[MSTR] Strategy: Q3 2026 Earnings Test STRC Buybacks and Bitcoin Per Share

Strategy is the largest publicly listed holder of bitcoin and still runs the enterprise analytics software business it started with[1]. Its Strategy Q3 2026 earnings, covering Q3 2026, the three months ended September 30, 2026, are scheduled for 2026-10-29[2]. The latest formal quarterly report covers the second quarter of 2026: software revenue was $122.4 million, up 6.9% year over year, at a 66.6% gross margin[3], but a lower quarter-end bitcoin price produced an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on digital assets and an $8.62 billion net loss attributable to common stockholders[4]. The company gives no software revenue or profit guidance, but on October 5 it pre-announced an unaudited third-quarter gain on digital assets of about $20.91 billion, a related deferred tax expense of about $1.88 billion and a September 30 digital asset carrying value of about $70.82 billion[5]. As of October 20, the Drillr earnings calendar showed a consensus of $17.25 in earnings per share and $128.6 million in revenue[2]; the sample size is not stated, and it is unclear whether the EPS figure already reflects the October 5 pre-announcement.

Three things matter most in this report. The first is STRC issuance versus buybacks: STRC raised $5.465 billion in the second quarter and was the company's main source of money for buying bitcoin[6], yet every weekly filing in the third quarter showed zero STRC issuance while the company spent about $1.379 billion repurchasing about 14.3 million shares[7], and management said it will recommend keeping the annual dividend rate at 12.00% until STRC has demonstrated sustained, healthy trading near $100[8], so the quarterly issuance and buyback totals will show how long this support has lasted. The second is who pays the roughly $1.76 billion a year in preferred dividends and interest[9]: between early July and August 9 the company sold 5,553 bitcoin to fund payments and buybacks[10][11], then switched to common-stock sales to refill its dollar reserve, and the third quarter is the first full quarter that tests this shift. The third is whether bitcoin per share is still growing: second-quarter BTC Yield was 5.0%[12], but in the third quarter common-stock sales added about 50.3 million shares while holdings rose by only 1,666 bitcoin[7], and the $20.91 billion accounting gain came from a higher bitcoin price[5], which by itself does not show that issuance is still adding bitcoin per share.

Company Background and Business Structure

Strategy evolved from an enterprise software company into a bitcoin treasury company, and that shift explains the shape of its financial statements today. Founded in 1989 and based in Tysons Corner, Virginia, the company was long known for its MicroStrategy business intelligence software and changed its name to Strategy on August 11, 2025[1]. It first bought bitcoin in August 2020, began funding continued purchases with common stock and convertible notes in 2021, launched five classes of perpetual preferred stock (STRF, STRC, STRE, STRK and STRD) in 2025, and set up a USD Reserve in December to pay dividends and interest[13]. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor leads the bitcoin strategy, Phong Le is chief executive officer[14], and Andrew Kang is chief financial officer[15].

The bitcoin treasury dominates the balance sheet, and it is funded by continuous securities issuance rather than operating revenue. The company sells Class A common stock and preferred stock through at-the-market (ATM) programs and uses the proceeds to buy and hold bitcoin; on June 30 the carrying value of its digital assets was $49.67 billion, about 94.5% of $52.56 billion in total assets[16]. On the liability and senior-claim side sit $6.71 billion of convertible notes[6] and perpetual preferred stock with a liquidation preference of $15.46 billion[16]. Starting June 29, the company added a capital framework: a dollar reserve covering at least 12 months of dividends plus interest, a monthly review of the STRC dividend rate, repurchase programs for preferred and common stock, and a BTC Monetization Program that allows bitcoin sales[17].

