Research · Sep 3, 2026
[NEXT] NextDecade Thesis 2026: A Rio-Grande-LNG + Carbon-Capture Compounder
NextDecade Corporation (NASDAQ: NEXT), headquartered in Houston, Texas, is a Rio-Grande-LNG-Export-and-Carbon-Capture + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-LNG-Export leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-Phase-2 + emerging-Phase-3 + emerging-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS services to substantial multi-cycle Long-Term-LNG-Sale-and-Purchase-Agreement-SPA-Counterparty (Shell + TotalEnergies + ExxonMobil + Engie + Galp + China-Gas + Itochu + INPEX-Mitsui-Sumitomo) customer base. Distinctive multi-cycle NextDecade-and-Houston-TX-and-Rio-Grande-LNG heritage: founded 2010 as Harmony Energy by Matt Schatzman; 2015 NextDecade-renaming; 2017 NASDAQ NextDecade-IPO; 2018 Matt Schatzman Founder-Chair-and-CEO; 2023 substantial Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID (~$18.4B Construction) + 2023 substantial Bechtel-Phase-1-Construction-EPC-Contract; 2024-2027 substantial Phase-1-Construction (3-trains + ~17.6 MTPA Production-Capacity). Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 2010 Harmony Energy founding; 2015 NextDecade-renaming; 2017 NASDAQ-IPO; 2018 Matt Schatzman CEO; 2023 substantial Phase-1-FID + Bechtel-EPC-Contract; 2024-2027 Phase-1-Construction; 2024-2025 substantial Phase-2-and-Phase-3-emerging-FID + emerging-Carbon-Capture-CCS; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle pre-commercial-Phase-1-Construction + emerging-Phase-1-Substantially-Complete-by-2027. Under Founder-Chair-and-CEO Matt Schatzman (since 2018, ~7+ year founder-Schatzman-and-NextDecade-and-Cheniere-Energy entrepreneur), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$0-50M, adj. EBITDA ~negative-$220-280M, adj. EPS ~negative-$0.95-1.30, net debt ~$8.5-10.5B, and ~265-280M shares outstanding. The first deep-dive — Rio-Grande-LNG-and-Carbon-Capture-and-Phase-1-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-LNG-Export franchise — covers entire business + NextDecade positioning. Geographic + Employee + Phase composition: ~150-200+ employees + Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-3-trains-Brownsville-TX + ~17.6 MTPA Phase-1-Production-Capacity + emerging-Phase-2-FERC-Approval + emerging-Phase-3-emerging-FERC-Approval (Additional-3-trains-Capacity-up-to-~30 MTPA total). Revenue mix: Rio-Grande-LNG-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-LNG-Export-and-Carbon-Capture ~95-99% emerging-revenue (Phase-1-largest + Phase-2 + Phase-3 + Carbon-Capture-Sequestration); Emerging-Other ~1-5%. Customer base: Long-Term-LNG-SPA-Counterparty Shell + TotalEnergies + ExxonMobil + Engie + Galp + China-Gas + Itochu + INPEX-Mitsui-Sumitomo + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-SPA-counterparty + emerging-Carbon-Capture-Rio-Grande-LNG-counterparty. Distinctive multi-cycle 2023-Phase-1-FID-and-Bechtel-EPC-Contract. Competes with Cheniere Energy (LNG largest-public-US-LNG-Export most-direct-larger-Cheniere-Energy-comp + Sabine-Pass + Corpus-Christi), Venture Global LNG (VG + 2025-IPO + Calcasieu-Pass + Plaquemines + emerging-CP2-FID-pending most-direct-Venture-Global-comp), Tellurian (Woodside-Energy-WDS-acquired 2024 + Driftwood-LNG), Sempra (SRE + Sempra-Infrastructure + Cameron-LNG + Port-Arthur-LNG-FID-2023), Sempra Infrastructure (Sempra-subsidiary), Freeport LNG (private + emerging-Freeport-Train-4-FID-pending), Cameron LNG (Sempra-Infrastructure-subsidiary + Mitsubishi-and-Mitsui-and-Total), Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP), Driftwood LNG (Woodside-acquired 2024), Plaquemines LNG (VG), Calcasieu Pass LNG (VG), CP2 LNG (VG + emerging-FID-pending), Delfin Midstream (private), Magnolia LNG (private + emerging-FID), Lake Charles LNG (Energy-Transfer-ET-and-Shell + emerging-FID), Energy Transfer LNG (ET-subsidiary), Eagle LNG Partners (Crowley + small-scale-LNG), Stabilis Solutions (SLNG); Long-Term-LNG-SPA Shell (SHEL), TotalEnergies (TTE + Cameron-LNG), ExxonMobil (XOM + Mozambique + Papua-New-Guinea + Qatar-LNG-partnership), BP (BP + Tortue-LNG), Chevron (CVX + Gorgon + Wheatstone), ConocoPhillips (COP + APLNG), Engie (ENGI-PA), Galp Energia (GALP-PT + Mozambique), China-Gas Holdings (private), Itochu (8001-T), INPEX (1605-T + Australia-and-Indonesia-LNG), Mitsui (8031-T + Cameron-Partner), Sumitomo (8053-T), JERA (private + Japan-largest-LNG-Importer), Tokyo Gas (9531-T), Osaka Gas (9532-T), KOGAS (036460-KS), PetroChina (857-HK), Sinopec (386-HK), CNOOC (883-HK), Petronas (private), Qatar Energy (private + largest-LNG-Exporter), Saudi