Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP) FY2025 revenue ~$2.95-3.10B (+5-9%) with adj. EPS ~$10.50-11.50 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$2.55-2.65B aggregate Net Interest Income (~85%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary ~$70-73B aggregate average earning assets + ~3.20-3.40% aggregate net interest margin) + selected continued post-2024 ~$420-470M aggregate Non-Interest Income (~14% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Wealth Management + selected various aggregate Insurance + selected various aggregate Treasury Management + selected various aggregate Mortgage Banking) under continued President + CEO Ignacio Alvarez since 2017 (~8-year tenure as Popular Inc. CEO). The largest Puerto Rico-based regional bank + selected various aggregate US Northeast Banco Popular North America regional bank holding company. Founded 1893 as Banco Popular de Puerto Rico in Río Piedras Puerto Rico (~132-year heritage); selected post-1980s NASDAQ listing; selected post-2010-2012 Westernbank Puerto Rico + Eurobank ($1B+); selected post-2017 Ignacio Alvarez CEO appointment. Headquartered in San Juan Puerto Rico; ~9,000-10,000+ employees globally with ~$2.95-3.10B revenue. One primary business: Puerto Rico + US Northeast regional bank (~100%). Structure: Net Interest Income (~85%+ ~$2.55-2.65B), Non-Interest Income (~14% ~$420-470M). Geographic mix: Puerto Rico ~70%+ + US Northeast ~30%. Puerto Rico banking cycle (~50%+ market share): ~$2.55-2.65B Net Interest Income; ~50%+ aggregate Puerto Rico banking market share; ~2.5M+ aggregate customers; ~$70-73B aggregate Total Assets. US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle: ~30% aggregate US Northeast revenue mix; selected primary Banco Popular North America New York + New Jersey + Florida; ~+3-5% aggregate US Northeast Loan growth; selected various aggregate Hispanic-focused regional banking aggregate community lending strategy. President + CEO Ignacio Alvarez since 2017 (~8-year tenure); CFO Jorge Garcia. Capital return: ~$2.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~9-year continuous dividend track post-2017 dividend reinitiation); ~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$200-300M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$385-500M FY2025; CET1 ratio ~16-17%; net leverage / debt-to-equity ~0.8-1.0x; investment-grade Baa2/BBB- credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Puerto Rico banking cycle (~50%+ market share) + US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle + ~$2.80 annual dividend + ~9-year continuous dividend track + ~$385-560M aggregate annual capital return + ~16-17% CET1. Risks: FirstBank Puerto Rico + Oriental Bank + JPMorgan + Bank of America + Citi + Wells Fargo + Webster Financial + Banco Santander competition, Federal Reserve rate dynamics, Puerto Rico economic cycle considerations, Commercial Real Estate cycle.

[BPOP] Popular Inc. Thesis 2026: Puerto Rico Banking Cycle Drives US Northeast Capital Return

Key Takeaways

BPOP FY2025 revenue ~$2.95-3.10B (+5-9% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$10.50-11.50 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$2.55-2.65B aggregate Net Interest Income (~85%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary ~$70-73B aggregate average earning assets + ~3.20-3.40% aggregate net interest margin) + selected continued post-2024 ~$420-470M aggregate Non-Interest Income (~14% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Wealth Management + selected various aggregate Insurance + selected various aggregate Treasury Management + selected various aggregate Mortgage Banking) under continued President + CEO Ignacio Alvarez since 2017 (~8-year tenure as Popular Inc. CEO; selected continued post-2017 Alvarez succeeded Richard Carrion retirement; selected continued Richard Carrion as Director).
Puerto Rico banking cycle (~50%+ market share): ~$2.55-2.65B aggregate Net Interest Income (~85%+ revenue mix); selected primary Puerto Rico (~50%+ aggregate Puerto Rico banking market share) + selected various aggregate US Northeast (Banco Popular North America selected primary New York + New Jersey + Florida); selected ~2.5M+ aggregate aggregate customers; selected continued post-2024 selected various aggregate ~+5-7% aggregate Net Interest Income growth.
US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle: selected primary post-2024 selected various aggregate Banco Popular North America US Northeast (New York + New Jersey + Florida) regional bank + selected ~30% aggregate US Northeast revenue mix; selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate US Northeast Loan growth + selected various aggregate Hispanic-focused regional banking aggregate community lending strategy.
Capital return + balance sheet: ~~$2.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~~$0.70/quarter; ~+12-15% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~9-year continuous dividend track post-2017 dividend reinitiation); ~~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~~$200-300M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$385-500M FY2025; CET1 ratio ~16-17%; net leverage / debt-to-equity ~0.8-1.0x; investment-grade Baa2/BBB- credit rating.
FY2026 thesis catalysts: Puerto Rico banking cycle (~50%+ market share) + US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle + ~$2.80 annual dividend + ~9-year continuous dividend track + ~$385-500M aggregate annual capital return + ~16-17% CET1 + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration.