The software business is the company's only source of operating revenue, but it is far smaller than the bitcoin holdings. The company sells the AI-driven analytics platform Strategy One and the semantic-layer product Strategy Mosaic to enterprises, and reports revenue in four lines: subscription services (cloud), product support, product licenses and other services[1]. Customers are moving from on-premises perpetual licenses to ratably recognized cloud subscriptions, and full support for on-premises licenses ends on December 31, 2026[18]. Software costs are mainly people and cloud hosting, and cash comes from upfront billing on annual subscription and support contracts[19].

Financial History and Current Position

Software revenue has been roughly flat for years, while annual profit has been set by bitcoin's fair value since 2025. Total software revenue was $510.8 million, $499.3 million, $496.3 million, $463.5 million and $477.2 million from 2021 through 2025; in 2025 subscription services revenue was $175.7 million, up 64.5%, and product support revenue was $204.2 million, down 16.2%[20]. In 2025 the company began measuring bitcoin at fair value, recognized an unrealized loss of about $5.4 billion for the year and posted a net loss of $3.85 billion[21], ending the year with about 672,500 bitcoin[22].

The reported losses in the first two quarters of 2026 both came from falling bitcoin prices, while software kept growing modestly. First-quarter revenue was $124.3 million, up 11.9%, at a 67.1% gross margin, with a $14.46 billion unrealized loss on digital assets and a $12.54 billion net loss[23]. Second-quarter revenue was $122.4 million, up 6.9%, at a 66.6% gross margin[3]; the quarter's $8.32 billion unrealized loss, partly offset by a $113.9 million gain on convertible-note repurchases, left a net loss of $8.22 billion, and after $400.7 million of preferred dividends (versus $49.1 million a year earlier) the net loss attributable to common stockholders was $8.62 billion[4].

The June 30 balance sheet consists almost entirely of bitcoin and the securities that financed it. Of $52.56 billion in total assets, digital assets were $49.67 billion, while cash and cash equivalents of $1.712 billion and short-term investments of $736 million totaled about $2.45 billion; long-term debt was $6.67 billion and stockholders' equity was $30.89 billion, down from $44.12 billion at the end of 2025[16]. In May the company repurchased $1.50 billion principal of its 0% convertible notes due 2029 for about $1.38 billion, roughly an 8% discount to par, cutting outstanding convertible principal from $8.21 billion to $6.71 billion[6]. The bitcoin price was $58,714 on June 30[12], leaving the carrying value of the 846,000 bitcoin about $14.27 billion below cost[24].

The formal third-quarter statements are not out yet, but the weekly 8-K filings and the October 5 pre-announcement already sketch the main outline. The company pre-announced a third-quarter gain on digital assets of about $20.91 billion; because the fair value of its bitcoin was back above cost on September 30, the $4.12 billion deferred tax asset created by the bitcoin loss as of June 30 was reversed and the allowance against it was released, producing an income tax benefit of about $4.12 billion that cut deferred tax expense from about $6.00 billion to $1.88 billion[5]. On September 30 the company held 847,666 bitcoin at an average cost of $75,437[7]; on October 18 it held 848,517 bitcoin, with $4.83 billion in the USD Reserve and $447.3 million in USD Cash[25].

Operating Model

All of Strategy's operating revenue comes from software; bitcoin itself produces neither revenue nor operating cash flow. Total revenue is the sum of subscription services, product support, product licenses and other services, and the migration is replacing license and support revenue with ratably recognized subscription revenue[19]. In the second quarter subscription revenue was $62.86 million, up 54.0%, product support revenue was $40.25 million, down 22.7%, and product license revenue fell from $7.18 million to $3.67 million[4]. The direction of this swap is more subscription and less support, and the lag depends on how fast on-premises customers migrate before support ends in late 2026.

Operating profit is set almost entirely by the quarter-end bitcoin price, and the software business on its own runs at a small loss. In the second quarter software gross profit was $81.55 million against $97.14 million of combined sales, research and administrative expenses, a software operating loss of about $15.6 million, while the fair-value loss on digital assets was $8.32 billion[4]. Net income then adds convertible-repurchase gains and a tax charge that swings with bitcoin's carrying value relative to cost[5], and income attributable to common stockholders also deducts preferred dividends, which were $400.7 million in the second quarter[4]. A change in the quarter-end price therefore flows straight into operating profit in the same quarter with no lag, while dividends are a fixed cost that accrues on outstanding stated amount and the dividend rate.