Aramco (2222-AR + emerging-LNG-Trader), Equinor (EQNR), Repsol (REP-MC), Eni (E), Naturgy (NTGY-MC), Iberdrola (IBE-MC), Centrica (CNA-LN), EDF (EDF-PA), Uniper (UN01-DE), RWE (RWE-DE); Carbon-Capture-CCS Occidental Petroleum (OXY + Stratos + 1PointFive-CCS), 1PointFive (Oxy-subsidiary), Climeworks (private + Direct-Air-Capture), Carbon Engineering (Oxy-acquired 2023), Aker Carbon Capture (ACC-OL), Linde (LIN + Industrial-Gases-and-CCS), Air Liquide (AI-PA), Air Products (APD + Louisiana-Clean-Energy-Complex-Blue-Hydrogen-CCS), Equinor (EQNR + Northern-Lights-CCS-Norway-JV), Shell (SHEL + Quest-CCS), TotalEnergies (TTE), BP (BP + Net-Zero-Teesside-CCS-UK), Chevron (CVX + Gorgon-CCS), ExxonMobil (XOM + Houston-Ship-Channel-CCS-Hub + LaBarge-Wyoming-CCS), CF Industries (CF + Ammonia-and-CCS), Yara International (YAR-OL), Nutrien (NTR); EPC-Contract Bechtel (private + largest-LNG-EPC + Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Contract), JGC Holdings (1963-T), Chiyoda Corporation (6366-T), Saipem (SPM-MI), TechnipFMC (FTI), KBR (KBR), Air Liquide (AI-PA + Engineering-LNG-Liquefaction-Technology), Linde (LIN + Engineering-Liquefaction-Technology), McDermott International (private + 2022-Whitebox-Apollo-restructure), Fluor (FLR), Worley (WOR-AU). The second deep-dive — Matt-Schatzman + 2023-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID + Bechtel-EPC + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers Matt-Schatzman-founder-CEO (~7+ year founder-Schatzman-and-NextDecade-and-Cheniere-Energy entrepreneur) expertise + Founder Matt Schatzman + multi-cycle-NextDecade-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 2017-NASDAQ-NextDecade-IPO + 2023-Phase-1-FID + Bechtel-EPC + 2024-2027-Phase-1-Construction + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID transformational-platform, emerging-multi-cycle US-LNG-Export + emerging-Phase-1-Commercial-from-2027 + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-Carbon-Capture-CCS structural-tailwinds. Multi-cycle no-dividend (pre-commercial-Phase-1-Construction + emerging-Phase-1-Cash-Flow-from-2027). Multi-decade compounder thesis combines NextDecade-and-Houston-TX ~15+ year heritage (founded 2010 + 2017 NASDAQ-IPO + 2023-Phase-1-FID), ~150-200+ employees + ~17.6 MTPA Phase-1-Capacity + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Additional-3-trains-up-to-~30 MTPA total, 2023-Phase-1-FID + Bechtel-EPC + 2024-2027-Construction + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID, Matt Schatzman + NextDecade + Cheniere-Energy expertise, no-dividend + Sub-IG-Project-Finance-Construction-Debt balance-sheet, emerging-US-LNG-Export + emerging-Phase-1-Commercial-from-2027 + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3 + emerging-Carbon-Capture-CCS structural-tailwinds. Capital position is Sub-IG-Project-Finance-Construction-Debt (B3/B-), no-dividend + no-buyback, conservative-and-Phase-1-Construction-Debt-substantially-Phase-1-funded-and-non-recourse: net debt ~$8.5-10.5B (Project-Finance-Phase-1-funded-and-non-recourse), B3/B- equivalent, $0.30-0.60B liquidity, no-dividend + no-buyback (pre-commercial) + multi-cycle-disciplined-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID + emerging-Phase-1-Construction-CapEx, ~265-280M shares + emerging-share-issuance-track-record. At ~$5-12 per share, equity value ~$1.4-3.4B, EV ~$10-13B. Base case: Phase-1-Construction-Progress on-schedule + Phase-1-Commercial-from-2027 + emerging-Phase-2-FID + emerging-Phase-3 + emerging-Carbon-Capture-CCS + revenue $0-100M + ~5-15% return + emerging-Phase-1-2027-Cash-Flow-pull-forward. Bull case: Phase-1-Construction accelerates + Phase-1-Commercial-from-2026 + emerging-Phase-2-FID-and-Construction inflects-substantially + emerging-Phase-3-FID inflects-substantially + emerging-Carbon-Capture-CCS inflects + revenue $50-150M + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (Cheniere + Venture-Global + Sempra + Freeport-LNG + Shell + TotalEnergies + ExxonMobil + BP + Chevron + ConocoPhillips + Engie + Itochu + INPEX-Mitsui-Sumitomo + Qatar-Energy + Saudi-Aramco + private-equity-LNG-Apollo-Carlyle-KKR-Blackstone-Brookfield interest) + 50-150%+ return + Phase-1-cash-flow-pull-forward + Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID-accelerated. Bear case: Phase-1-Construction stresses + emerging-Phase-1-cost-overrun-and-delays + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID-disappoints + adj. EBITDA worsens + de-rate (substantial-equity-dilution-emerging-from-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID-equity-issuance) + flat-to-substantially-negative.