Vistra Corp. Q1 FY2025 earnings call

• Integrated business model: A diversified portfolio of generation assets (nuclear, gas), strong retail business, and commercial capabilities form a resilient model.
• Strategic priorities: Four strategic priorities drive long-term success, including an integrated business model and comprehensive hedging program.
• Operational performance: Generation team achieved ~95% commercial availability; retail side had organic growth in Texas.
• Capital allocation: Disciplined approach to returning capital to shareholders, investing in growth projects, and maintaining a balance sheet with net leverage under 3x.
• Growth projects: Permian peakers, solar and energy storage projects (Oak Hill, Pulaski, Newton), nuclear uprates, and coal-to-gas conversions.
• Load growth: Electricity load growth is a structural tailwind, with data center demand a key driver, and Vistra positioned to serve through existing and new assets.

Vistra's first quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $1,240 million. Generation contributed $1,056 million, which is approximately 85.16% of the total adjusted EBITDA, and retail contributed $184 million, making up approximately 14.84% of the total.

• Reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance: $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion; adjusted free cash flow before growth: $3 billion to $3.6 billion.
• 2026 outlook: Confident in delivering significantly above $6 billion, with ~95% of expected generation hedged for 2025-2026.
• 2026 guidance not updated yet, but midpoint opportunity approaching mid to high $6 billion, possibly $7 billion. Expected to provide 2026 guidance on the third quarter call.

• Policy uncertainties: Uncertainties around SB6 in Texas and PJM regulatory processes.
• Market volatility: Impact of macro environment and regulatory changes on power markets.
• Hedging uncertainties: Uncertainties around capacity auctions and perfecting hedges for future years.
• Environmental regulations: Impact of environmental rules on coal-to-gas conversions and nuclear upgrades.

Q: Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners asked about Comanche Peak deal conversations and SB6.

A: Jim Burke discussed co-location, front of the meter, and SB6's potential impact.

Q: Julian Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies LLC asked about 2027 outlook.

A: Jim Burke mentioned 2027 and beyond look strong but hedging out as far is not always possible.

Q: Angie Storozynski from Seaport asked about 2026 guidance.

A: Jim Burke explained they are not ready to provide updated guidance yet, planning to do so on third quarter call.

Q: Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan asked about PJM and Texas markets.

A: Jim Burke and Stacey Doré discussed PJM's capacity auction and Texas' data center efforts.

Q: David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley asked about market prices and DC efforts.

A: Jim Burke talked about price signals and DC political efforts.

Q: Steven Fleishman from Wolfe Research asked about data center demand and coal retirements.

A: Kris Moldovan discussed data center demand confidence and coal-to-gas conversions.

Q: Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI asked about Senate Bill 6 and FERC co-location.

A: Jim Burke and Stacey Doré discussed SB6's impact and FERC's timeline.