Cash flow for the bitcoin treasury comes from financing, and upfront software billings are not enough to cover fixed charges. The company raises money by selling common and preferred stock through ATMs and by issuing convertible notes, and spends it on bitcoin, the dollar reserve, roughly $1.76 billion a year of preferred dividends and interest, and STRC buybacks[9]. Since June the company can also sell bitcoin when financing falls short, and it sold about 6,948 bitcoin across the second quarter and July-August[24][11], while the reserve policy requires cash of at least 12 months of dividends plus interest[17]. The company does not disclose software customer counts, annual recurring revenue or net retention, and BTC Yield does not deduct the senior claims of preferred stock and debt, so both the migration and per-share value can only be judged indirectly.

Industry and Competitive Position

In the emerging category of bitcoin treasury companies, Strategy is the largest listed holder and the only one funding itself at scale with several classes of perpetual preferred stock. On September 30 it held 847,666 bitcoin[7], far more than other treasury companies such as Metaplanet and Strive, and its real competition is the other ways investors can get bitcoin exposure, including spot bitcoin ETFs, other treasury companies and high-yield fixed-income products. STRC's appeal depends on its yield and price volatility relative to other high-yield instruments, while the appeal of MSTR common stock depends on whether bitcoin per share can grow. In the second half of 2026 several smaller treasury companies sold bitcoin to repay debt, and funding conditions across the sector tightened noticeably.

The software business is small within the enterprise business intelligence and analytics market and is in the middle of moving to the cloud. It competes with large cloud providers and specialist business intelligence vendors, and its $477.2 million of 2025 revenue[20] carries limited weight in that market. The available material does not include peer revenue, profit or share comparisons, so its strengths and weaknesses against competitors cannot be measured in numbers, and the progress of the transition can only be read from subscription growth and gross margin.

Core Debates

Can STRC return to issuing near par instead of being propped up by buybacks funded with common-stock sales?

Whether STRC can resume issuance decides whether Strategy still has a source of bitcoin funding that does not dilute common stock. In the first half of 2026 STRC was the company's main source of money for adding bitcoin, raising $5.465 billion in the second quarter alone[6] and $7.53 billion year to date through July 26[14], and on the first-quarter call management set an annual STRC issuance goal of about 10% to 20% of its bitcoin reserves[15]. STRC dividends are a fixed annual cash cost, and the liquidation preference of all perpetual preferred stock had reached $15.46 billion by June 30[16]. If STRC cannot be reissued, the company can only raise money by selling common stock, which is exactly the share base used to measure bitcoin per share.

The weekly third-quarter disclosures show STRC turning from a funding tool into a buyback target. Every weekly filing in the third quarter showed zero STRC issuance, and summing the weekly filings from July 20 to September 30, the company repurchased about 14.3 million shares for about $1.379 billion at an average of about $96.4[7]; the repurchase authorization was raised from $1.0 billion to $2.0 billion on September 8[26] and to $3.0 billion on October 19, with $1.16 billion remaining as of October 18[25]. Most buyback money came from common-stock sales and some from bitcoin sales in July and August[11]. The annual STRC dividend rate rose from 11.00% in January to 12.00% from mid-July[6], and management said it will recommend keeping 12.00% until STRC has demonstrated sustained, healthy trading near $100[8].

