Research · Sep 3, 2026
[ITUB] Itau Unibanco Thesis 2026: Brazil Retail Banking Drives Post-Selic Margin Expansion
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (NYSE: ITUB) FY2025 revenue ~R$155-165B (~$28-30B; +5-9%) with diluted EPS ~R$4.30-4.85 reflecting continued ~37% Brazil banking market share leadership (~70M+ active customer relationships across retail + wholesale + investment banking + insurance) plus selected post-2024 ~10.75-11.25% Selic policy rate cycle support for Brazil retail banking NIM expansion plus selected Itaú BBA wholesale banking franchise leadership under continued CEO Milton Maluhy Filho (~5-year tenure since February 2021). Brazil's largest private sector bank serving selected ~70M+ active customer relationships across Brazil + selected various Latin American countries (Chile + Colombia + Argentina + Paraguay + Uruguay). Founded 2008 via merger of Banco Itaú (founded 1945 São Paulo) + Unibanco (founded 1924 Rio de Janeiro) creating selected combined R$575B+ aggregate balance sheet entity at merger announcement; selected post-November 2008 announcement formed Itaú Unibanco Holding São Paulo headquartered; selected pre-merger Banco Itaú expanded through ~$10B+ aggregate FY1990s-2000s acquisitions including Banco do Estado de Minas Gerais (Bemge) + Banco do Estado de São Paulo (Banespa) + Banco do Estado do Paraná (Banestado) + various other state banks; selected post-2017 Candido Bracher leadership transition + post-2017 strategic refocus on retail + digital + selected various non-core divestitures. Headquartered in São Paulo Brazil; ~95,000+ employees globally with ~R$155-165B revenue. Five primary reporting segments: Retail Banking ~50%+ (~R$80B — Brazil retail banking including individuals + selected high-income + Iti digital banking platform; ~70M+ active customer relationships + ~14M+ Iti customers FY2025), Wholesale Banking + Itaú BBA ~25% (~R$40B — corporate + middle market + selected investment banking via Itaú BBA franchise; selected leading market share Latin American investment banking), Treasury + Trading ~10% (~R$15-17B — investment + trading + selected liquidity management), Insurance + Pension ~10% (~R$15-17B — Itaú Seguros + Itaú Vida e Previdência subsidiary contributions), International + Other ~5% (~R$8B — Chile + Colombia + Argentina + Paraguay + Uruguay + selected various non-core). Brazil retail banking leadership: ~37% Brazil banking market share; ~70M+ active customers FY2025 (vs ~65M FY2024); ~17,000+ branches + ~30,000+ ATMs; Iti digital banking platform ~14M+ Iti customers FY2025 (vs ~10M FY2024 + ~5M FY2023); Itaú Personnalité high-income + private banking; ~30%+ Brazil credit card market share. Selic policy rate cycle: post-Q1 2024 BCB rate cut cycle (Selic from 13.75% peak August 2023 → 10.50% September 2024 → ~10.75-11.25% holding pattern FY2025); selected continued lower-Selic environment supports Brazil retail banking NIM expansion ~7.5-8.0% (vs ~7.0-7.5% pre-cycle); FY2026 catalyst: BCB rate cut continuation. Itaú BBA wholesale + investment banking franchise: leading LATAM investment banking market share covering M&A advisory + ECM + DCM + structured finance + ~5,000+ Brazilian + LATAM corporate clients + ~50,000+ middle market client coverage. CEO Milton Maluhy Filho since February 2021 (succeeded Candido Bracher CEO 2017-February 2021 retired; Maluhy ex-Itaú Unibanco CFO 2017-February 2021 + ~22-year company career). Capital return: ~R$1.50-1.65 annual dividend + JCP FY2025 (~+10-15% growth); modest buybacks; BIS ratio ~16-17%; CET1 ~13-14%; investment-grade Ba1/BB+ credit rating (Brazil sovereign-constrained). FY2026 thesis: Brazil retail banking leadership + Selic rate cycle support + Iti digital banking expansion + Itaú BBA franchise + ROE sustainability + ~+10-15% dividend + JCP growth. Risks: Brazil macro deceleration, Brazilian fiscal deficit + sovereign credit rating, asset quality (retail unsecured), Selic rate cycle compression, Brazilian real currency volatility.