Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MRNA] Moderna Thesis 2026: mResvia Launch Broadens Portfolio Beyond COVID Revenue Dependency
Moderna Inc. FY25 revenue $1.94B (down 90% from $18.88B FY22 peak); op income -$3.07B (improving from -$3.95B FY24); NI -$2.82B; EPS -$7.26. Q4 revenue $700M (US $300M / Int'l $400M). mNexspike (mRNA-1283) approved + launched in US, quickly became leading product. Spikevax COVID continues. Operating expenses cut 30% FY: cost of sales -41%, R&D -31%, SG&A -13%. Pipeline progress: INT (mRNA-4157) cancer therapy 5-year positive Phase 2 data adjuvant melanoma; mRNA-4259 (CMV) Phase 1b → Phase 2; norovirus + PA programs fully enrolled. 2 products under regulatory review (seasonal flu Europe/Canada/Australia + flu-COVID combo Europe/Canada). Recordati rare disease agreement + Mexico respiratory vaccine supply. FDA refusal-to-file letter on mRNA-1010 flu — material regulatory uncertainty. Dr. David Berman new Chief Development Officer March 2. FY26 guide: total revenue growth up to 10% primarily international; local manufacturing UK + Australia 2026; cost of sales $900M; R&D ~$3B; SG&A ~$1B flat; revenue weighted H2.