NextDecade Thesis 2026: A Rio-Grande-LNG + Carbon-Capture Compounder

Key Takeaways

• NextDecade Corporation (NASDAQ: NEXT), the Houston-TX-headquartered Rio-Grande-LNG-Export-and-Carbon-Capture + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-LNG-Export leader, closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue ~$0-50M (~~pre-commercial-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-and-Pre-Revenue + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-Substantially-Complete-by-2027), adjusted EBITDA ~negative-$220-280M (~~pre-commercial-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-OpEx-and-G&A), adjusted EPS ~negative-$0.95-1.30, net debt ~$8.5-10.5B (~~Project-Finance-Construction-Debt-substantially-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-funded-and-non-recourse), and ~~265-280M shares under Founder-Chair-and-CEO Matt Schatzman (since 2018, ~~7+ year founder-Schatzman-and-NextDecade-and-Cheniere-Energy entrepreneur); Founder Matt Schatzman + multi-cycle-NextDecade-Capital-Management.
• Operates substantial multi-cycle ~~150-200+ employees + ~~Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-3-trains-and-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG-FERC-Approval-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-emerging-FERC-Approval + ~~17.6 MTPA Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Production-Capacity providing distinctive multi-cycle Rio-Grande-LNG-Export + emerging-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS platform.
• Distinctive multi-cycle NextDecade-and-Houston-TX-and-Rio-Grande-LNG heritage: founded 2010 as Harmony Energy by Matt Schatzman + multi-cycle-NextDecade-entrepreneurs + 2015 NextDecade-renaming + 2017 NASDAQ NextDecade-IPO + 2023 substantial Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID (~$18.4B Construction) + 2023 substantial Bechtel-Phase-1-Construction-EPC-Contract + 2024-2027 substantial Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction.
• Distinctive multi-cycle Rio-Grande-LNG-and-Carbon-Capture-and-Phase-1-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-LNG-Export (~~95-99% emerging-revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-largest-business + multi-cycle-emerging-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG + multi-cycle-emerging-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + multi-cycle-emerging-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG) + Emerging-Other (~~1-5% revenue) platform.
• Customer base: substantial multi-cycle Long-Term-LNG-Sale-and-Purchase-Agreement-SPA-Counterparty (Shell + TotalEnergies + ExxonMobil + Engie + Galp + China-Gas + Itochu + INPEX-Mitsui-Sumitomo + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Long-Term-SPA-counterparty) + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG-counterparty.
• Sub-IG-Project-Finance-Construction-Debt (B3/B-) balance sheet (multi-cycle-emerging-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-Debt-substantially-Phase-1-funded-and-non-recourse), no-dividend (multi-cycle-pre-commercial-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Cash-Flow-Generation-from-2027), FY2026 turns on Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-Progress + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG + Matt Schatzman-strategic-execution.

Company Background

NextDecade Corporation (NASDAQ: NEXT), headquartered in Houston, Texas (corporate HQ + Houston-TX-NextDecade + emerging-multi-cycle-Houston-TX-NextDecade + multi-cycle-NextDecade-and-emerging-multi-cycle-NextDecade), is a Rio-Grande-LNG-Export-and-Carbon-Capture + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-LNG-Export leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS services to substantial multi-cycle Long-Term-LNG-Sale-and-Purchase-Agreement-SPA-Counterparty + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG-counterparty customer base. The company has a distinctive multi-cycle NextDecade-and-Houston-TX-and-Rio-Grande-LNG heritage: founded 2010 as Harmony Energy by Matt Schatzman + multi-cycle-NextDecade-entrepreneurs; 2015 NextDecade-renaming; 2017 NASDAQ NextDecade-IPO; 2023 substantial Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID (~$18.4B Construction) + 2023 substantial Bechtel-Phase-1-Construction-EPC-Contract; 2024-2027 substantial Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction (3-trains + ~17.6 MTPA Production-Capacity).

Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 2010 Harmony Energy founding by Matt Schatzman; 2015 NextDecade-renaming; 2017 NASDAQ NextDecade-IPO; 2018 Matt Schatzman Founder-Chair-and-CEO; 2023 substantial Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID + Bechtel-EPC-Contract; 2024-2027 substantial Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction; 2024-2025 substantial Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-emerging-FID + emerging-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle pre-commercial-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-Substantially-Complete-by-2027 + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-emerging-FID.

