Research · Sep 3, 2026
[DECK] Deckers Brands Thesis 2026: HOKA Becomes Billion-Dollar Brand, UGG Sustains Record Revenue
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) FY25 (Mar) revenue $4.986B (+16%); gross margin 57.9% (+230bp); op margin 23.6% (+200bp); NI $966M (+27%); EPS $6.33 (+30%); FCF $958M. HOKA global revenue $2.229B (+24%); wholesale +24%, DTC +23%, international +39% (now 34% global). UGG global revenue $2.531B (+13%); wholesale +15%, DTC +11%, international +20% (now 39% global). 365 initiative: Lowmel doubled Q3 FY26, Tasman/Ultra Mini year-round; male consumer expansion. FY26 H1: Q1 revenue $965M (+17%, HOKA $653M +20% — largest ever quarter); Q2 $1.43B (+9%); Q3 $1.96B (+7%, UGG record $1.3B, HOKA $629M +18%). FY26 raised guidance: revenue $5.4-5.425B, HOKA mid-teens growth, UGG mid-SD, gross margin ~57%, adj EPS $6.80-6.85 (+7-8%). Board $2.25B new buyback auth (Q4 FY25); $2.5B remaining Q2 FY26; buyback $567M FY25. Total debt $277M (minimal). Tariff headwind: unmitigated ~$150M FY26, mitigation ~$75-95M net. Risks: tariff Vietnam/China, consumer macro, HOKA brand heat sustainability, UGG seasonality, currency, competition (ONON, Nike, New Balance), CEO transition, supply chain.