Research · Sep 3, 2026
[BKNG] Booking Thesis 2026: Travel Volume Hits Record, Air Tickets Surge
Booking Holdings FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $26.92B revenue (+13.4%, +10% ex-FX). Merchant $17.76B (+25.5%, now 66% of total); Agency $7.97B (-6.5%); Advertising/Other $1.19B (+11%). Room nights 1.24B (+8%); air tickets 68M (+37%, nearly doubled in 2 years). Total gross bookings $186.1B (+12.4%). Net income ~$5.4B (-8% YoY). OCF $9.4B; FCF $9.09B (+15%). Capital return $7.6B (buyback $6.4B + div $1.2B). New $20B buyback authorization Q1 2025. Feb 2026 $10.50/share special dividend declared. 4-for-1 stock split effective March 28, 2026. Post-split PT range $210-$260, consensus Buy.