Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (NYSE: ITUB) FY2025 revenue ~R$155-165B (~$28-30B; +5-9%) with diluted EPS ~R$4.30-4.85 reflecting continued ~37% Brazil banking market share leadership (~70M+ active customer relationships across retail + wholesale + investment banking + insurance) plus selected post-2024 ~10.75-11.25% Selic policy rate cycle support for Brazil retail banking NIM expansion plus selected Itaú BBA wholesale banking franchise leadership under continued CEO Milton Maluhy Filho (~5-year tenure since February 2021). Brazil's largest private sector bank serving selected ~70M+ active customer relationships across Brazil + selected various Latin American countries (Chile + Colombia + Argentina + Paraguay + Uruguay). Founded 2008 via merger of Banco Itaú (founded 1945 São Paulo) + Unibanco (founded 1924 Rio de Janeiro) creating selected combined R$575B+ aggregate balance sheet entity at merger announcement; selected post-November 2008 announcement formed Itaú Unibanco Holding São Paulo headquartered; selected pre-merger Banco Itaú expanded through ~$10B+ aggregate FY1990s-2000s acquisitions including Banco do Estado de Minas Gerais (Bemge) + Banco do Estado de São Paulo (Banespa) + Banco do Estado do Paraná (Banestado) + various other state banks; selected post-2017 Candido Bracher leadership transition + post-2017 strategic refocus on retail + digital + selected various non-core divestitures. Headquartered in São Paulo Brazil; ~95,000+ employees globally with ~R$155-165B revenue. Five primary reporting segments: Retail Banking ~50%+ (~R$80B — Brazil retail banking including individuals + selected high-income + Iti digital banking platform; ~70M+ active customer relationships + ~14M+ Iti customers FY2025), Wholesale Banking + Itaú BBA ~25% (~R$40B — corporate + middle market + selected investment banking via Itaú BBA franchise; selected leading market share Latin American investment banking), Treasury + Trading ~10% (~R$15-17B — investment + trading + selected liquidity management), Insurance + Pension ~10% (~R$15-17B — Itaú Seguros + Itaú Vida e Previdência subsidiary contributions), International + Other ~5% (~R$8B — Chile + Colombia + Argentina + Paraguay + Uruguay + selected various non-core). Brazil retail banking leadership: ~37% Brazil banking market share; ~70M+ active customers FY2025 (vs ~65M FY2024); ~17,000+ branches + ~30,000+ ATMs; Iti digital banking platform ~14M+ Iti customers FY2025 (vs ~10M FY2024 + ~5M FY2023); Itaú Personnalité high-income + private banking; ~30%+ Brazil credit card market share. Selic policy rate cycle: post-Q1 2024 BCB rate cut cycle (Selic from 13.75% peak August 2023 → 10.50% September 2024 → ~10.75-11.25% holding pattern FY2025); selected continued lower-Selic environment supports Brazil retail banking NIM expansion ~7.5-8.0% (vs ~7.0-7.5% pre-cycle); FY2026 catalyst: BCB rate cut continuation. Itaú BBA wholesale + investment banking franchise: leading LATAM investment banking market share covering M&A advisory + ECM + DCM + structured finance + ~5,000+ Brazilian + LATAM corporate clients + ~50,000+ middle market client coverage. CEO Milton Maluhy Filho since February 2021 (succeeded Candido Bracher CEO 2017-February 2021 retired; Maluhy ex-Itaú Unibanco CFO 2017-February 2021 + ~22-year company career). Capital return: ~R$1.50-1.65 annual dividend + JCP FY2025 (~+10-15% growth); modest buybacks; BIS ratio ~16-17%; CET1 ~13-14%; investment-grade Ba1/BB+ credit rating (Brazil sovereign-constrained). FY2026 thesis: Brazil retail banking leadership + Selic rate cycle support + Iti digital banking expansion + Itaú BBA franchise + ROE sustainability + ~+10-15% dividend + JCP growth. Risks: Brazil macro deceleration, Brazilian fiscal deficit + sovereign credit rating, asset quality (retail unsecured), Selic rate cycle compression, Brazilian real currency volatility.

[ITUB] Itau Unibanco Thesis 2026: Brazil Retail Banking Drives Post-Selic Margin Expansion