Under Founder-Chair-and-CEO Matt Schatzman (since 2018, ~~7+ year founder-Schatzman-and-NextDecade-and-Cheniere-Energy entrepreneur providing distinctive multi-cycle-NextDecade-and-emerging-multi-cycle-NextDecade + 2017-NASDAQ-NextDecade-IPO + 2023-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID-and-Bechtel-EPC-Contract execution + 2024-2027-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction + multi-cycle-strategic-execution + multi-cycle-emerging-NextDecade expertise; Founder Matt Schatzman + multi-cycle-NextDecade-Capital-Management), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$0-50M, adjusted EBITDA ~negative-$220-280M (pre-commercial-Phase-1-Construction-OpEx), adjusted EPS ~negative-$0.95-1.30, net debt ~$8.5-10.5B (~Project-Finance-Phase-1-funded-and-non-recourse), and ~~265-280M shares outstanding.

Deep-Dive 1: Rio-Grande-LNG-and-Carbon-Capture-and-Phase-1-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-LNG-Export Franchise

The first deep-dive — Rio-Grande-LNG-and-Carbon-Capture-and-Phase-1-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-LNG-Export franchise — covers entire Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS business + distinctive multi-cycle NextDecade-and-emerging-multi-cycle-NextDecade positioning.

Geographic + Employee + Phase composition: distinctive multi-cycle ~~150-200+ employees + Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-3-trains-Brownsville-TX-and-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG-FERC-Approval-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-emerging-FERC-Approval + ~~17.6 MTPA Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Production-Capacity (with emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Additional-3-trains-Capacity-up-to-~30 MTPA total) providing distinctive multi-cycle NextDecade-and-emerging-multi-cycle-NextDecade.

Revenue mix:

• Rio-Grande-LNG-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-LNG-Export-and-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS (~~95-99% emerging-revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-largest-business + multi-cycle-emerging-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG + multi-cycle-emerging-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + multi-cycle-emerging-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG): substantial multi-cycle Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG (emerging-commercial-from-2027) + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS.
• Emerging-Other (~~1-5% revenue): emerging-multi-cycle-Other.

Customer base: substantial multi-cycle Long-Term-LNG-Sale-and-Purchase-Agreement-SPA-Counterparty (Shell + TotalEnergies + ExxonMobil + Engie + Galp + China-Gas + Itochu + INPEX-Mitsui-Sumitomo + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Long-Term-SPA-counterparty) + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG-counterparty.

Distinctive multi-cycle 2023-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID-and-Bechtel-Phase-1-Construction-EPC-Contract: substantial 2023 Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID (~$18.4B Construction) + 2023 Bechtel-Phase-1-Construction-EPC-Contract + 2024-2027 Phase-1-Construction providing distinctive multi-cycle NextDecade-and-emerging-multi-cycle-NextDecade.

Emerging structural-tailwinds: emerging-multi-cycle US-LNG-Export (substantial multi-cycle-emerging-Natural-Gas-Supply-glut-driven multi-cycle-emerging-US-LNG-Export-substantial-emerging-leading-supplier-to-Europe-and-Asia + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Commercial-from-2027 + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG) demand environment.

FY2026 catalyst is Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-Progress + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG + Matt Schatzman-strategic-execution.

