Research · Sep 3, 2026
[CNC] Centene Thesis 2026: Marketplace Repricing Restores Earnings Floor After Guidance Reset
Centene FY25 revenue $194.78B (+19%); op income -$7.62B (vs +$3.18B FY24); NI -$6.67B; EPS -$13.62. Adj EPS ~$2 (vs $6.31 FY24) reflects Marketplace morbidity shift + Medicaid trend pressure. Q2 alone $2.4B pretax morbidity headwind. Q4 Medicaid HBR 93.0% (-190bp from Q2 peak 94.9%). Marketplace 5.8M Q3 → repriced 95%+ for FY26 (3.5M expected by Q1 FY26 after eAPTC expiration). Medicare Advantage on track for 2027 breakeven. FY26 guide: adj EPS >$3 (+40% YoY); premium + service revenue $170-$174B; Medicaid member months -5-6%; Marketplace -$8B revenue; Medicare +$7.5B; consolidated HBR 90.9-91.7% (-60bp midpoint).