Key Takeaways

Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (NYSE: ITUB) FY2025 revenue ~~R$155-165B (~~$28-30B; +5-9% YoY) with diluted EPS ~R$4.30-4.85 reflecting continued ~37% Brazil banking market share leadership (~70M+ active customer relationships across retail + wholesale + investment banking + insurance) plus selected post-2024 ~10.75-11.25% Selic policy rate cycle support for Brazil retail banking NIM expansion plus selected Itaú BBA wholesale banking franchise leadership under continued CEO Milton Maluhy Filho (~5-year tenure since February 2021; ex-Itaú Unibanco CFO 2017-February 2021 + ~22-year company career; succeeded Candido Bracher 2017-February 2021 retired who led Itaú Unibanco through post-2017 strategic refocus on retail + digital).
Brazil retail banking leadership: ~37% Brazil banking market share (~70M+ active customers); ~17,000+ branches + selected ~30,000+ ATMs + Iti digital banking platform (~14M+ Iti customers FY2025); selected post-2018 Itaú Asset Management R$1.4 trillion AUM + Itaú Personnalité private banking + Itaú BBA wholesale banking franchise leadership.
Selic policy rate cycle: post-Q1 2024 Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) rate cut cycle (Selic from 13.75% peak August 2023 → 10.50% September 2024 → ~10.75-11.25% holding pattern FY2025); selected continued lower-Selic environment supports Brazil retail banking NIM expansion via spread compression on cheap funding cost vs continued retail loan pricing power; FY2026 catalyst: BCB rate cut continuation + selected Brazil retail banking NIM ~7.5-8.0% (vs ~7.0-7.5% pre-cycle).
Capital return: ~~R$1.50-1.65 annual dividend + JCP (Juros sobre Capital Próprio interest on equity) FY2025 (~~+10-15% growth post-2024 ~R$1.45 aggregate); selected modest buybacks; selected post-2024 capital adequacy ratio (BIS) ~16-17% (Common Equity Tier 1 ~13-14%); investment-grade Ba1/BB+ credit rating (Brazil sovereign-constrained); FY2026 catalyst: continued capital deployment for retail loan growth + ~50% net income retention.

Company Background

Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (NYSE: ITUB) is Brazil's largest private sector bank with FY2025 revenue ~~R$155-165B (~~$28-30B; +5-9% YoY) and diluted EPS ~R$4.30-4.85 reflecting continued ~37% Brazil banking market share leadership and selected post-2024 ~10.75-11.25% Selic policy rate cycle support for retail banking NIM expansion. Itaú serves selected ~70M+ active customer relationships across Brazil + selected various Latin American countries (Chile + Colombia + Argentina + Paraguay + Uruguay) through ~17,000+ branches + selected ~30,000+ ATMs + selected continued digital banking platforms. The bank employs ~95,000+ globally with operations across Brazil + LATAM + selected international.

Founded 2008 via merger of Banco Itaú (founded 1945 São Paulo) + Unibanco (founded 1924 Rio de Janeiro) creating selected combined R$575B+ aggregate balance sheet entity at merger announcement; selected post-November 2008 announcement formed Itaú Unibanco Holding São Paulo headquartered; selected pre-merger Banco Itaú expanded through ~$10B+ aggregate FY1990s-2000s acquisitions including Banco do Estado de Minas Gerais (Bemge) + Banco do Estado de São Paulo (Banespa) + Banco do Estado do Paraná (Banestado) + various other state banks; selected post-2017 Candido Bracher leadership transition + post-2017 strategic refocus on retail + digital + selected various non-core divestitures.

Headquartered in São Paulo Brazil; ~95,000+ employees globally with ~R$155-165B revenue. Five primary reporting segments: Retail Banking ~50%+ (~R$80B — Brazil retail banking including individuals + selected high-income + Iti digital banking platform; ~70M+ active customer relationships + ~14M+ Iti customers FY2025), Wholesale Banking + Itaú BBA ~25% (~R$40B — corporate + middle market + selected investment banking via Itaú BBA franchise; selected leading market share Latin American investment banking), Treasury + Trading ~10% (~R$15-17B — investment + trading + selected liquidity management), Insurance + Pension ~10% (~R$15-17B — Itaú Seguros + Itaú Vida e Previdência subsidiary contributions), International + Other ~5% (~R$8B — Chile + Colombia + Argentina + Paraguay + Uruguay + selected various non-core).

CEO Milton Maluhy Filho since February 2021 (~5-year tenure); succeeded Candido Bracher (CEO 2017-February 2021 retired who led Itaú Unibanco through post-2017 strategic refocus on retail + digital); Maluhy ex-Itaú Unibanco CFO 2017-February 2021 + ex-Itaú BBA Treasury Head + ex-various Itaú roles + ~22-year company career joining 2002. Maluhy's tenure marked by selected continued retail banking focus + Iti digital banking platform expansion + selected post-2024 Selic rate cycle navigation + ~17-19% ROE sustained.

Brazil Retail Banking Leadership

Itaú Unibanco Brazil retail banking ~37% market share leadership:

Active customers: ~70M+ FY2025 (vs ~65M FY2024 + ~60M FY2023)
Branches: ~17,000+ branches FY2025 (selected continued branch network optimization)
ATMs: ~30,000+ ATMs FY2025
Iti digital banking platform: ~14M+ Iti customers FY2025 (vs ~10M FY2024 + ~5M FY2023); selected millennial + Gen Z digital-first proposition
Itaú Personnalité: selected high-income + private banking franchise serving ~$0.5M+ relationships
Brazilian credit cards: ~30%+ Brazil credit card market share

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~70-75M+ active customers + Iti digital banking ~16-18M+ customers + ~+10-15% retail revenue growth + ~R$0.30-0.50 incremental annual EPS contribution.

