Research · Sep 3, 2026
[EXPE] Expedia Thesis 2026: B2B Platform and Vrbo Revival Define Dual-Engine Recovery
Expedia Group, Inc. FY25 revenue $14.73B (+8%); op income $1.98B (+50%); NI $1.29B (+5%); EPS $9.81 (+10%). FCF $3.11B (+34%). Q4 B2C gross bookings $18.3B (+5%); B2C revenue $2.2B (+4%). Q4 B2B gross bookings $8.7B (+24%); B2B revenue $1.3B (+24%); B2B EBITDA margin 24% (-1pp); double-digit growth across all regions. Vrbo + Hotels.com returned to growth. AI personalization + faster sites + broadened inventory + enhanced help center / servicing. Advertising reaccelerated. Operating margins expanded over 2 points. Newly initiated dividend ($200M FY25). Buyback $1.93B (+5%). Total capital return $2.13B. FY26 guide: Q1 gross bookings +10-12%; Q1 revenue +11-13%; Q1 EBITDA margins +3-4 points; full year gross bookings +6-8%; full year revenue +6-9% (including FX tailwind); full-year margins to expand 100-125 bp. Risks: OTA competitive landscape (Booking, Airbnb, Google, Trip.com), macro travel cycle, B2B customer concentration, FX, AI search disruption, EU regulation.