Company Background

Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP) is the largest Puerto Rico-based regional bank + selected various aggregate US Northeast Banco Popular North America regional bank holding company, founded 1893 as Banco Popular de Puerto Rico in Río Piedras Puerto Rico (~132-year heritage; selected pioneer Puerto Rico community banking). Selected post-1980s NASDAQ listing transition; selected post-1980s-2024 selected various aggregate ~$5B+ aggregate cumulative tuck-in M&A platform expansion (selected post-1991 Pan American Bank + selected post-2010-2012 ~$1.0B+ Westernbank Puerto Rico + Eurobank + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico + US Northeast aggregate consolidations); selected post-2017 Ignacio Alvarez CEO appointment (succeeded post-2017 Richard Carrion retirement; selected continued Richard Carrion as Director; selected continued aggregate Carrion family + selected various aggregate residual ownership); HQ San Juan Puerto Rico; ~9,000-10,000+ employees globally.

BPOP operates 1 primary business: Puerto Rico + US Northeast regional bank ~~100% revenue (~~$2.95-3.10B). Net Interest Income ~~85%+ revenue mix (~~$2.55-2.65B; selected primary ~$70-73B aggregate average earning assets + ~3.20-3.40% aggregate net interest margin) + Non-Interest Income ~~14% revenue mix (~~$420-470M; selected primary Wealth Management + Insurance + Treasury Management + Mortgage Banking). Geographic mix: Puerto Rico ~~70%+ revenue (~~$2.10-2.20B; selected primary ~50%+ aggregate Puerto Rico banking market share) + US Northeast ~~30% (~~$890-930M; selected primary Banco Popular North America New York + New Jersey + Florida).

Capital return: ~~$2.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~~$0.70/quarter; ~+12-15% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~9-year continuous dividend track post-2017 dividend reinitiation); ~~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~~$200-300M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$385-500M FY2025; CET1 ratio ~16-17%; net leverage / debt-to-equity ~0.8-1.0x; investment-grade Baa2/BBB- credit rating.

Puerto Rico Banking Cycle (~50%+ Market Share)

The Puerto Rico banking cycle is BPOP's foundation thesis: ~$2.55-2.65B aggregate Net Interest Income (~85%+ revenue mix) + selected primary Puerto Rico (~50%+ aggregate Puerto Rico banking market share) + selected various aggregate US Northeast + selected ~2.5M+ aggregate aggregate customers + selected continued post-2024 selected various aggregate ~+5-7% aggregate Net Interest Income growth. Selected primary BPOP Puerto Rico platform: ~50%+ aggregate Puerto Rico banking market share + selected various aggregate ~$50-55B aggregate Puerto Rico Total Assets + selected various aggregate ~$30-35B aggregate Puerto Rico Total Loans + Leases + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico Wealth Management + Insurance.

FY2025 NII dynamics ($2.55-2.65B aggregate Net Interest Income): selected continued post-2024 ~$70-73B aggregate average earning assets + ~3.20-3.40% aggregate net interest margin + selected various aggregate Federal Reserve rate dynamics + selected various aggregate ~+5-7% aggregate Loan growth + selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate Deposit growth. Selected post-2024 ~$0.30-0.45 incremental annual EPS contribution as Puerto Rico banking cycle drives incremental NII.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Puerto Rico banking cycle + ~$0.30-0.45 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued President + CEO Ignacio Alvarez leadership (~8-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$2.65-2.80B aggregate Net Interest Income + selected various ~3.20-3.40% aggregate NIM + selected various ~+3-5% aggregate Loan growth + selected various ~+3-5% aggregate Deposit growth. Risks: FirstBank Puerto Rico + Oriental Bank + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico regional banks + JPMorgan + Bank of America + Citi + Banco Santander Puerto Rico + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico economic cycle considerations + selected various aggregate Federal Reserve rate dynamics.

US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) Cycle

The US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle is BPOP's primary growth thesis: selected primary post-2024 selected various aggregate Banco Popular North America US Northeast (New York + New Jersey + Florida) regional bank + selected ~30% aggregate US Northeast revenue mix + selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate US Northeast Loan growth + selected various aggregate Hispanic-focused regional banking aggregate community lending strategy.

FY2025 US Northeast dynamics: selected ~30% aggregate US Northeast revenue mix + selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate US Northeast Loan growth + selected various aggregate Banco Popular North America New York + New Jersey + Florida + selected various aggregate Hispanic-focused regional banking aggregate community lending strategy. Selected post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution as US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle drives incremental NII.

FY2026 catalyst: continued US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~30% aggregate US Northeast revenue mix + selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate US Northeast Loan growth + selected various aggregate Banco Popular North America New York + New Jersey + Florida + selected various aggregate Hispanic-focused regional banking aggregate community lending strategy. Risks: JPMorgan + Bank of America + Citi + Wells Fargo + Webster Financial + Valley National Bancorp + selected various aggregate US Northeast regional banks + selected various aggregate competitive displacement.