Selic Policy Rate Cycle Support

Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) rate cycle drives Itaú Brazil retail banking NIM dynamics:

Selic peak: 13.75% August 2023 (post-2022 inflation cycle response)
Cut cycle: BCB cut Selic from 13.75% August 2023 → 10.50% September 2024 (selected -325bps cumulative)
Holding pattern: ~10.75-11.25% FY2025 (BCB pause cycle)
NIM dynamics: lower Selic supports Brazil retail banking NIM expansion via cheap funding cost (savings + checking) vs continued retail loan pricing power; selected Brazil retail banking NIM ~7.5-8.0% FY2025 (vs ~7.0-7.5% pre-cycle)
FY2026 catalyst: continued BCB rate cut continuation + selected Brazil retail banking NIM ~7.5-8.0%

Itaú BBA Wholesale + Investment Banking Franchise

Itaú BBA wholesale + investment banking franchise represents selected ~25% revenue contribution:

Latin American investment banking: selected leading market share covering M&A advisory + ECM + DCM + structured finance
Corporate banking: ~5,000+ Brazilian + LATAM corporate clients
Middle market: ~50,000+ middle market client coverage
Selected various wholesale: selected commercial banking + treasury + capital markets

FY2026 catalyst: continued Itaú BBA franchise leadership + selected Brazil + LATAM economic recovery investment banking activity + ~R$0.20-0.40 incremental annual EPS contribution.

Risks

Brazil macro: Brazil GDP growth deceleration could compress retail loan + deposit growth
Brazilian fiscal: continued Brazilian fiscal deficit + sovereign credit rating risk could compress sovereign + financial sector spreads
Asset quality: ~2.5-2.8% gross NPL FY2025 (vs ~2.7% FY2024); selected continued retail unsecured asset quality watch
Selic rate cycle: continued BCB rate cuts could compress NIM if accelerated faster than retail loan pricing adjustments
Brazilian real currency: BRL/USD volatility could compress USD-reported earnings

Key Core Metrics

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2026 outlook
Revenue	R$155-165B	R$148B	R$131B	R$112B	R$165-175B
Recurring net income	R$40-44B	R$39.4B	R$33.9B	R$30.8B	R$44-48B
Diluted EPS	R$4.30-4.85	R$3.95	R$3.40	R$3.10	R$4.85-5.40
ROE	17-19%	17.7%	17.3%	17.7%	17-19%
Gross NPL	2.5-2.8%	2.7%	3.0%	2.9%	2.4-2.7%

Capital return	FY2025	FY2024	FY2026 outlook
Dividend + JCP	R$1.50-1.65	R$1.45	R$1.65-1.85
Buybacks	modest	modest	modest
BIS ratio	16-17%	16-17%	16-17%
CET1	13-14%	13-14%	13-14%

Market Evaluation

Itaú Unibanco trades at selected ~9-11x FY2026 P/E discount vs HDFC Bank (~17-20x) + ICICI Bank (~17-21x) + JP Morgan (~13-15x) reflecting selected Brazil sovereign-constrained Ba1/BB+ rating + selected Brazilian fiscal deficit + sovereign credit risk overhang + selected Brazilian real currency volatility. Selected re-rating catalysts include: (1) continued ~37% Brazil banking market share leadership; (2) Selic rate cycle support for Brazil retail banking NIM expansion; (3) Iti digital banking platform expansion toward ~16-18M customers; (4) Itaú BBA wholesale + investment banking franchise leadership; (5) ROE sustained ~17-19% + dividend + JCP ~+10-15% growth.

Selic Rate Cycle + Retail Banking NIM Deep Dive

Brazilian Central Bank Selic policy rate cycle represents selected primary macro driver of Itaú Brazil retail banking NIM dynamics. Post-2022 BCB rate hike cycle drove Selic from 2.00% August 2020 → 13.75% August 2023 (selected +1,175bps cumulative response to post-COVID inflation surge). Post-2023 BCB rate cut cycle started August 2023 with Selic from 13.75% peak → 10.50% September 2024 → ~10.75-11.25% holding pattern FY2025 (selected -325bps cumulative cut + selected pause cycle). Lower Selic supports Brazil retail banking NIM expansion through (a) cheap funding cost — Brazilian savings deposits earning ~70-80% Selic + checking deposits earning 0%; (b) continued retail loan pricing power — credit card APR ~300-400% + personal loan ~80-150% + auto loan ~25-40% + home loan ~9-12%; (c) selected lag effect between funding cost reduction (immediate) and loan repricing (~3-12 month lag). Selected Brazil retail banking NIM ~7.5-8.0% FY2025 (vs ~7.0-7.5% pre-cycle) supports ~+10-15% Brazil retail banking revenue growth + ~+8-12% net interest income growth. FY2026 catalyst: continued BCB rate cut path + Brazil retail banking NIM ~7.5-8.0% sustained + ~R$0.20-0.40 incremental annual EPS contribution.

FY2026 thesis: Brazil retail banking leadership + Selic rate cycle support + Iti digital banking expansion + Itaú BBA franchise + ROE sustainability + ~+10-15% dividend + JCP growth.