Research · Sep 3, 2026
[MLCO] Melco Resorts Thesis 2026: Macau Gaming Recovery and Cyprus Expansion Compounder
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ: MLCO), headquartered in Macau, is a Macau-City-of-Dreams-and-Studio-City-and-Manila-City-of-Dreams-Casino + emerging-multi-cycle-Macau-Gaming-Recovery-and-Cyprus-City-of-Dreams leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Macau-Cotai-City-of-Dreams-and-Studio-City-Casino-Resort + emerging-Manila-City-of-Dreams-Casino-Resort + emerging-Cyprus-City-of-Dreams-Mediterranean-Mega-Casino-Resort services to substantial multi-cycle Macau-VIP-Gaming-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-Macau-Mass-Market-Gaming-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-Greater-China-and-Asia-Pacific-Mass-Market-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-Manila-Philippines-Mass-Market-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-Cyprus-Mediterranean-and-Europe-Mass-Market-Customer customer base. The company has distinctive multi-cycle Melco-Resorts-and-Macau-and-Macau-Gaming-Concessionaire heritage: founded 2004 as Melco-International-Development-and-PBL-Crown-Resorts-Australian-Joint-Venture-Founder-Lawrence-Ho + 2006-NASDAQ-Melco-Crown-Entertainment-IPO; 2017-Melco-Crown-Resorts-Crown-Resorts-Australian-Stake-Exit-and-Rename-Melco-Resorts; 2018-2019-Manila-City-of-Dreams-Acquired; 2022-Macau-Gaming-Concession-Renewal-2022-2032 (10-year-concession-renewal); 2023-Cyprus-City-of-Dreams-Mediterranean-Mega-Casino-Resort-Open ($600M+); 2022-2024-Macau-Gaming-Recovery-Post-COVID-and-VIP-Junket-Reform; multi-cycle-disciplined-Macau-Gaming-Concessionaire-Capital-Management; Lawrence-Ho-Founder-CEO-since-2004 + Founder-Family-Ho-Family-Founder-Stanley-Ho-historical-2020-deceased + Founder-Family-Ho-Family-leadership-continuity. FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$4.40-5.00B (~5-12% YoY-reflecting Macau-Gaming-Recovery-and-VIP-and-Mass-Market-Cycle + emerging-Cyprus-City-of-Dreams-Mediterranean-Ramp + emerging-Manila-City-of-Dreams-Recovery + emerging-Studio-City-Phase-2-Maturation), adjusted EBITDA ~$1,150-1,375M (~25-29% margins), adjusted EPS ~$0.55-0.85, net debt ~$6.80-7.65B (~5.5-6.5x leverage), and ~441-450M shares outstanding under Chairman & CEO Lawrence Ho (since-Founder-2004). The Macau-City-of-Dreams-and-Studio-City-and-Cyprus-City-of-Dreams-Mediterranean franchise deep-dive covers distinctive multi-cycle ~22,000-23,500 employees + ~Macau-Cotai-HQ + ~Macau-Cotai-and-Manila-and-Cyprus-Mediterranean-Casino-Resort, Macau-Cotai-City-of-Dreams ~52-58% revenue + Macau-Cotai-Studio-City ~22-28% revenue + Manila-City-of-Dreams ~10-15% revenue + Cyprus-City-of-Dreams-Mediterranean ~5-12% revenue, substantial multi-cycle Macau-VIP-Gaming-Customer + Macau-Mass-Market-Gaming-Customer + Greater-China-and-Asia-Pacific-Mass-Market-Customer + Manila-Philippines-Mass-Market-Customer + Cyprus-Mediterranean-and-Europe-Mass-Market-Customer customer base, 2006-NASDAQ-Melco-Crown-Entertainment-IPO + 2017-Melco-Crown-Resorts-Australian-Stake-Exit-Rename + 2018-2019-Manila-City-of-Dreams-Acquired + 2022-Macau-Gaming-Concession-Renewal + 2023-Cyprus-City-of-Dreams-Mediterranean-Open transformational-platform, emerging-multi-cycle Macau-Gaming-Recovery-and-VIP-Junket-Reform-and-Premium-Mass-Market-Mix-Shift + emerging-Macau-Gaming-Concession-Renewal-2022-2032-Visibility + emerging-Cyprus-City-of-Dreams-Mediterranean-Ramp + emerging-Manila-City-of-Dreams-Recovery + emerging-Studio-City-Phase-2-Maturation structural-tailwinds, competing in Macau-Gaming-Concessionaire space with Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, MGM Resorts, Galaxy Entertainment Group, SJM Holdings, Sands China, Wynn Macau, MGM China; Manila-Philippines with Bloomberry Resorts, PAGCOR, Resorts World Manila (Genting); Cyprus-and-Europe with Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts International, Las Vegas Sands International; and private-equity-Apollo-KKR-Blackstone-Carlyle-Bain-CD&R-EQT-Permira-CVC-Bridgepoint-Cinven-Ardian-TPG. The Lawrence-Ho + Founder-CEO + 2022-Macau-Gaming-Concession-Renewal-and-2023-Cyprus-City-of-Dreams-Mediterranean-Open deep-dive covers Lawrence-Ho-Founder-CEO (since-Founder-2004 + Founder-Family-Ho-Family-Founder-Stanley-Ho-historical-2020-deceased) + Founder-Family-Ho-Family-leadership-continuity expertise, multi-cycle-disciplined-Macau-Gaming-Concessionaire-Capital-Management discipline, no-dividend-suspended-during-COVID-and-Recovery + multi-cycle-emerging-share-buyback-only (~$25-100M/yr discretionary). Capital position is Sub-IG (Ba2/BB to Ba1/BB+ ~5.5-6.5x leverage). At ~$5-9 per share, equity value ~$2.25-4.00B, EV ~$9.10-11.65B, providing ~7-12x EV/EBITDA.