Research · Sep 3, 2026
Lam Research FY2025 (Jun 2025) revenue ~$15.7B (+10-12% YoY) recovering from FY2024 memory capex trough ($14.9B). Adj. EPS ~$3.55 post 10-for-1 stock split (Oct 2024). HBM-related equipment revenue grew ~6-7x from $0.5B FY2022 to $3.0-3.5B FY2025 as HBM bit production share expanded 5-8% → 30-35% of total DRAM bits. Lam Research positioned as key supplier to SK Hynix + Samsung + Micron HBM production with HBM-specific TSV etch (~60-70% market share). 3D NAND vertical channel etch ~70%+ market share — strategically protected by multi-decade R&D investment competitors haven't replicated. Advanced logic 32% of mix (up from 22% FY2022) on AI cycle. FY2026 thesis: HBM4 ramp + HBM3E sustained drives continued DRAM equipment growth; 3D NAND industry recovery from FY2024 trough; advanced logic GAA equipment demand; key risks: China export controls (30-35% revenue), AI cycle reset, memory overcapacity reversal.
Research · Aug 25, 2026
Applied Materials hands suppliers an eight-quarter build schedule and KLA is signing 2029 component capacity deals; Camtek's orders now ship in 2027.
Research · Apr 27, 2026
Intel's recent rating downgrade after a 74% YTD surge highlights growing concerns about semiconductor companies overspending on fab construction. This analysis examines which chip companies face the greatest margin pressure from capital expenditures, ranking them from integrated manufacturers like Intel to fabless designers like NVIDIA and AMD.
Research · Apr 27, 2026
ASM International's Q3 beat and raised FY24 guidance spotlight the AI chip production surge, boosting demand for advanced tools from US-listed leaders like AMAT, LRCX, and ASML. These six equipment firms show strong positioning via record backlogs and AI-tied growth, with ASML and AMAT topping conviction rankings. Investors should track foundry capex updates amid potential geopolitical risks.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
South Korea's Q1 GDP data, driven by a 12% jump in semiconductor exports, confirms the memory chip upcycle is accelerating two quarters ahead of consensus. This creates a differential trade: memory producers (SSNGY, HXSCL, MU, WDC) benefit from price increases, while consumer electronics assemblers (DELL, HPQ, LNVGY) face unmodeled margin compression. A long memory/short assembler pair targets 7-10% outperformance over six months, falsified if Q2 export growth falls below 8% YoY by July 31.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Motley Fool's April 11 warning on NVIDIA's mispriced $1T AI growth sparks valuation review of semis. AMD emerges cheapest on growth, NVDA justified premium, equipment plays solid indirect bets amid robust demand signals.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Japan's $16B Rapidus funding ignites a fab boom, favoring US equipment leaders AMAT, LRCX, and KLAC while challenging TSM. NVIDIA and QCOM gain indirectly from capacity growth. Ranked picks highlight equipment purity over foundry risks.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Amid robust AI chip demand and supply constraints per Investopedia, infrastructure firms like SMCI, DELL, and AVGO lead with massive backlogs and growth. Ranked conviction favors direct AI server exposure at attractive valuations.
