Skip to content

ASTLW

Algoma Steel Group Inc.

NASDAQ · Basic Materials · Steel · CA

$0.01
+19.88%
Ask drillr

Next report

Analyst consensus

Next report date
Nov 4, 2026
EPS estimate
-$0.48
Revenue estimate
$174.2M

Latest reported

Last report date
Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
-$0.62
EPS estimate
-$0.60
Revenue actual
$188.3M
Revenue estimate
$205.6M

Track record

Trailing twelve quarters

EPS beats (12Q)
3
EPS misses (12Q)
6
EPS in line (12Q)
0
Avg surprise (4Q)
-184.1%
Revenue beats (12Q)
5
Earnings call summaryRead the full call →

Q3 FY2025 · Oct 30, 2025

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice

Management highlights

  • Safety: Maintained strong safety performance, core to operations.
  • Trade Impact: U.S. 50% tariffs closed market, driving lower shipments and higher costs. Pivoted go-to-market strategy.
  • Liquidity: Secured $500 million in government support and expanded $375 million ABL facility, strengthening liquidity.
  • Operational Pivot: Accelerating EAF transformation, focusing on domestic products to reduce cash burn. EAF Unit 1 commissioning and ramp-up progressing, with cumulative investment at $910 million as of Sep 30, 2025.
  • Plate Mill: Plate shipments in Q3 were ~97,000 tons, expect Q4 production to increase as Canada's only discrete plate producer.

Guidance

  • Expect significant inventory drawdown starting Q4 2025 and accelerating in 2026 as transitioning to EAF supply chain.
  • Accelerating EAF transition to be complete earlier than original plan, aiming for lowest cost and flexible position.
  • Expect EBITDA breakeven in volumes once EAF transition is fully complete, with plate side making money and coil still challenged due to tariffs.
  • Anticipate insurance proceeds of $30-50 million more, significant working capital release over next 12 months (> $100M), and tax refunds from losses incurred.

Segment performance

In the third quarter, steel revenue was $473 million, down 12.2% vs prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $87.1 million. Plate shipments totaled approximately 97,000 tons in Q3, roughly in line with prior quarter despite a planned 2-week outage. Net sales realization averaged $1,129 per ton. Cost per ton of steel products sold averaged $1,282, up 24.2% vs prior year. Tariffs costs were $90 million in Q3. Net loss was $485.1 million, driven by a $503 million noncash impairment loss.

Risks & headwinds

  • Trade disruptions due to U.S. tariffs undermining cross-border business model.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty compounding industry headwinds.
  • Inventory build and related costs impact.
  • Uncertainty around market normalization and its impact on margins and cost structure.

Analyst Q&A

Q: In the event of continued 50% tariffs, outline production profile in 2026 and EBITDA breakeven?

A: Accelerating EAF transition, aiming for full EAF production earlier, expecting 1-1.2 million tons in 2026, and EBITDA breakeven when transition fully complete.

Q: Plate production down sequentially, expect rise?

A: Partly due to reorienting demand and maintenance days, but plate mill running at full production except maintenance.

Q: Capital infusions from insurance, grants, taxes?

A: Expect $30-50M more in insurance proceeds, over $100M-$150M working capital release, and tax refunds from losses.

Q: Canadian market implications of trade barriers?

A: Seen interest from various sectors, but hard to give specific demand numbers, but bullish on plate market future based on nation-building agenda.

Q: Use of credit facilities as cash burn increases?

A: Intend to draw secured line first then unsecured line, managing warrants and cash use optimally

Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 4, 2026