharma data contract backlog. Selected post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution as AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline drives incremental margin + Data + Services revenue.

FY2026 catalyst: continued AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$420-475M aggregate Data + Services revenue + selected various aggregate ~+25-35% aggregate Data + Services revenue growth + selected various aggregate ~$1.2-1.5B aggregate biopharma data contract backlog + selected various aggregate biopharma data + AI Applications. Risks: Veeva Systems + IQVIA + Flatiron Health (Roche) + selected various aggregate global biopharma data + AI Applications + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + selected various aggregate biopharma R&D spending considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO) + minimal opportunistic buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$0M FY2025 + ~$0.5-0.7B aggregate cash + investments balance + ~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn + selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even + ~170-175M diluted shares (Class A + Class B) + selected ~30%+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration via dual-class structure.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Genomic sequencing cycle + AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline + selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even + selected potential post-2027 transition to profitability. Selected aggregate ~$1.50-1.70B aggregate revenue trajectory + selected continued ~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn (selected various aggregate decelerating toward break-even) + selected various aggregate post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics integration synergies.

Key Core Metrics

FY2025 revenue ~$1.20-1.30B (+75-90% YoY) vs $700M FY2024; adj. EPS ~-$1.20 to -$1.50
1 segment: AI-driven precision medicine + genomic sequencing + biopharma data ~100% (Genomics ~74%+ + Data + Services ~26%)
Geographic mix: US ~95%+ + selected various international ~5%
Genomics: ~$890-960M revenue; ~365,000+ aggregate cumulative Tempus tests; ~225,000+ aggregate annual Ambry hereditary cancer; selected post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics acquisition ($600M+)
Data + Services: ~$320-360M revenue; ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate biopharma data contract backlog; selected primary Olympus + Recursion + biopharma partnerships
~$0.5-0.7B aggregate cash + investments balance
~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn
~170-175M diluted shares (Class A + Class B); ~$0M total capital return FY2025
~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO)
Selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even
Founder + CEO Eric Lefkofsky (since 2015, ~10-year tenure); CFO Jim Rogers
Selected ~$1.5B+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder ownership concentration; ~30%+ aggregate voting power concentration via dual-class structure

Market Evaluation

TEM trades as a US specialty AI-driven precision medicine + genomic sequencing + biopharma data company levered to Genomic sequencing cycle (post-July 2024 Ambry integration) + AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline + selected ~30%+ Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration. Bull case: ~$890-960M Genomics + ~$320-360M Data + Services + ~365,000+ aggregate cumulative Tempus tests + ~225,000+ aggregate annual Ambry hereditary cancer + selected post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics integration + selected ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate biopharma data contract backlog + selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even drive ~$1.50-1.70B revenue FY2026 (+25-35% YoY). Bear case: Foundation Medicine (Roche) + Caris Life Sciences + Guardant Health + Natera + Exact Sciences + Invitae (LabCorp) + Myriad Genetics + Veeva Systems + IQVIA + Flatiron Health competitive displacement + payer access + Medicare reimbursement pressure + Ambry Genetics integration considerations + sustained ~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn delay break-even + selected ~30%+ Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration governance considerations trigger material EPS compression. Base case: Genomic sequencing cycle + AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline + selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even support continued ~$1.50-1.70B revenue + ~-$0.80 to -$1.20 adj. EPS FY2026.

Genomic Sequencing Drives AI Precision Medicine Pipeline Deep Dive

Selected continued post-2024 ~$890-960M aggregate Genomics revenue (~74%+ revenue mix; selected primary post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics acquisition + selected various aggregate xT + xR + xF tumor profiling + selected various aggregate hereditary cancer testing) + selected continued post-2024 ~$320-360M aggregate Data + Services revenue (~26% revenue mix; selected primary biopharma data + AI Applications) + selected continued post-2024 ~365,000+ aggregate cumulative Tempus tests + selected continued post-2024 ~225,000+ aggregate annual Ambry hereditary cancer + selected continued post-July 2024 ~$600M+ Ambry Genetics acquisition + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.0-1.2B aggregate biopharma data contract backlog + selected continued post-2024 selected various aggregate Olympus + Recursion + selected various aggregate biopharma partnerships + selected continued post-2024 ~$0.5-0.7B aggregate cash + investments balance + selected continued post-2024 ~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn + selected projected post-2026 cash flow break-even + selected ~$1.5B+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder ownership concentration via Class B + Class A shares + selected ~30%+ aggregate Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration via dual-class structure drive TEM's primary FY2026 thesis. Founder + CEO Eric Lefkofsky (~10-year tenure) leadership continues post-2015 founding focus on Genomic sequencing cycle + AI Applications + biopharma data pipeline + selected post-July 2024 Ambry Genetics integration + selected continued post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO investor stewardship. Risks: Foundation Medicine (Roche) + Caris Life Sciences + Guardant Health + Natera + Exact Sciences + Invitae (LabCorp) + Myriad Genetics + selected various aggregate global comprehensive genomic profiling + Veeva Systems + IQVIA + Flatiron Health (Roche) + selected various aggregate global biopharma data + AI Applications + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + payer access + Medicare reimbursement + selected various aggregate biopharma R&D spending considerations + Ambry Genetics integration considerations + sustained ~$110-150M aggregate quarterly cash burn delay break-even + selected ~30%+ Lefkofsky Founder voting power concentration governance considerations + selected dual-class structure (Class A + Class B) governance considerations + selected post-June 2024 NASDAQ IPO continuity considerations.