These figures support two readings with opposite meanings for common stockholders. The company's reading is that repurchasing below par retires future dividends at a discount while letting independent demand rebuild a healthy market[14]; the other reading is that STRC demand never recovered after bitcoin fell and the price is being held up by continuous company buying. The transmission runs as follows: STRC's price relative to its $100 stated amount decides whether the company issues or repurchases, the outstanding stated amount times the 12.00% dividend rate sets preferred dividends, which were $400.7 million in the second quarter[4], and those dividends are deducted from income attributable to common stockholders; buyback money comes from common-stock sales or bitcoin sales, not from the dollar reserve.

The third-quarter report and later weekly filings can gradually separate the two readings, though one quarter may not be enough. The items to watch are the third-quarter 10-Q totals for STRC issuance and repurchases, the October 28 special meeting vote on switching to daily dividends[27], whether fourth-quarter weekly filings show net STRC issuance, and whether the dividend rate moves off 12.00%. If buybacks continue while issuance does not return, STRC demand depends on company support; if quarterly issuance again exceeds repurchases after the third quarter, the support reading is falsified; and another rate increase would push fixed costs directly higher.

Who pays the roughly $1.76 billion a year in preferred dividends and interest: common-stock issuance, the cash reserve, or bitcoin sales?

The funding source for dividends and interest decides which asset ultimately carries this fixed cost. Strategy's software business brings in less than $500 million a year, $477.2 million in 2025[20], far short of the roughly $1.76 billion in annual preferred dividends and interest as of June 30[9]. Each payment route has a cost: issuance dilutes common stock, bitcoin sales shrink holdings, and drawing on the reserve shortens its coverage. After selling bitcoin to pay dividends for the first time in June and July, the company switched to issuance to refill the reserve, and the third-quarter report is the first full-quarter test of that shift.

In the third quarter the company sold bitcoin first and then issued stock, and the reserve balance in the weekly filings rose and then eased. The June 29 framework requires a reserve of at least 12 months of dividends plus interest and authorizes bitcoin sales[17]; on June 29-30 the company sold 1,363 bitcoin for $80.8 million to pay preferred dividends, sold another 2,225 on July 1-5 to fund payments[10], and sold 3,328 more between July 27 and August 9 to fund payments and STRC buybacks[28][11], with no sales in the weekly filings after August 10. The reserve rose from $2.40 billion on June 30 (about 16 months of coverage) to $3.75 billion on July 24 (about 26 months)[9], reached $5.10 billion on August 23[29], stood at $5.02 billion on September 27[30], $4.88 billion on October 4[5] and $4.83 billion on October 18[25].

The reserve grew on common-stock money, so both readings still hold up. Third-quarter net ATM proceeds from common stock were about $5.408 billion, of which only about $512.4 million went directly to bitcoin, $369.7 million on August 24-30[31] and $142.7 million on September 21-27[30], with the rest going to the reserve, USD Cash, STRC buybacks and payments[29]. The company's reading is that the reserve covers more than two years, so bitcoin sales are unnecessary[14]; the other reading is that the reserve simply stores issuance proceeds under another name, and bitcoin sales remain the fallback once common-stock funding gets harder. The transmission runs as follows: roughly $1.76 billion a year of dividends and interest is paid weekly from the reserve, the reserve is refilled by common-stock sales or bitcoin monetization, and the result shows up in cash and short-term investments and bitcoin holdings on the balance sheet, while any drop below the 12-month floor needs board approval[17].

Three numbers in the third-quarter report will show how deep the reserve really is. The first is the gap between September 30 cash and short-term investments on the balance sheet and the weekly reserve figure, because the weekly reserve includes unsettled ATM proceeds[9], and cash and short-term investments were $2.45 billion on June 30[16]; the second is whether fourth-quarter weekly filings show bitcoin sales again; the third is whether coverage stays above 24 months. If bitcoin sales return as a payment source after common-stock funding gets harder, or if the reserve is used for anything other than dividends and interest, the view that the reserve makes bitcoin sales unnecessary weakens; if the reserve stays above the 12-month floor without bitcoin sales, that view strengthens.

Beyond the accounting gain from a higher bitcoin price, is common-stock issuance still adding bitcoin per share?

