Algoma Steel Group Inc. Q3 FY2025 earnings call

• Safety: Maintained strong safety performance, core to operations.
• Trade Impact: U.S. 50% tariffs closed market, driving lower shipments and higher costs. Pivoted go-to-market strategy.
• Liquidity: Secured $500 million in government support and expanded $375 million ABL facility, strengthening liquidity.
• Operational Pivot: Accelerating EAF transformation, focusing on domestic products to reduce cash burn. EAF Unit 1 commissioning and ramp-up progressing, with cumulative investment at $910 million as of Sep 30, 2025.
• Plate Mill: Plate shipments in Q3 were ~97,000 tons, expect Q4 production to increase as Canada's only discrete plate producer.

In the third quarter, steel revenue was $473 million, down 12.2% vs prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $87.1 million. Plate shipments totaled approximately 97,000 tons in Q3, roughly in line with prior quarter despite a planned 2-week outage. Net sales realization averaged $1,129 per ton. Cost per ton of steel products sold averaged $1,282, up 24.2% vs prior year. Tariffs costs were $90 million in Q3. Net loss was $485.1 million, driven by a $503 million noncash impairment loss.

• Expect significant inventory drawdown starting Q4 2025 and accelerating in 2026 as transitioning to EAF supply chain.
• Accelerating EAF transition to be complete earlier than original plan, aiming for lowest cost and flexible position.
• Expect EBITDA breakeven in volumes once EAF transition is fully complete, with plate side making money and coil still challenged due to tariffs.
• Anticipate insurance proceeds of $30-50 million more, significant working capital release over next 12 months (> $100M), and tax refunds from losses incurred.

• Trade disruptions due to U.S. tariffs undermining cross-border business model.
• Macroeconomic uncertainty compounding industry headwinds.
• Inventory build and related costs impact.
• Uncertainty around market normalization and its impact on margins and cost structure.

Q: In the event of continued 50% tariffs, outline production profile in 2026 and EBITDA breakeven?

A: Accelerating EAF transition, aiming for full EAF production earlier, expecting 1-1.2 million tons in 2026, and EBITDA breakeven when transition fully complete.

Q: Plate production down sequentially, expect rise?

A: Partly due to reorienting demand and maintenance days, but plate mill running at full production except maintenance.

Q: Capital infusions from insurance, grants, taxes?

A: Expect $30-50M more in insurance proceeds, over $100M-$150M working capital release, and tax refunds from losses.

Q: Canadian market implications of trade barriers?

A: Seen interest from various sectors, but hard to give specific demand numbers, but bullish on plate market future based on nation-building agenda.

Q: Use of credit facilities as cash burn increases?

A: Intend to draw secured line first then unsecured line, managing warrants and cash use optimally