Research · Sep 3, 2026
[ONB] Old National Bancorp Thesis 2026: Midwest Regional Bank Drives Deposit Franchise Capital Return
Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) FY2025 revenue ~$1.85-2.05B (+15-20%) with adj. EPS ~$1.95-2.15 reflecting continued post-July 2024 ~$1.85-2.05B aggregate Net Interest Income + Noninterest Income (~$53-55B aggregate assets; selected primary post-July 2024 ~$3.1B Bremer Financial Corporation acquisition + selected primary post-2022 First Midwest Bancorp merger of equals + selected various aggregate Midwest + Mid-South + Southeast deposit franchise) under continued Chairman + CEO James Ryan III since May 2019 (~6-year tenure as Old National Bancorp CEO; selected post-July 2024 Bremer Financial integration). One of the largest US Midwest specialty Regional Bank Holding Companies. Founded 1834 as Old National Bank in Evansville Indiana (~191-year heritage; selected pioneer Indiana banking franchise); selected post-1834 founding + selected post-1980s NASDAQ listing; selected post-2022 ~$3.0B+ First Midwest Bancorp merger of equals; selected post-July 2024 ~$3.1B Bremer Financial Corporation acquisition. Headquartered in Evansville Indiana; ~4,500-5,000 employees globally with ~$53-55B aggregate assets and ~270+ banking centers across Indiana + Kentucky + Michigan + Wisconsin + Minnesota + Tennessee + Illinois + Ohio. One primary business: Regional Bank Holding Company ~100%. Structure: Net Interest Income ~78%+ ($1.45-1.60B), Noninterest Income ~22% ($400-450M). Geographic mix: Indiana ~30%+ + selected various aggregate ~70% Mid-South + Southeast + Midwest. Midwest Regional Bank Deposit Franchise (~$42-44B deposits): ~$42-44B aggregate deposits (~80%+ aggregate funding mix); selected ~270+ aggregate banking centers; selected ~30-32% aggregate noninterest-bearing deposits; selected ~$160-200B aggregate granular core deposit base; selected ~3.30-3.50% aggregate Net Interest Margin (NIM). Bremer Financial Integration + Wealth Management pipeline: selected continued post-July 2024 ~$3.1B Bremer Financial acquisition (~$15.6B aggregate Bremer assets at close + ~$10B+ aggregate Bremer deposits + Bremer Minnesota franchise); selected ~$31-34B aggregate Wealth Management + Investment Advisory + Trust + Retirement + Brokerage AUM; selected ~$255-275M aggregate Wealth + Investment Advisory revenue. Chairman + CEO James Ryan III since May 2019 (~6-year tenure); CFO John Moran. Capital position: ~$0.56 aggregate annual dividend (~28%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.5-4.0% aggregate dividend yield); ~$200-250M aggregate FY2025 buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$420-470M FY2025; CET1 ~11.5-12.0%; net leverage moderate; investment-grade Baa1/BBB+ credit rating; ~320-330M diluted shares. FY2026 thesis: Midwest deposit franchise (~$42-44B deposits + ~3.30-3.50% NIM) + Bremer Financial integration + Wealth Management + Investment Advisory + ~$31-34B AUM pipeline + selected ~$53-55B aggregate assets + selected ~270+ aggregate banking centers footprint expansion. Risks: Truist + KeyCorp + Fifth Third + Huntington + Regions + Comerica + Wintrust Financial competitive displacement + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + Bremer Financial integration considerations + Commercial Real Estate cycle considerations.