Vistra Corp. Q4 FY2024 earnings call

• 2024 was transformational with acquisition of three new nuclear sites and one million retail customers, license renewal for Comanche Peak, and strong retail performance. • Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $5.656 billion, exceeding guidance even with $545M nuclear production tax credit benefit in Q4. • Key strategic priorities: integrated business model, comprehensive hedging, high commercial availability for generation (gas/coal fleet ~95%, nuclear fleet 92% capacity factor), and retail growth with customer account growth. • Capital allocation: $5.9B returned to investors since Q4 2021, expect $2B more in 2025-2026, and $700M+ spend on solar/energy storage in 2025. • Moss Landing site fire: Phase one battery offline, others assessed, combined cycle plant restarted. • Load growth in PJM and ERCOT with revised load forecasts upward, exceeding historical rates.

No detailed product segment financial performance with revenue contribution % provided in the transcript.

• Reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EBITDA range $5.5B-$6.1B and adjusted free cash flow before growth range $3B-$3.6B. • Maintained 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity over $6B, hedge ratio increased to 80% since Q3. • Expect $700M+ spend on solar/energy storage in 2025, moderate step down in 2026, and at least $1.3B return to shareholders in 2025-2026.

• Moss Landing fire with uncertainty on insurance recoveries (up to $500M). • Regulatory and legislative uncertainty in PJM and ERCOT affecting market design and grid reliability. • Complexity in data center colocation deals and need for regulatory clarity.

Q: Clarity on Moss Landing insurance?

A: Kris Moldovan stated there's an insurance policy covering Moss Landing battery assets with a limit of $500M and expectation to receive up to that amount.

Q: Disconnect between forward prices and customer views?

A: Jim Burke noted there's no single clearing price for deals. It depends on site characteristics, transaction nature, and speed to market. Conversations are one-to-one and conservative, with activity ongoing but not yet announced.