ONB
NASDAQ · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · US
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Oct 28, 2026
- EPS estimate
- $0.66
- Revenue estimate
- $733.1M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Jul 22, 2026
- EPS actual
- $0.65
- EPS estimate
- $0.63
- Revenue actual
- $726.9M
- Revenue estimate
- $716.3M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 9
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 2
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 1
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- +3.9%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 6
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Buy
- Price target
- $30
- PT range
- $29 – $31
- Analysts
- 5
Q2 FY2026 · Jul 22, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
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Overall Financial Results & Strategy
- Delivered record Q2 2026 results, including record adjusted EPS, record net income, and a record efficiency ratio
- Achieved 20% adjusted return on average tangible common equity and 1.39% adjusted ROA, with profitability ranking in the top decile among peers
- Continues executing on an organic growth strategy focused on fundamental banking: building high-quality client relationships, maintaining disciplined credit and expense management, investing in talent and technology, and growing tangible book value
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Loan Growth & Pipeline
- End-of-period loans increased $1 billion (8% annualized), driven by robust high-quality commercial originations that are predominantly floating rate
- Commercial production hit $3.5 billion, and the end-of-period commercial pipeline reached a new record of $5.6 billion
- Average C&I loan size remains under $1 million, with growth coming from a mix of core lower middle market business and larger opportunities in growth markets
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Fee Income Diversification
- Broad-based strength across all fee business lines, which is an intentional strategic goal to reduce reliance on net interest income and build a more balanced earnings engine
- Q2 adjusted non-interest income exceeded guidance, with strength across wealth management, mortgage, capital markets, and other income; elevated other income this quarter is temporary and expected to normalize to Q1 levels for the rest of 2026
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Balance Sheet & Capital Management
- Reduced total deposit costs by 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter while remaining competitive for new client acquisition, in line with expectations for the deposit pricing strategy
- Maintains a strong capital position, with CET1 ratio over 11% and compound growth in tangible book value per share even after absorbing merger charges and returning capital to shareholders
- Repurchased $107 million (4.4 million shares) in Q2, with $277 million remaining under the current authorization; total combined payout ratio was 65% of Q2 net income
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Credit Quality
- Credit quality remains a core strength: non-accruals decreased $50 million (10%) quarter-over-quarter, criticized and classified loans declined $109 million, and net charge-offs are in line with expectations
- Underwriting standards remain rigorous, the loan portfolio is well-diversified, and Old National's community banking model is positioned to perform well across economic cycles
Guidance
- Full year 2026 overall expectations are largely unchanged, but management increased guidance for two key metrics based on strong year-to-date performance and record pipelines: loan growth guidance was raised to 6% to 8%, and non-interest income guidance was increased to reflect Q2 outperformance
- Net interest income (NII) guidance is broadly unchanged, updated only to account for the impact of prior sub-debt issuance; management expects NIM and NII to improve in the second half of 2026, driven by higher average earning assets from strong first-half growth, fixed asset repricing opportunities, the likelihood the Q2 SOFR headwind will not repeat, earning asset remixing, and an extra day in both Q3 and Q4
- Guidance for expenses, credit quality, and the corporate tax rate remains unchanged from prior outlooks
- Management assumes no Federal Reserve rate changes in 2026 and a stable 5-year Treasury yield; the balance sheet is well-positioned for the second half of 2026, with more upside opportunities than downside challenges
- Management expects to fully utilize the remaining $277 million in share repurchase authorization opportunistically before the program expires at the end of February 2027
- Full year 2026 results are still expected to deliver over 15% EPS growth, positive operating leverage, peer-leading profitability, and normalized credit performance
Segment performance
Old National does not break out separate product segment financials with absolute revenue or contribution percentage in this call. All performance is discussed at the consolidated company level. Key consolidated performance metrics for Q2 2026 include: record GAAP and adjusted EPS of 65 cents; adjusted non-interest income of $140 million, which exceeded guidance; adjusted non-interest expense of $360 million, resulting in a record adjusted efficiency ratio of 45.2%; total loans grew 8.3% annualized quarter-over-quarter, led by balanced growth in commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial & industrial (CNI) portfolios, with total commercial production reaching $3.5 billion and a record period-end commercial pipeline of $5.6 billion; total deposits increased 3.4% annualized, driven by commercial and public fund growth, with non-interest-bearing deposits remaining 23% of total deposits; net charge-offs were 26 basis points (22 basis points excluding PCD loans), non-accrual loans decreased to 91 basis points of total loans, and the allowance for credit losses to total loans was 121 basis points; CET1 ratio was 11.09%, tangible book value per share increased 14% year over year, and $163 million in capital was returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
Risks & headwinds
- Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections, with full risk factors disclosed in Old National's SEC filings
- Key identified uncertainties that impact guidance include future growth dynamics, the shape of the yield curve, the absolute level of intermediate-term interest rates, and persistent competitiveness of the deposit market
- Global economic uncertainty is incorporated into the company's qualitative credit reserves via a 100% weighting to the Moody's S2 downside economic scenario
- The proposed Basel III capital rule changes are still pending finalization, which introduces uncertainty around future capital flexibility, though Old National currently estimates it will see a ~100 basis point capital benefit if the rules are implemented as proposed
Analyst Q&A
Q: With strong organic loan growth and plans to use the full remaining buyback authorization, is management comfortable with current capital levels and focused on balancing organic growth with continued capital return? / A: Management confirmed it is very comfortable with current capital levels. The current strategy (Plan A) is to support organic growth while continuing to return excess capital to shareholders, and this strategy still supports strong growth in tangible book value per share given Old National's high earnings rate.
Q: Given the stronger than expected loan growth, is it accurate to expect NIM expansion in the second half of 2026, and what are the key factors driving this outlook? / A: Management confirmed that expectation is correct. Key supports for expanding NIM and NII include higher average earning assets from stronger first half growth, ongoing fixed asset repricing (100 basis points on securities, 60 basis points on loans), the Q2 SOFR headwind is not expected to repeat and could become a tailwind, and earning asset remix opportunities. The extra day in both Q3 and Q4 will also provide a small boost.
Q: Beyond the temporary elevated other income that will normalize, can core fee businesses continue growing from current levels, and what is driving the recent strong performance? / A: Management expects core fee businesses to continue performing well in the second half of 2026. Wealth management, which has been a key focus of investment in recent years, is delivering strong results; the mortgage business was solid in Q2, boosted by the addition of a new team in the Nashville market; and capital markets performance is tracking strong commercial loan pipelines, giving management confidence in continued growth for that segment.
Q: Loan growth guidance has been raised, and management is targeting larger middle market CNI loans – how widespread is this shift, and how does it impact funding and margin? / A: Larger loan opportunities are starting to appear in Q2 production and forward pipelines, especially in larger growth markets, but Old National still does substantial core lower middle market business, with the average C&I loan still under $1 million. Half of Q2 production came from core CNI, and full relationship capture means deposit pipelines are growing in line with loan pipelines, supporting stable funding for incremental growth.
Q: What is the long-term expected annual growth rate for fee income, and what segments drive this outlook? / A: Management expects aggregate blended fee income growth of mid to high single-digit over the long term. Certain segments are expected to outperform: wealth management is expected to deliver double-digit growth as prior investments pay off, and capital markets is expected to grow as the bank builds additional capability to serve larger CNI clients.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Oct 28, 2026