Vistra Corp. Q4 FY2025 earnings call

• 2025 was transformational for Vistra with strategic asset acquisitions, including seven modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners and the agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy. - Contracted significant nuclear capacity, with approximately 3.8 gigawatts contracted through multiple power purchase agreements. - U.S. electricity consumption reached an all-time peak in 2025, with expected growth in 2026 and 2027. - Winter Storm Fern in January demonstrated strong operation of the generation fleet and commercial risk management. - The integrated business model showed value with consistent operational performance from generation, commercial, and retail teams.

For full year 2025, Vistra achieved approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Generation contributed $4,290,000,000 and retail contributed $1,622,000,000. The generation segment benefited from a comprehensive hedging program, with strong realized revenue across the fleet offsetting some outages. The retail segment performed well with strong customer count and margin performance.

• Project to generate more than $10 billion of cash through year-end 2027. - Expect adjusted free cash flow before growth per share to exceed $12.50 for 2026 and increase to approximately $16 with additional actions like the Cogentrix acquisition and Meta power purchase agreements. - Target leverage to decline and aim for investment-grade credit ratings. - Share repurchase program continues with approximately $1.8 billion of authorization remaining, and expects to continue using a 10b51 plan.

• Question from Char Perez with Wells Fargo about PJM rule changes impact on Meta deal and hyperscaler appetite around gas risk. Answer from Stacey: PJM rule changes not affecting Meta deal; hyperscalers interested in gas risk structures with fixed capacity plus variable gas risk. - Question from Angie Straczynski with Seaport about contracting existing assets vs new build and PJM new build. Answer from Stacey: Hyperscalers interested in both; PJM reliability backstop auction clarity will affect new build discussions. - Question from Jeremy Toaday at JP Morgan about 2027 midpoint opportunity and upside drivers. Answer from Stacey: Will update guidance with Cogentrix deal closing; free cash flow per share could be in $22 - $25 range with certain assumptions. - Question from Steve Fleishman at Wolf Research about equipment/EPC capability and balance sheet targets. Answer from Chris: Well positioned with equipment/EPC; balance sheet focused on investment grade ratings with balanced capital allocation. - Question from Andrew Wiesel with Scotiabank about nuclear upgrades and repurchases flexibility. Answer from Stacey: Nuclear upgrades cover identified opportunities; repurchase program structured with flexibility to increase pace during price pressure. - Question from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley about data center contracting timing and Comanche Peak upgrade. Answer from Stacey: Multiple conversations underway; focused on executing Comanche Peak data center for now with potential for upgrades and new generation in the future.