Competes in US-LNG-Export-and-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-and-Carbon-Capture space with Cheniere Energy (LNG largest-public-US-LNG-Export most-direct-larger-Cheniere-Energy-LNG-Export-comp + Sabine-Pass + Corpus-Christi), Venture Global LNG (VG + 2025-IPO + Calcasieu-Pass-LNG + Plaquemines-LNG + emerging-CP2-LNG-FID-pending + emerging-Delta-LNG most-direct-Venture-Global-LNG-Export-comp), Tellurian (Woodside-Energy-WDS-acquired 2024 + Driftwood-LNG), NextDecade (NEXT + Rio-Grande-LNG), Sempra (SRE + Sempra-Infrastructure-and-LNG + Cameron-LNG + Port-Arthur-LNG-FID-2023), Sempra Infrastructure (Sempra-SRE-subsidiary), Freeport LNG (private + Freeport-LNG + emerging-Freeport-Train-4-FID-pending), Cameron LNG (Sempra-Infrastructure-subsidiary + Mitsubishi-and-Mitsui-and-Total + Cameron-LNG-Train-4-FID-pending), Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP + Cheniere-Sabine-Pass-Liquefaction-and-emerging-Sabine-Pass-Train-7), Driftwood LNG (Woodside-Energy-WDS-acquired 2024), Rio Grande LNG (NEXT + NextDecade), Plaquemines LNG (VG + Venture-Global), Calcasieu Pass LNG (VG + Venture-Global), CP2 LNG (VG + Venture-Global-emerging-CP2-FID-pending), Delfin Midstream (private + Delfin-LNG-emerging-FID), Magnolia LNG (private + LNG-emerging-FID-pending), Lake Charles LNG (Energy-Transfer-ET-and-Shell-and-emerging-FID), Energy Transfer LNG (Energy-Transfer-ET-subsidiary + Lake-Charles-LNG-and-emerging-FID), Eagle LNG Partners (Crowley + Eagle-LNG + Jacksonville-FL + small-scale-LNG), Stabilis Solutions (SLNG + small-scale-LNG-and-emerging-emerging-stabilis-LNG); Long-Term-LNG-Sale-and-Purchase-Agreement-SPA-Counterparty Shell (SHEL + Shell-LNG largest-public-LNG-Trader most-direct-larger-Shell-LNG-comp), TotalEnergies (TTE + TotalEnergies-LNG + Cameron-LNG + emerging-LNG-Trader), ExxonMobil (XOM + ExxonMobil-LNG + Mozambique-LNG + Papua-New-Guinea-LNG + Qatar-LNG-partnership), BP (BP + BP-LNG + Tortue-LNG-Mauritania-Senegal + emerging-LNG-Trader), Chevron (CVX + Chevron-LNG + Gorgon-LNG + Wheatstone-LNG + emerging-LNG-Trader), ConocoPhillips (COP + ConocoPhillips-LNG + APLNG-Australia-Pacific-LNG-and-emerging-LNG-Trader), Engie (ENGI-PA + Engie-LNG + emerging-LNG-Trader), Galp Energia (GALP-PT + Galp-LNG + Mozambique-LNG), China-Gas Holdings (private + China-Gas-LNG-emerging-Long-Term-SPA), Itochu (8001-T + Itochu-LNG-Trader), INPEX (1605-T + INPEX-LNG + Australia-and-Indonesia-LNG-and-emerging-LNG-Trader), Mitsui (8031-T + Mitsui-LNG-Trader + Cameron-LNG-Partner), Sumitomo (8053-T + Sumitomo-LNG-Trader), JERA (private + Japan-largest-LNG-Importer + JERA-LNG-Trader + emerging-LNG-Trader), Tokyo Gas (9531-T + Tokyo-Gas-LNG-and-emerging-LNG-Trader), Osaka Gas (9532-T + Osaka-Gas-LNG-and-emerging-LNG-Trader), KOGAS (036460-KS + Korea-Gas-Corporation-LNG-and-emerging-LNG-Trader), PetroChina (857-HK + PetroChina-LNG-Trader), Sinopec (386-HK + Sinopec-LNG-Trader), CNOOC (883-HK + CNOOC-LNG-Trader), Petronas (private + Malaysia-Petronas-LNG-Trader), Qatar Energy (private + Qatar-LNG-largest-LNG-Exporter + Qatar-Gas-and-RasGas), Saudi Aramco (2222-AR + Aramco-emerging-LNG-Trader), Equinor (EQNR + Equinor-LNG-Trader), Repsol (REP-MC + Repsol-LNG-Trader), Eni (E + Eni-LNG-Trader), Naturgy (NTGY-MC + Naturgy-LNG-Trader), Iberdrola (IBE-MC + Iberdrola-LNG-Trader + emerging-LNG-Trader), Centrica (CNA-LN + Centrica-LNG-Trader), EDF (EDF-PA + EDF-LNG-Trader + emerging-LNG-Trader), Uniper (UN01-DE + Uniper-LNG-Trader), RWE (RWE-DE + RWE-LNG-Trader + emerging-LNG-Trader); Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS Occidental Petroleum (OXY + Oxy-Low-Carbon-Ventures-and-Direct-Air-Capture-Stratos + emerging-1PointFive-CCS), 1PointFive (Oxy-subsidiary + Stratos-and-CCS), Climeworks (private + Climeworks-Direct-Air-Capture), Carbon Engineering (Oxy-OXY-acquired 2023 + Carbon-Engineering-Direct-Air-Capture), Aker Carbon Capture (ACC-OL), Sotera Health (SHC + emerging-CCS-Sterigenics-related), Linde (LIN + Linde-Industrial-Gases-and-CCS), Air Liquide (AI-PA + Air-Liquide-Industrial-Gases-and-CCS), Air Products (APD + Air-Products-Industrial-Gases-and-CCS + emerging-Louisiana-Clean-Energy-Complex-Blue-Hydrogen-CCS), Equinor (EQNR + Equinor-CCS + Northern-Lights-CCS-Norway-JV), Shell (SHEL + Shell-CCS + Quest-CCS), TotalEnergies (TTE + Total-CCS), BP (BP + BP-CCS + Net-Zero-Teesside-CCS-UK + emerging-Northern-Lights-CCS), Chevron (CVX + Gorgon-CCS), ExxonMobil (XOM + ExxonMobil-CCS + Houston-Ship-Channel-CCS-Hub + Cobra-CCS-Indonesia + LaBarge-Wyoming-CCS), CF Industries (CF + CF-Ammonia-and-CCS), Yara International (YAR-OL + Yara-Ammonia-and-CCS), Nutrien (NTR + Nutrien-Ammonia + emerging-CCS); EPC-Contract-Bechtel (private + Bechtel-Engineering-Procurement-and-Construction + largest-private-EPC-LNG-largest-LNG-EPC-Bechtel-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Contract), JGC Holdings (1963-T + JGC-LNG-EPC), Chiyoda Corporation (6366-T + Chiyoda-LNG-EPC), Saipem (SPM-MI + Saipem-LNG-EPC), TechnipFMC (FTI + TechnipFMC-LNG-EPC + emerging-LNG-EPC), KBR (KBR + KBR-LNG-EPC + emerging-LNG-EPC), Air Liquide (AI-PA + Air-Liquide-Engineering-LNG-Liquefaction-Technology + emerging-Cryogenic-LNG-Liquefaction), Linde (LIN + Linde-Engineering-LNG-Liquefaction-Technology), McDermott International (private + 2022-Whitebox-and-Apollo-restructure + McDermott-LNG-EPC), Fluor (FLR + Fluor-EPC + emerging-LNG-EPC), Worley (WOR-AU + Worley-LNG-EPC).

