The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Earnings
The Progressive Corporation is expected to report next earnings on July 15, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.74. PGR has beaten EPS estimates in 8 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -0.6% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | $4.85 | $4.96 | +2.3% | $23.6B | +2.9% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $4.44 | $4.67 | +5.2% | $15.0B | -26.1% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | $4.99 | $4.05 | -18.8% | $22.5B | +3.3% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | $4.48 | $4.88 | +8.9% | $22.0B | +7.5% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | $4.79 | $4.65 | -2.9% | $20.4B | -5.0% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $3.57 | $4.08 | +14.3% | $20.3B | +10.8% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | $3.67 | $3.59 | -2.2% | $19.7B | +3.6% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | $2.02 | $2.65 | +31.2% | $17.8B | +1.0% |
| May 15, 2024 | $3.21 | $3.73 | +16.2% | $17.2B | -0.6% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | $2.43 | $2.97 | +22.2% | $16.9B | -6.9% |
| Oct 13, 2023 | $1.72 | $2.09 | +21.5% | $15.6B | +7.2% |
| Jul 13, 2023 | $0.88 | $0.50 | -43.2% | $15.3B | +0.1% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
• Personal auto: Gained 1.9 points of market share in 2025, with combined ratios below 90 in 9 of last 10 quarters. • Commercial auto: Results excellent with underwriting profitability well above industry despite nuclear verdicts and social inflation. • Property: Building on last year's profitability, investing for risk selection, etc., and slowly increasing appetite for growth on own paper. • New business: Increased media spend in Q1 2026, top of funnel metrics robust, price competitiveness strong. • Renewals: Actively retaining customers, saw lift in Florida trailing three policy life expectancy. • Commercial lines: Competitive environment, increasing media spend, looking to reduce rates in some states and segments, well positioned for growth with next gen product models.
Guidance
• Uncertainty in macro environment, including higher fuel prices and their impact on frequency and severity. • Monitoring fuel prices closely and incorporating into pricing. • Focus on growing as quickly as possible at target profit margins. • Continued investment in business, leveraging scale, analytics, and segmentation towards being number one destination for insurance and financial needs.
Segment performance
In personal auto, gained 1.9 points of market share in 2025, moving to 18.6% share, with personal auto combined ratios below 90 in 9 of the last 10 quarters. Commercial auto results continue to be excellent with underwriting profitability well in excess of the industry despite industry headwinds. In property, building on last year's exceptional profitability while investing to increase availability and grow on own paper.
Risks & headwinds
• World events creating uncertainty in global macroeconomic environment. • Higher fuel prices with unknown impact on lost costs and severity. • Competitive environment affecting margins and growth. • Regulatory and capital management considerations. • Uncertainty around the impact of autonomous vehicles on TNC business.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Unpacked personal auto industry profitability and competitive environment, asked about where it's heading for industry and Progressive.
A: Don't know how long soft market will last, competition intense, Progressive focused on growing at or below 96%, margins possibly compressing.
Q: Follow-up on personal auto-severity, specifically collision.
A: Severity about 3% overall, frequency flat, factors like parts prices and labor costs affecting, hard to predict future.
Q: On AI disintermediation on brokers, why commercial line business mostly through independent agents and if it can grow.
A: Commercial lines product more complicated, takes time to grow direct, but think can grow in both channels.
Q: On rent and premium per policy in personal auto, drivers and trends.
A: Dependent on pricing actions, mix change, will go state by state, channel by channel.
Q: On policies in force relative to seasonal factors and growth views.
A: Competition and shopping happening, will continue to invest, saw signs of older and longer tenured shoppers shopping.
Q: On productivity gains from technologies.
A: Several generative AI solutions in production, delivering meaningful benefits, aim to reduce non-acquisition expense ratio.
Q: On capital management, why special dividend vs buyback.
A: Uses for capital include reinvestment, share repurchase, corporate development, investment risk, will look at share valuation.
Q: On premiums to surplus ratio.
A: Got approval to move to 3.5 to 1 in some subsidiaries, aspiration to continue moving up with regulators to optimize, fare well on RBCs.
Q: On advertising in competitive environment, types of attractive advertising and why Progressive uniquely able.
A: Advertise if cost for sale under target, in-house media team, well-defined brand.
Q: On declining premium per policy in agency segment and addressing imbalance.
A: Growing PIFs across segments, focusing on Robinson's and Wright's, $40 - $50 billion top line opportunity, will spend time on it in August.
Q: On cost per sale and Robinson customers.
A: Cost per sale under target, long tenured shoppers shopping is encouraging, competitive in Robinson segment.
Q: On autonomous vehicles and TNC business growth.
A: Watching AVs closely, TNC market has seasonality, diversified commercial lines to be prepared