Research · Sep 3, 2026
[BPOP] Popular Inc. Thesis 2026: Puerto Rico Banking Cycle Drives US Northeast Capital Return
Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP) FY2025 revenue ~$2.95-3.10B (+5-9%) with adj. EPS ~$10.50-11.50 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$2.55-2.65B aggregate Net Interest Income (~85%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary ~$70-73B aggregate average earning assets + ~3.20-3.40% aggregate net interest margin) + selected continued post-2024 ~$420-470M aggregate Non-Interest Income (~14% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Wealth Management + selected various aggregate Insurance + selected various aggregate Treasury Management + selected various aggregate Mortgage Banking) under continued President + CEO Ignacio Alvarez since 2017 (~8-year tenure as Popular Inc. CEO). The largest Puerto Rico-based regional bank + selected various aggregate US Northeast Banco Popular North America regional bank holding company. Founded 1893 as Banco Popular de Puerto Rico in Río Piedras Puerto Rico (~132-year heritage); selected post-1980s NASDAQ listing; selected post-2010-2012 Westernbank Puerto Rico + Eurobank ($1B+); selected post-2017 Ignacio Alvarez CEO appointment. Headquartered in San Juan Puerto Rico; ~9,000-10,000+ employees globally with ~$2.95-3.10B revenue. One primary business: Puerto Rico + US Northeast regional bank (~100%). Structure: Net Interest Income (~85%+ ~$2.55-2.65B), Non-Interest Income (~14% ~$420-470M). Geographic mix: Puerto Rico ~70%+ + US Northeast ~30%. Puerto Rico banking cycle (~50%+ market share): ~$2.55-2.65B Net Interest Income; ~50%+ aggregate Puerto Rico banking market share; ~2.5M+ aggregate customers; ~$70-73B aggregate Total Assets. US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle: ~30% aggregate US Northeast revenue mix; selected primary Banco Popular North America New York + New Jersey + Florida; ~+3-5% aggregate US Northeast Loan growth; selected various aggregate Hispanic-focused regional banking aggregate community lending strategy. President + CEO Ignacio Alvarez since 2017 (~8-year tenure); CFO Jorge Garcia. Capital return: ~$2.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~9-year continuous dividend track post-2017 dividend reinitiation); ~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$200-300M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$385-500M FY2025; CET1 ratio ~16-17%; net leverage / debt-to-equity ~0.8-1.0x; investment-grade Baa2/BBB- credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Puerto Rico banking cycle (~50%+ market share) + US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle + ~$2.80 annual dividend + ~9-year continuous dividend track + ~$385-560M aggregate annual capital return + ~16-17% CET1. Risks: FirstBank Puerto Rico + Oriental Bank + JPMorgan + Bank of America + Citi + Wells Fargo + Webster Financial + Banco Santander competition, Federal Reserve rate dynamics, Puerto Rico economic cycle considerations, Commercial Real Estate cycle.