Research · Sep 3, 2026
[SBUX] Starbucks Thesis 2026: Back to Starbucks Strategy Inflects Comparable Sales
Starbucks FY25 (Sep 28, 2025 FYE) at $37.18B revenue (+2.8%). OpInc $3.58B (-34%, restructuring + Back to Starbucks investment); net income $1.86B (-51%); Diluted EPS $1.63 (vs $3.31). Comp store sales sequence: Q1-Q3 FY25 negative; Q4 FY25 +1% (first positive in 7Q); Q1 FY26 +4% global / +4% US / +7% China — turnaround inflected. FCF $2.44B; capex $2.31B; buybacks $0 FY25 (vs $1.27B FY24); dividend $2.77B (+7%). Total debt $26.6B. 13 analysts: 7 Buy / 6 Hold; consensus $103.69, range $89-$122. Jefferies upgraded UP→Hold (Apr 13); RBC downgraded OP→SP (Mar 18); 6 of 10 actions PT raises.