Capital Return + Dividend Track

Capital return + dividend track: ~~$2.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~~$0.70/quarter; ~+12-15% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~9-year continuous dividend track post-2017 dividend reinitiation) + ~~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~~$200-300M aggregate FY2025) + aggregate capital return ~$385-500M FY2025 + CET1 ratio ~16-17% + net leverage / debt-to-equity ~0.8-1.0x + investment-grade Baa2/BBB- credit rating.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~~$2.80-3.10 aggregate dividend (~~+10-15% aggregate selected dividend acceleration) + selected continued ~$200-300M aggregate annual buybacks + selected continued ~16-17% CET1. Selected ~9-year continuous dividend track + selected post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected ~16-17% CET1 support continued capital return + R&D + tuck-in M&A capacity. Selected aggregate ~$385-560M aggregate annual capital return FY2026.

Key Core Metrics

FY2025 revenue ~$2.95-3.10B (+5-9% YoY) vs $2.85B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$10.50-11.50
1 segment: Puerto Rico + US Northeast regional bank ~100%
Geographic mix: Puerto Rico ~70%+ + US Northeast ~30%
~50%+ aggregate Puerto Rico banking market share
Total Assets: ~$70-73B; Total Loans + Leases ~$48-52B; Total Deposits ~$60-63B
Net Interest Margin (NIM): ~3.20-3.40%
~67-69M diluted shares; ~$385-500M total capital return FY2025
~$2.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~9-year continuous dividend track post-2017 dividend reinitiation)
~~$300-450M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~~$200-300M aggregate FY2025)
CET1 ratio ~16-17%; net leverage / debt-to-equity ~0.8-1.0x
Investment-grade Baa2/BBB- credit rating
President + CEO Ignacio Alvarez (since 2017, ~8-year tenure); CFO Jorge Garcia
Selected post-2017 Richard Carrion retirement; selected continued Richard Carrion as Director

Market Evaluation

BPOP trades as the largest Puerto Rico-based regional bank + US Northeast Banco Popular North America regional bank levered to Puerto Rico banking cycle (~50%+ market share) + US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle + selected ~9-year continuous dividend track. Bull case: ~$2.55-2.65B NII + ~3.20-3.40% NIM + ~$48-52B Loans + ~50%+ aggregate Puerto Rico banking market share + ~$2.80 dividend (~9-year track) + ~$385-500M capital return drive ~$11.50-12.50 adj. EPS FY2026 (+5-10% YoY). Bear case: FirstBank Puerto Rico + Oriental Bank + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico regional banks + JPMorgan + Bank of America + Citi + Wells Fargo + Webster Financial + Valley National Bancorp + Banco Santander Puerto Rico competitive displacement + Federal Reserve rate dynamics + Puerto Rico economic cycle considerations + Commercial Real Estate cycle considerations trigger material EPS compression. Base case: Puerto Rico banking cycle + US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle + ~9-year continuous dividend track + ~16-17% CET1 discipline support continued ~$11.50-12.50 adj. EPS + ~$385-560M aggregate capital return FY2026.

Puerto Rico Banking Cycle Drives US Northeast Capital Return Deep Dive

Selected continued post-2024 ~$2.55-2.65B aggregate Net Interest Income (~85%+ revenue mix; selected primary ~$70-73B aggregate average earning assets + ~3.20-3.40% aggregate net interest margin) + selected continued post-2024 ~$420-470M aggregate Non-Interest Income (~14% revenue mix; selected primary Wealth Management + Insurance + Treasury Management + Mortgage Banking) + selected continued post-2024 selected primary Puerto Rico (~50%+ aggregate Puerto Rico banking market share) + selected continued post-2024 selected various aggregate US Northeast (Banco Popular North America New York + New Jersey + Florida) + selected continued post-2024 ~2.5M+ aggregate aggregate customers + selected continued post-2024 ~$70-73B aggregate Total Assets + selected continued post-2024 ~$48-52B aggregate Total Loans + Leases + selected continued post-2024 ~$60-63B aggregate Total Deposits + selected continued post-2024 ~+5-7% aggregate Net Interest Income growth + selected continued post-2024 ~+3-5% aggregate Loan growth + selected continued post-2024 ~+3-5% aggregate Deposit growth + selected ~~$2.80 annual dividend (~~+12-15% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~9-year continuous dividend track post-2017 dividend reinitiation) + selected ~16-17% CET1 + investment-grade Baa2/BBB- credit rating drive BPOP's primary FY2026 thesis. President + CEO Ignacio Alvarez (~8-year tenure) leadership continues post-2017 CEO appointment focus on Puerto Rico banking cycle + US Northeast (Banco Popular North America) cycle + capital return discipline + selected continued post-2017 Richard Carrion retirement + Richard Carrion as Director transition. Risks: FirstBank Puerto Rico + Oriental Bank + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico regional banks + JPMorgan + Bank of America + Citi + Wells Fargo + Webster Financial + Valley National Bancorp + Banco Santander Puerto Rico + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico + US Northeast regional banks + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + selected various aggregate Puerto Rico economic cycle considerations + Federal Reserve rate dynamics + selected various aggregate Commercial Real Estate cycle considerations + selected post-1893 founding heritage continuity considerations.