Research · Sep 3, 2026
Madrigal FY2025 Rezdiffra revenue ~$445M — tracking toward $750-850M FY2026 annualized run rate at ~1,825 net patient adds/quarter. ~15,800 active patients at FY2025 exit vs ~100-300K diagnosed F2-F3 MASH in the US under specialist care. THR-β mechanism (direct hepatic fat reduction) mechanistically complementary to GLP-1 (systemic weight loss), not necessarily competitive. FY2026 thesis: GLP-1 MASH approval (expected semaglutide NDA FY2026) creates combination therapy opportunity; non-invasive FibroScan/ELF adoption expands diagnosable patient pool; cirrhosis F4 Phase 3 data by FY2027 could double addressable market; cash ~$1.6B provides runway through profitability inflection.
Research · Sep 3, 2026
Novo Nordisk's FY2025 revenue grew ~14% — a sharp deceleration from prior years' 25-31% — as Lilly Zepbound reached ~50% US obesity market share and PBM prior authorization limited Wegovy access. EPS DKK ~38 grew ~12%. The investment thesis shifted from near-term growth to pipeline optionality: CagriSema (semaglutide + cagrilintide) showed 22-25% body weight reduction in Phase 2, significantly superior to Wegovy's 15%. Phase 3 data expected FY2026-FY2027 is the primary re-rating catalyst for restoring product leadership vs tirzepatide.
Research · Jun 9, 2026
Viking Therapeutics dropped 25% on new weight-loss drug safety data. What the GLP-1 cohort spillover means for LLY, NVO, AMGN.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Eli Lilly's shares fell despite Foundayo (orforglipron) FDA approval due to geopolitical tensions, but the oral GLP-1's no-restrictions profile positions it to challenge Novo's injectable dominance. LLY's stellar growth (45% revenue surge) contrasts Novo's slowdown (-5-13% 2026 guidance), making the dip a potential entry point. Watch initial uptake and competitive filings for share shifts.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
FDA approval of Lilly's oral obesity pill Foundayo (orforglipron) intensifies rivalry with Novo's Wegovy, with Lilly's superior growth and oral convenience poised to capture needle-averse patients. NVO's guidance cuts highlight vulnerabilities, favoring LLY overweight amid 45% revenue surge vs. NVO's 6%. Key: Q1 2026 uptake and Medicare dynamics.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
CVS Health's recent settlement with the FTC over insulin pricing marks a pivotal moment in the pharmaceutical landscape. This article analyzes the potential winners and losers among pharmacies and drugmakers as regulatory scrutiny intensifies, highlighting key players like Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Walgreens Boots Alliance.