Bitcoin per share is the reason common stockholders accept continuous issuance, and the third quarter is the first full quarter in which the company used issuance proceeds at scale for purposes other than buying bitcoin. BTC Yield measures the change in bitcoin held divided by assumed diluted shares (BPS, in satoshis); on June 30 BPS was 210,824 sats on 401.3 million assumed diluted shares[12]. On the first-quarter call management set a goal of doubling bitcoin per share in seven years[15], so third-quarter BTC Yield is a direct test of this issuance logic.

Current figures show bitcoin-per-share growth slowing even as reported profit swung to a large gain in the third quarter. BTC Yield was 5.0% in the second quarter and 8.1% for the first half[12], but fell to 4.5% year to date through July 26, a drop of about 3.6 percentage points over July 1-26, because the company sold bitcoin for payments in July while continuing to issue stock[6]. In the third quarter ATM sales added about 50.3 million common shares, about 12.5% of assumed diluted shares on June 30, while holdings rose only from 846,000 to 847,666 bitcoin, about 0.2%[7]. Over the same period the bitcoin price recovered from about $58,714 to about $83,547, and the company pre-announced a third-quarter gain on digital assets of $20.91 billion[5].

The two readings differ on whether the third-quarter cost is a temporary investment or a lasting transfer. The company's reading is that stabilizing STRC and building the reserve come first, so that long-term low-cost preferred funding can resume and ultimately benefit bitcoin per share[14]; the other reading is that common stockholders are paying for weak preferred demand, and that third-quarter accounting profit masks a decline in bitcoin per share. Two transmission chains run independently: share issuance and the use of proceeds set bitcoin held divided by assumed diluted shares, that is BPS and BTC Yield; bitcoin held times the change in quarter-end price sets the unrealized gain or loss on digital assets and therefore operating and net income, which was −$8.32 billion in the second quarter, −$14.46 billion in the first quarter and +$14.05 billion in the second quarter of 2025[4].

The third-quarter 10-Q will report quarterly BTC Yield, BPS and assumed diluted shares as of September 30, the most direct figures for this debate. After that, the split of fourth-quarter ATM proceeds among bitcoin, the reserve and buybacks matters. If quarterly BTC Yield turns negative and stays there, or if the bitcoin price falls back below the average cost of about $75,437[7], the logic that issuance adds bitcoin per share weakens; if third-quarter BTC Yield is not negative, or fourth-quarter issuance proceeds again go mainly to bitcoin, the current concern eases.

Can cloud-subscription growth offset the loss of on-premises support revenue before support ends at the close of 2026?

Software is Strategy's only source of operating revenue and operating cash, and it decides whether the company can cover staff, offices and part of its interest with internally generated cash. Software revenue was $477.2 million in 2025[20], far smaller than the bitcoin holdings, but it is the company's original business and the only internally generated funding for its fixed costs. Full support for on-premises licenses ends on December 31, 2026[18], leaving little more than one quarter for the migration.

Second-quarter figures show the subscription increase still exceeding the decline in licenses and support, but gross margin is falling. Subscription revenue rose $22.0 million year over year[19], license and support revenue together fell about $15.3 million, and total revenue grew 6.9%; gross margin fell from 68.8% to 66.6% because cloud hosting costs rise with subscriptions, lifting subscription cost from $15.91 million to $22.74 million[4]. In the first quarter subscription revenue was about $58.88 million and product support revenue $44.19 million[4], at a 67.1% gross margin[23].

Migration itself depresses revenue growth and gross margin, and the real question is how much of the support decline is migration and how much is churn. The company's reading is that migration swaps upfront revenue for ratably recognized subscription revenue, which holds down revenue growth and gross margin in the short run[19]; the other reading is that some on-premises customers are not renewing before support ends, so not all of the support decline is migration. The company does not disclose customer counts or net retention, so outsiders can only judge indirectly by comparing the subscription increase with the support decline. The transmission runs as follows: on-premises customers migrating lifts ratably recognized subscription revenue while product support and license revenue fall, and because subscription costs include cloud hosting and exceed support costs, gross margin declines and ultimately affects software operating cash.

