Research · Sep 3, 2026
Bank of America FY2025 NII recovered to ~$59B (from FY2024 dip of $56B) as deposit beta dynamics stabilized; net income ~$30B; adj. EPS ~$3.70. Buybacks accelerated to ~$10-12B (vs $3B FY2024) as capital position improved (CET1 12.5%). Consumer Banking ($1.9T retail deposits at ~2.0-2.5% avg cost vs Fed funds ~5%) generates structural NII spread advantage that smaller banks cannot match. FY2026 thesis: NII sustainability through Fed cutting cycle (deposit beta ~25-35% means ~100bps Fed cut reduces NII ~4-7%); commercial real estate office (~$80B exposure) credit costs manageable within current 6-8% reserve coverage; capital return acceleration continues; key risks: aggressive Fed cuts (300+ bps) compress NII materially, CRE office credit deteriorates beyond reserves, recession-driven C&I credit costs.
Research · Jun 11, 2026
BAC dual catalyst: CCAR stress test buffer + May CPI release. 100 bp buffer release would add $20B+ buyback capacity over 2 years.
Research · Jun 10, 2026
Univ of Michigan sentiment hit a 74-year low while JPM Q1 EPS came in at $5.94 with loan growth intact. Bifurcated consumer explains the divergence.
Research · Jun 9, 2026
Goldman Solomon: 'no AI jobs apocalypse'. GS/JPM/MS price margin expansion (productivity) not headcount compression. Cohort positioning across three scenarios.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad on April 11 signal Middle East de-escalation, favoring integrated oils like XOM and CVX for stable refining, big banks JPM/BAC for lower provisions, and services SLB amid resilient rigs—while upstream OXY lags. Ranked conviction prioritizes cash-rich names. Watch negotiation breakthroughs and oil flows.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
US-Iran talks in Pakistan on April 11 signal Middle East de-escalation, lowering oil premiums and volatility to favor integrated majors (CVX, XOM), banks (JPM, BAC), services (SLB), and upstream (OXY). Ranked conviction highlights CVX and XOM for stability and FCF.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
US regulators' warning on Anthropic Mythos AI cyber threats highlights vulnerabilities at major banks like JPM, BAC, and WFC, while creating tailwinds for cybersecurity leaders CRWD, PANW, and ZS. The article analyzes exposure, financials, and ranks conviction plays amid rising AI-driven risks.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Hotter CPI has bond markets pricing fewer 2025 Fed cuts, favoring banks like JPM, BAC, and WFC via NIM expansion while hurting REITs (PLD, O) and homebuilders (DHI) with higher costs and weak demand. JPM leads conviction ranking; avoid leveraged real estate. Article analyzes financials, guidance, and exposures.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Jamie Dimon's April 11 warning spotlights inflation, deficits, and geopolitics, favoring XOM and WMT as winners while pressuring NVDA and PLD. JPM and BAC offer mixed bank exposure with strong fundamentals. Ranked picks prioritize resilient cash flows over growth hype.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
The Iran ceasefire sparked a market rally just as NFLX, JPM, BAC, and WFC kick off Q1 earnings, per MarketWatch on April 9, 2026. Strong guidance, EPS beat history, and cheap bank vals position them to extend gains, with NFLX's ad/live momentum leading. Bulls eye 10-15% upside if beats confirm resilience.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
April 10, 2026 Treasury yields snapshot signals volatility surge, favoring banks/insurers like PGR, JPM, BAC via NII/margins while pressuring REITs (PLD, EQIX) and NVDA on costs/valuations. PGR tops conviction ranks for pristine balance sheet and yield leverage.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Bond traders' inflation hedges spotlight hawkish Fed risks, positioning banks like JPM and BAC for NIM gains while utilities (NEE, DUK), REITs (PLD), and HD face debt and demand headwinds. JPM tops conviction rankings with superior scale; DUK ranks most vulnerable. Elevated rates reshape sector winners and losers.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Resilient U.S. labor data ahead of PPI and Goldman earnings signals fewer Fed cuts, boosting big banks' NII. JPM, BAC, and WFC lead with strong deposits and growth guidance, while GS and COF lag on exposure.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
ETF Trends' March 2026 10-year Treasury yield analysis forecasts elevated rates, favoring banks like JPM and BAC via NIM expansion while pressuring leveraged utilities (NEE, DUK) and REITs (PLD, AMT) on debt costs and valuations. JPM tops conviction rankings for its balance sheet strength; AMT ranks as most vulnerable.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
April 1's strong US data reduced Fed cut bets, favoring banks (JPM, BAC) and cyclicals (CAT, XOM) via higher NII and demand, while REITs (PLD, EQIX) face debt headwinds. JPM leads conviction at cheap multiples; ranked picks prioritize resilient earners.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Jane Fraser's NY Fed Council appointment spotlights big banks' rotating regulatory influence, with JPM, Citi, and MS best positioned for policy foresight amid flat TTM growth and weak shares. Analysis ranks six majors by exposure, metrics, and conviction. Key: NII guidance and Basel outcomes to track.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Anchored in Morgan Stanley's insights on AI, energy, and oil driving M&A, this analyzes six firms' exposure to Q1's megadeal boom. Boutiques like Evercore and Houlihan Lokey lead conviction rankings due to high-margin advisory focus, followed by bulge-bracket giants.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Trump's Iran de-escalation signals dropped Brent below $100, pressuring pure energy plays while boosting banks and integrated majors via stability and refining gains. JPM and XOM top the winners list with strong FCF and low multiples; OXY lags as upstream exposure bites. Investors should favor diversified resilience over high-beta oil bets.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
US AML regulatory proposal burdens banks like JPM, BAC, PYPL with costs but fuels demand for NICE, FISV, JKHY compliance tech. Article analyzes exposure, metrics, and ranks picks.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Iran conflict signals stress US short-term credit, benefiting safe Treasuries like SHY and resilient banks like JPM while pressuring leveraged names like WFC and corporate bonds like LQD. Analysis ranks 6 plays by exposure and valuation. Key metrics show banks' liquidity buffers amid recent price weakness.