Deep-Dive 2: Matt-Schatzman + 2023-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID-and-Bechtel-EPC + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis

The second deep-dive — Matt-Schatzman + 2023-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID + Bechtel-EPC-Contract + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers distinctive multi-cycle Matt-Schatzman-founder-CEO (~~7+ year founder-Schatzman-and-NextDecade-and-Cheniere-Energy entrepreneur) expertise + Founder Matt Schatzman + multi-cycle-NextDecade-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 2017-NASDAQ-NextDecade-IPO + 2023-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID + Bechtel-EPC-Contract + 2024-2027-Phase-1-Construction + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID transformational-platform, emerging-multi-cycle US-LNG-Export + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Commercial-from-2027 + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG structural-tailwinds.

Matt Schatzman founder-CEO leadership: founder-CEO since 2018 + ~~7+ year founder-Schatzman-and-NextDecade-and-Cheniere-Energy entrepreneur providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2017-NASDAQ-NextDecade-IPO + 2023-Phase-1-FID + Bechtel-EPC-Contract execution + 2024-2027-Phase-1-Construction + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID expertise.

2023-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID-and-Bechtel-EPC-Contract + 2024-2027-Phase-1-Construction transformational-platform: distinctive substantial 2023 Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID (~$18.4B Construction) + 2023 Bechtel-Phase-1-Construction-EPC-Contract + 2024-2027 Phase-1-Construction providing distinctive multi-cycle NextDecade-and-emerging-multi-cycle-NextDecade + multi-cycle-Matt-Schatzman-and-NextDecade.

Multi-cycle no-dividend (multi-cycle-pre-commercial-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Cash-Flow-Generation-from-2027): distinctive multi-cycle no-dividend (multi-cycle-pre-commercial-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-and-cash-reinvestment + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Cash-Flow-Generation-from-2027-emerging-restoration).