In the third quarter the items to watch are the year-over-year changes in subscription and support revenue, whether gross margin falls below 65%, and whether deferred revenue recovers. If the subscription increase keeps exceeding the decline in product support revenue before support ends, the migration reading gains support; if the support decline widens while subscription growth slows, or cloud hosting costs push gross margin below 65%, the churn and rising-cost reading carries more weight.

Risks and Falsifiers

Capital market access is the risk shared by every funding source, because every dividend, interest payment and bitcoin purchase depends on the window for issuing common and preferred stock. Outstanding convertible principal was $6.71 billion after the $1.50 billion May repurchase[6], perpetual preferred liquidation preference was $15.46 billion on June 30[16], and the corporate credit rating that S&P assigned on October 27, 2025 is B-, still below investment grade[32]. If the convertible notes convert at par or are repurchased below par and the credit rating is not cut, this risk has not materialized.

STRC trading below par for a long time is the second risk, because buybacks would keep consuming common-stock proceeds instead of bringing in new money for bitcoin. Third-quarter buybacks were about $1.379 billion with zero new issuance[7], and the repurchase authorization has been expanded to $3.0 billion, with $1.16 billion remaining on October 18[25]. If the company resumes net STRC issuance after the third quarter and quarterly issuance exceeds buybacks in the same period, this risk is falsified.

If the window for common-stock issuance closes, dividends and interest can only be paid from the reserve or bitcoin sales. Annual preferred dividends plus interest are about $1.76 billion[9], the USD Reserve was $4.83 billion on October 18[25], and the board has authorized up to $1.25 billion of bitcoin sales to fund the reserve[10]. If the reserve stays above the 12-month floor without bitcoin sales and the company stops selling bitcoin for payments in later quarters, this risk has not come true.

When issuance proceeds no longer go mainly to bitcoin, the common share count grows faster than holdings and bitcoin per share falls. Third-quarter ATM sales added about 50.3 million shares, about 12.5% of the 401.3 million assumed diluted shares on June 30[12][29], while holdings grew only about 0.2% over the same period[7]. If the quarterly BTC Yield in the third-quarter 10-Q is not negative, or fourth-quarter issuance proceeds again go mainly to bitcoin, this concern is falsified.

A drop in the bitcoin price would push down reported profit, stockholders' equity and the asset coverage of the preferred stock at the same time. On September 30 the company held 847,666 bitcoin at an average cost of $75,437[7]; at the $58,714 price at the end of the second quarter, the carrying value of the holdings was $14.27 billion below cost[24], while after the third-quarter price recovery the company pre-announced a $20.91 billion gain[5]. As long as the quarter-end bitcoin price stays above the average cost of holdings, this risk will not show up as an unrealized accounting loss.

Full support for on-premises licenses ends on December 31, 2026, and existing customers may leave rather than migrate[18]. Second-quarter product support revenue was $40.25 million, 32.9% of total revenue[4], and this revenue is directly exposed to the cutoff date. If the subscription increase keeps exceeding the decline in product support revenue around the cutoff, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

