Research · Sep 3, 2026
Schlumberger FY2025 revenue ~$36-37B (+5-7%) with adj. EPS ~$3.70-3.90 reflecting continued international cycle strength (Saudi + Brazil + Middle East) partially offset by US shale activity moderation. International revenue ~80% provides structural countercyclical buffer to US cycles. 4 operating divisions: Well Construction ~$13B (36% — drilling-related largest), Production Systems ~$11B (30% — growing post-Aker Solutions subsea integration June 2024 + ChampionX pending), Reservoir Performance ~$7B (19% — formation evaluation higher-margin), Digital & Integration ~$4B (11% — Lumi platform + software at 30%+ op margin). ChampionX $7.75B all-stock acquisition (announced April 2024, closing Q4 2025-Q1 2026 after antitrust extension + selective divestiture to address concerns) consolidates production chemicals + artificial lift adding ~$3.6B revenue + $400M annual run-rate synergies year-3. CEO Olivier Le Peuch since Aug 2019 executed strategic refocus on capital-light fee-for-service model + digital transformation. FY2026 thesis: international cycle strength continues + ChampionX integration + Digital & Integration margin expansion toward 32-35%. Risks: WTI <$65 pressures NOC capex (Saudi Aramco offshore expansion deferred), US shale activity declining, ChampionX integration disappoints.
Research · Jun 12, 2026
Schlumberger Middle East 35-40% revenue. Iran tension drives Saudi/Iraq/UAE friend-shoring activity directly to SLB services revenue.
Research · Apr 27, 2026
SLB's Q1 earnings showed Middle East revenue down 10% with ongoing demobilizations from the Iran conflict, contradicting the IEA's projection of swift Gulf oil field resumption. The market sold oilfield services stocks but hasn't repriced energy producers XOM and CVX for the extended tight-supply window this signals. The trade is long the producers on 6-9 month crude strength, breaking if official Gulf resumption announcements or OPEC data show rapid supply return by mid-May.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Last week's S&P 500 rally on Middle East ceasefire hopes creates a tactical mispricing in energy stocks. While XLE participated in the broad market advance, the de-escalation narrative removes the geopolitical premium that had been supporting energy valuations, setting up 5-10% underperformance versus the S&P 500 over 30 days as the conflict bid unwinds.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad on April 11 signal Middle East de-escalation, favoring integrated oils like XOM and CVX for stable refining, big banks JPM/BAC for lower provisions, and services SLB amid resilient rigs—while upstream OXY lags. Ranked conviction prioritizes cash-rich names. Watch negotiation breakthroughs and oil flows.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
US-Iran talks in Pakistan on April 11 signal Middle East de-escalation, lowering oil premiums and volatility to favor integrated majors (CVX, XOM), banks (JPM, BAC), services (SLB), and upstream (OXY). Ranked conviction highlights CVX and XOM for stability and FCF.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Faltering US-Iran ceasefire talks triggered a Gulf stock selloff amid escalation fears, but XLE holds resilient on high oil prices. Geopolitical risks could drive crude to $120+, boosting the ETF's top holdings like XOM and CVX. Bullish on XLE at current valuations amid skewed odds for higher oil.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Trump's Iran de-escalation signals dropped Brent below $100, pressuring pure energy plays while boosting banks and integrated majors via stability and refining gains. JPM and XOM top the winners list with strong FCF and low multiples; OXY lags as upstream exposure bites. Investors should favor diversified resilience over high-beta oil bets.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Sustained $140+ oil per Bloomberg's April 2 report stalls stocks, favoring XOM, CVX, OXY, SLB via higher realizations while crushing AAL and DAL on fuel costs. Energy winners show robust margins and FCF; airlines face EPS erosion. Ranked: OXY > XOM > CVX > SLB > DAL > AAL.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Hormuz crisis spikes oil to $150/bbl, boosting XOM, CVX, OXY, SLB via upstream cash flows while unhedged AAL and DAL face margin squeezes. OXY leads winners on Permian leverage; airlines trail on fuel exposure.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Pakistan's April 7, 2026, plea to open the Strait of Hormuz triggered a Brent slide, pressuring energy stocks like OXY and SLB while aiding Ford and Walmart via cheaper gas. Analysis ranks OXY as top loser and F as prime winner based on TTM metrics and guidance.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Bloomberg's April 8 note flags markets pricing a Strait of Hormuz reopening, stabilizing XLE at $61 after a 12% March rally. Oil services via OIH remain bullish on lingering risks, with HAL and SLB showing strong YTD gains and undervalued multiples. Watch shipping flows and Q1 earnings for next moves.
