Research · Sep 3, 2026
[FORM] FormFactor Thesis 2026: HBM Probe Card Demand Sets All-Time Record in First Quarter
FormFactor, Inc. FY25 revenue $785M (+3%, record); op income $67M (+4%); NI $54M (-22%); EPS $0.69 (-22%). FCF $12M (capex-heavy investment year). Q4 revenue + gross margin + EPS exceeded expectations; record quarterly + annual revenue. Gross margin actions: +290bp sequential in Q4; forecasted +100+ basis points in Q1. Q4 segment performance — DRAM Probe Cards: sequential growth to new record driven by non-HBM DRAM (DDR4 + DDR5); Q1 expected all-time record on HBM strength (HBM3E + early HBM4 ramp). Foundry and Logic Probe Cards: Q4 demand comparable to Q3; Q1 expected increased demand from data center applications (network switches). System Segment: Q4 sequential revenue increase (co-package optics + quantum computing); Q1 seasonal reduction in co-package optics. Acquired Keystone Photonics — strengthened optical test capabilities. Operational: workforce reductions, manufacturing yield improvements, cycle time reductions. Farmers Branch site online later this year (capacity + lower cost). Analyst Day May 11 to share next target financial model. Capex $104M FY25 (+170% YoY); buyback $26M (-51%); total debt $45M (+14%). Q1 FY26 guide: revenue $225M ± $5M; non-GAAP gross margin 45% ± 150bp; non-GAAP operating expenses $62M ± $2M; non-GAAP EPS $0.45 ± $0.04. Risks: HBM cycle, memory cycle volatility, foundry / logic capex cycle, competition (Onto Innovation, MPI, Micronics, Technoprobe, IPM), customer concentration (TSMC, Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix), trade policy / China.