• STRC issuance versus buybacks: second-quarter issuance was $5.465 billion, the third quarter had zero issuance and about $1.379 billion of buybacks, and the dividend rate is 12.00%. Watch the third-quarter 10-Q totals, the October 28 daily-dividend vote and fourth-quarter weekly filings; quarterly issuance above buybacks would falsify the support reading, while continued buybacks without new issuance would confirm it.
• Who pays dividends and interest: annual cost is about $1.76 billion, the reserve was $4.83 billion on October 18, and the company sold 5,553 bitcoin in the third quarter. Watch the gap between cash and short-term investments and the reserve figure, and whether bitcoin sales return in the fourth quarter; coverage above 24 months without bitcoin sales strengthens the current view, and renewed sales for payments weaken it.
• Bitcoin per share: second-quarter BTC Yield was 5.0%, assumed diluted shares were 401.3 million on June 30, and third-quarter holdings rose about 0.2%. Watch third-quarter BTC Yield and the September 30 share count; a non-negative yield eases the concern, while a persistently negative one weakens the issuance logic.
• Cloud migration versus support loss: second-quarter subscription revenue was $62.86 million (+54.0%), support $40.25 million (−22.7%) and gross margin 66.6%. Watch third-quarter year-over-year changes, gross margin and deferred revenue; a subscription increase that keeps exceeding the support decline supports migration, while a margin below 65% or a wider support decline favors churn.

Conclusion

Strategy's results are driven by two forces: the quarter-end bitcoin price sets operating profit, securities issuance sets holdings growth and the funding of fixed costs, and the software business is an adjunct with about $120 million of quarterly revenue and a small operating loss. On June 30 the company held 846,000 bitcoin[24], $6.71 billion of convertible notes[6] and preferred stock with a $15.46 billion liquidation preference[16], and the pre-announced $20.91 billion third-quarter gain will pull reported results back to profit[5]. The unresolved relationship is whether, after STRC switched from issuance to buybacks, common-stock issuance can carry dividends, the reserve and buybacks at once without lowering bitcoin per share.

Since the second-quarter results, only one independent assessment could be checked against its original text. Aaron Wise of Protos argued on October 1 that Strategy had spent about $1.28 billion of a $2 billion repurchase authorization over 10 weeks to push the STRC price higher, that almost all of the buyback money came from diluting MSTR common stock, and that because common stock ranks below STRC, junior holders are in effect propping up the preferred[33]. This view maps directly onto the first and second debates and runs directly against the company's reading that discounted buybacks retire future dividends and let independent demand rebuild the market[14]. It is an outside interpretation rather than a fact and represents a single voice; the remaining coverage, mostly restatements of weekly data and broker summaries carrying share-price opinions, was not included.

What would materially strengthen or weaken the current understanding is a combination of observations. If the third-quarter 10-Q shows a non-negative BTC Yield, fourth-quarter weekly filings show net STRC issuance above buybacks, and the dollar reserve stays above the 12-month floor without bitcoin sales, the reading that issuance-funded support is only a transition gains weight; if BTC Yield turns negative, the repurchase authorization keeps rising without new issuance, and the company sells bitcoin for payments again, the Protos account of common stock propping up the preferred moves closer to fact. On the software side, whether the subscription increase keeps exceeding the support decline around the December 31 cutoff and whether gross margin holds at 65% will decide whether this only source of operating revenue stays stable.

Sources

[1] MSTR 10-K filed 2026-02-19 · Item 1 business overview and bitcoin strategy · 2026-02-19 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000020/mstr-20251231.htm

[2] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-20) · MSTR 2026-10-29 Q3 2026 estimates · 2026-10-20 · Drillr earnings calendar · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[3] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-07-30 (Q2 2026 results press release) · Q2 financial and bitcoin summary · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000162828026051027/mstr-20260730x8kxex991.htm

[4] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-07-31 (corrected Q2 2026 results exhibit) · statements of operations · 2026-07-31 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000036/mstr-20260730x8kxex991.htm

[5] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-10-05 · Q3 2026 financial update and Sep 28-Oct 4 activity · 2026-10-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526413164/mstr-20261005.htm

[6] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-07-30 (Q2 2026 results press release) · capital markets and Digital Credit framework summary · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000162828026051027/mstr-20260730x8kxex991.htm

[7] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-10-05 · quarter-end bitcoin holdings and STRC repurchases (Sep 28-30) · 2026-10-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526413164/mstr-20261005.htm