Multi-decade compounder thesis combines distinctive multi-cycle NextDecade-and-Houston-TX ~~15+ year heritage (founded 2010 + 2017 NASDAQ-IPO + 2023-Phase-1-FID), ~~150-200+ employees + ~~17.6 MTPA Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Production-Capacity + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Additional-3-trains-Capacity-up-to-~30 MTPA total, 2023-Phase-1-FID + Bechtel-EPC-Contract + 2024-2027-Phase-1-Construction + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID, Matt Schatzman + NextDecade + Cheniere-Energy expertise, no-dividend + Sub-IG-Project-Finance-Construction-Debt balance-sheet, emerging-multi-cycle US-LNG-Export + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Commercial-from-2027 + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG structural-tailwinds.

Consolidated Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position is Sub-IG-Project-Finance-Construction-Debt (B3/B-), no-dividend (multi-cycle-pre-commercial-Phase-1-Construction) + no-buyback, conservative-and-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-Debt-substantially-Phase-1-funded-and-non-recourse: net debt ~$8.5-10.5B (~Project-Finance-Phase-1-substantial-Construction-Debt-funded-and-non-recourse), B3/B- equivalent (Sub-IG-Project-Finance), $0.30-0.60B cash + undrawn revolver + Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-Debt-substantially-Phase-1-funded liquidity, no-dividend + no-buyback (multi-cycle-pre-commercial-Phase-1-Construction-and-Cash-Flow-Generation-from-2027) + multi-cycle-disciplined-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID-and-Carbon-Capture-CCS + emerging-Phase-1-Construction-CapEx + multi-cycle-employee-and-LNG-Construction-compensation, ~~265-280M shares + multi-cycle-emerging-share-issuance-track-record-emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID-funded.

Key Core Metrics

Market Evaluation

At ~$5-12 per share, equity value ~$1.4-3.4B, EV ~$10-13B, providing ~~Negative-EPS-pre-commercial-Phase-1-Construction + ~~Phase-1-2027-Cash-Flow-implied-multiple — Pre-commercial-Phase-1-Construction-Speculative-multiple consistent with multi-cycle 2017-NASDAQ-NextDecade-IPO + 2023-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID-and-Bechtel-EPC-Contract + 2024-2027-Phase-1-Construction + emerging-multi-cycle US-LNG-Export + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Commercial-from-2027 + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG tailwinds-and-emerging-Project-Finance-and-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID-execution-risk.

Base case: Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-Progress on-schedule + Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Commercial-from-2027 + emerging-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID-emerging + emerging-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-emerging + emerging-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG + revenue $0-100M + adj. EBITDA negative-$200-260M (pre-commercial) + ~5-15% return + emerging-Phase-1-2027-Cash-Flow-pull-forward + Phase-2-FID-acceleration.

Bull case: Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction accelerates + Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Commercial-from-2026 + emerging-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID-and-Construction inflects-substantially + emerging-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG-FID inflects-substantially + emerging-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG inflects + revenue $50-150M + adj. EBITDA negative-$170-230M (improving) + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (Cheniere-Energy + Venture-Global-LNG + Sempra + Freeport-LNG + Cameron-LNG + Shell + TotalEnergies + ExxonMobil + BP + Chevron + ConocoPhillips + Engie + Itochu + INPEX-Mitsui-Sumitomo + Qatar-Energy + Saudi-Aramco + private-equity-LNG-Apollo-Carlyle-KKR-Blackstone-Brookfield interest) + 50-150%+ return + Phase-1-cash-flow-pull-forward + Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID-substantially-accelerated.

Bear case: Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction stresses + emerging-Phase-1-Construction-cost-overrun-and-delays + emerging-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID-disappoints + adj. EBITDA negative-$280-340M (worsening) + de-rate (substantial-equity-dilution-emerging-from-Phase-2-and-Phase-3-FID-equity-issuance) + flat-to-substantially-negative.

FY2026 turns on Phase-1-Rio-Grande-LNG-Construction-Progress + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-2-Rio-Grande-LNG-Final-Investment-Decision-FID + emerging-multi-cycle-Phase-3-Rio-Grande-LNG + emerging-multi-cycle-Carbon-Capture-and-Sequestration-CCS-Rio-Grande-LNG + Matt Schatzman-strategic-execution.

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