Research · Sep 3, 2026
Strategy (MSTR) held ~560,000 BTC (~$37B cost basis) at FY2025 year-end after executing ~$29B of capital raises under the 21/21 Plan. BTC Yield of ~34% YoY means each diluted share commands 34% more Bitcoin than a year prior — the core accretion argument. The FY2026 thesis: does the premium-to-NAV flywheel sustain (~75-90% premium in FY2025)? The loop breaks if Bitcoin corrects sharply, equity markets lose appetite for leveraged-Bitcoin equity, or $7-8B in preferred/debt obligations strain cash flows — but holds and compounds if Bitcoin appreciation and continued capital raises maintain BTC Yield above 20%+.
Research · Jun 9, 2026
Long-term holders distributed $2.4B BTC in 48 hours. On-chain LTH-to-STH pattern as cycle inflection signal. COIN, MSTR, MARA, IBIT positioning.
Research · Jun 5, 2026
Bitcoin's worst week in months meets MSTR's amplified leverage as Strategy sale rumors swirl. What the math says about the next move.
Research · Jun 4, 2026
Bitcoin at February lows reprices COIN at $163 and MSTR at $127. Transaction volume versus NAV premium compression — asymmetric outcomes.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Bitcoin's rally to $73K on hot 3.3% CPI data highlights US-listed crypto winners like MSTR and COIN. Miners MARA, RIOT, and CLSK benefit from holdings and efficiency, with AI pivots adding upside. Ranked by conviction: MSTR leads.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Morgan Stanley's launch of the lowest-cost Bitcoin ETF marks a milestone in institutional adoption, benefiting custodians like COIN and BK, exchanges CME/NDAQ, issuer MS, and proxy MSTR. Analysis ranks COIN top for its ETF custody dominance amid record volumes and diversification. Watch ETF inflows and crypto derivatives growth as key catalysts.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
The CFTC's settlement with ex-FTX exec Nishad Singh highlights enduring regulatory risks for public crypto firms, with exchanges like COIN most exposed while miners pivoting to AI (MARA, CLSK) offer relative safety. Financials show robust revenue growth across the board but persistent losses and high valuations. Ranked conviction favors diversified miners over pure-play exchanges.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Bitcoin's drop to $66,000 tests corporate BTC treasuries, with MicroStrategy and low-leverage miners like RIOT and CLSK best positioned via strong growth and balance sheets. High-debt sellers like MARA face outsized risks. Ranked conviction favors HODLers with operational edges.