[8] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-09-01 · STRC 12.00% rate maintained and Q3 dividend declarations · 2026-09-01 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526377583/mstr-20260831.htm

[9] MSTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 · USD Reserve coverage of annual dividends and interest · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000044/mstr-20260630.htm

[10] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-07-06 · bitcoin sales and Q2 2026 digital asset loss · 2026-07-06 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526295586/mstr-20260706.htm

[11] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-08-10 · ATM, bitcoin sales and STRC repurchases (Aug 3-9) · 2026-08-10 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526341297/mstr-20260810.htm

[12] MSTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 · BPS and BTC Yield Q2 2026 · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000044/mstr-20260630.htm

[13] MSTR 10-K filed 2026-02-19 · digital credit preferred stock and USD Reserve · 2026-02-19 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000020/mstr-20251231.htm

[14] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-07-30 (Q2 2026 results press release) · highlights and management commentary · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000162828026051027/mstr-20260730x8kxex991.htm

[15] MSTR earnings call 2026-05-05 (Q1 2026) · capital strategy and STRC issuance targets · 2026-05-05 · earnings-call · https://www.strategy.com/investor-relations

[16] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-07-31 (corrected Q2 2026 results exhibit) · balance sheet and digital asset roll-forward · 2026-07-31 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000036/mstr-20260730x8kxex991.htm

[17] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-06-29 · Digital Credit Capital Framework · 2026-06-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526286871/mstr-20260629.htm

[18] MSTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 · on-premises end-of-support risk · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000044/mstr-20260630.htm

[19] MSTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 · software revenue drivers and cloud migration · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000044/mstr-20260630.htm

[20] MSTR 10-K filed 2026-02-19 · FY2025 consolidated statement of operations · 2026-02-19 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000020/mstr-20251231.htm

[21] MSTR 10-K filed 2026-02-19 · FY2025 unrealized loss and software revenue drivers · 2026-02-19 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000020/mstr-20251231.htm

[22] MSTR 10-K filed 2026-02-19 · year-end bitcoin holdings and BTC Yield · 2026-02-19 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000020/mstr-20251231.htm

[23] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-05-05 (Q1 2026 results press release) · Q1 financial summary · 2026-05-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000024/mstr-20260505x8kxex991.htm

[24] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-07-31 (corrected Q2 2026 results exhibit) · digital asset roll-forward · 2026-07-31 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000036/mstr-20260730x8kxex991.htm

[25] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-10-19 · repurchase authorization raised to $3.0 billion; USD Reserve and holdings (Oct 12-18) · 2026-10-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526424688/mstr-20261019.htm

[26] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-09-08 · repurchase authorization raised to $2.0 billion (Aug 31-Sep 7) · 2026-09-08 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526384402/mstr-20260908.htm

[27] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-09-25 · special meeting for daily dividend amendments · 2026-09-25 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526401636/mstr-20260924.htm

[28] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-08-03 · ATM, bitcoin sales and STRC repurchases (Jul 27-Aug 2) · 2026-08-03 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526329565/mstr-20260803.htm

[29] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-08-24 · USD Cash established; ATM and STRC repurchases (Aug 17-23) · 2026-08-24 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526361845/mstr-20260824.htm

[30] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-09-28 · ATM, bitcoin purchases, STRC repurchases and USD Reserve (Sep 21-27) · 2026-09-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526403417/mstr-20260914.htm

[31] MSTR 8-K filed 2026-08-31 · ATM, bitcoin purchases and STRC repurchases (Aug 24-30) · 2026-08-31 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526375463/mstr-20260831.htm

[32] MSTR 10-K filed 2026-02-19 · S&P corporate credit rating · 2026-02-19 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000020/mstr-20251231.htm

[33] Protos 2026-10-01 · Strategy has burned through 64% of its STRC rescue fund · 2026-10-01 · Protos · https://protos.com/strategy-has-burned-through-64-of-its-strc-rescue-fund/