Research · Sep 3, 2026
Home Depot FY2025 (Feb 2026) revenue ~$162B with operating margin ~13.7% as SRS Distribution full-year contribution (~$10.5B) offset modestly negative legacy comp sales (housing turnover at multi-decade lows). SRS acquisition (June 2024 for $18.25B) doubled pro distribution capability addressing $1T total US contractor market — added specialty trade contractors (roofing $30B / landscaping $15-20B / pool $8-12B markets) that retail-store model historically captured single-digit percentage. FY2026 thesis: SRS synergies materializing (cross-sell HD pro categories to SRS specialty contractors + cross-sell SRS specialty products to HD pro customers); housing turnover gradual recovery (4.0M → 4.3-4.6M annually if mortgage rates moderate); core operating margin discipline durable; key risk: housing weakness extends, DIY consumer trading-down, pro market competition (SiteOne for landscaping, Beacon for roofing).
Research · Aug 25, 2026
US importers collected IEEPA tariff refunds in June 2026, but Home Depot, Lowe's and Reliance Worldwide say fuel, freight and copper costs consumed the cash.
Research · Jun 3, 2026
USTR's 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 countries use Section 307 forced-labor language — a deliberate workaround for the SCOTUS reversal.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
24 states' tariff challenge could refund duties and cut costs for import-reliant retailers. Target and Nike top the list for exposure and valuation, with Walmart and Costco as resilient plays amid steady growth.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
The Iran war's logistics disruptions as of April 11, 2026, are straining China's supply chains, exposing US giants like Apple and Nike to delays and cost hikes. We rank six tickers by vulnerability, with AAPL most at risk due to manufacturing reliance. Financials show resilient growth but thinning margins amid tariffs.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Bond traders' inflation hedges spotlight hawkish Fed risks, positioning banks like JPM and BAC for NIM gains while utilities (NEE, DUK), REITs (PLD), and HD face debt and demand headwinds. JPM tops conviction rankings with superior scale; DUK ranks most vulnerable. Elevated rates reshape sector winners and losers.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Supreme Court oral arguments cast doubt on Trump's birthright citizenship EO, a potential win for labor-reliant firms like MAR, HLT, HD, and MCD amid staffing woes. Financials show margin pressure but resilient FCF; stable immigration supports growth. Bullish stance with eyes on ruling.
