The Progressive Corporation
- Open
- 222.92
- Day high
- 225.45
- Day low
- 221.47
- Prev close
- 221.38
- Volume
- 221K
- Mkt cap
- $130.4B
- P/E (TTM)
- 11.2
- EPS (TTM)
- $19.98
- P/B
- —
- P/S
- 1.4
- Yield
- 6.19%
- Per share
- $13.90
- ▼Insiders net selling -$26.1M over the last 3 months (0 open-market buys, 13 sales)
- 🏛Institutions mixed (13F)
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a Financial Services company listed on NYSE. The stock is down 10% over the past year. Over the trailing 3 months, insiders filed 0 open-market buys and 13 sales (SEC Form 4). Drillr has 2 published research articles covering PGR.
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) financials & analyst ratings
Fundamentals (TTM)
Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
Source: exchange market data + company filings. Figures are trailing-twelve-month or as most recently reported. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
PGR earnings date, history & EPS estimates
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | $4.67 | $4.64 | -0.6% | $21.1B | +7.1% |
| May 6, 2026 | $4.87 | $4.96 | +1.8% | $23.6B | +3.1% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $4.46 | $4.67 | +4.6% | $15.0B | -26.8% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | $5.00 | $4.05 | -19.0% | $22.5B | +2.7% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | $4.48 | $4.88 | +9.0% | $22.0B | +7.3% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | $4.86 | $4.65 | -4.4% | $20.4B | -4.8% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $3.66 | $4.08 | +11.4% | $20.3B | +10.1% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | $3.75 | $3.59 | -4.2% | $19.7B | +3.7% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | $2.00 | $2.65 | +32.2% | $17.8B | +0.6% |
| May 15, 2024 | $3.21 | $3.73 | +16.2% | $17.2B | -0.7% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | $2.42 | $2.97 | +22.7% | $16.9B | -6.4% |
| Oct 13, 2023 | $1.72 | $2.09 | +21.5% | $15.6B | +7.1% |
PGR insider trading activity (SEC Form 4)
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | Griffith Susan Patriciadirector, officer: President and CEO | Sell | 37,338 | $219.50 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Broz Stevenofficer: Chief Information Officer | Sell | 1,225 | $219.40 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Niederst Lori Aofficer: Chief Personal Lines Officer | Sell | 7,339 | $209.29 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Quigg Andrew Jofficer: VP and Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 3,499 | $220.00 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Callahan Patrick Kofficer: Personal Lines President | Tax | 12,578 | $211.90 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Niederst Lori Aofficer: Chief Personal Lines Officer | Grant | 13,152 | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | WITALEC DANIEL Jofficer: Chief Strategy Officer | Tax | 706 | $211.90 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bailo Karenofficer: Commercial Lines President | Grant | 15,030 | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bailo Karenofficer: Commercial Lines President | Tax | 6,578 | $211.90 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Murphy John Joofficer: Claims President | Tax | 6,404 | $211.90 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Griffith Susan Patriciadirector, officer: President and CEO | Grant | 133,595 | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Murphy John Joofficer: Claims President | Sell | 8,124 | $212.70 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Callahan Patrick Kofficer: Personal Lines President | Grant | 29,852 | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Quigg Andrew Jofficer: VP and Chief Financial Officer | Tax | 5,526 | $211.90 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Murphy John Joofficer: Claims President | Grant | 14,529 | — |
Source: PGR SEC Form 4 filings, latest Sep 2, 2026. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
See the full PGR insider & 13F page →PGR research & analysis
[PGR] Progressive Thesis 2026: Auto Insurance Market Share Gains + Combined Ratio Recovery Drive Premium Compounding
Progressive Corporation FY2025 net premiums written ~$78B (+22-25% YoY exceptional growth) with combined ratio recovered to 91.5% (vs FY2022 trough 96% during pricing-to-claim-cost lag). Adj. EPS ~$19.00 (vs $3.30 FY2022). US auto insurance market share grew from 13-14% FY2022 to 17-19% FY2025 (4-6pp gain) on competitive disruption among GEICO + Allstate + State Farm during pricing cycle. Personal Auto NPW grew $40B FY2022 → $62B FY2025 (~55% over 3 years); average premium per policy $1,400 → $1,950 (~39% increase). Commercial Lines #1 US auto insurer. Snapshot telematics multi-decade analytical underwriting moat. CEO Susan Patricia Griffith since 2016. FY2026 thesis: market share gains continuation + combined ratio sustained 90-92% + commercial + property scaling drive adj. EPS toward $22-25 by FY2027; key risks: peer auto insurer recovery, claim cost re-acceleration, regulatory pricing constraints.
Treasury Yield Volatility Surges — JPM and PGR Climb as NVDA and REITs Take the Hit
April 10, 2026 Treasury yields snapshot signals volatility surge, favoring banks/insurers like PGR, JPM, BAC via NII/margins while pressuring REITs (PLD, EQIX) and NVDA on costs/valuations. PGR tops conviction ranks for pristine balance sheet and yield leverage.
JPMBACPLD
The Progressive Corporation company profile
Overview
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) is one of the largest property and casualty insurance companies in the United States, founded in 1937 and headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio. Originally established as a small auto insurance company, Progressive has grown over its 87-year history to become a major player in the insurance industry through innovation in pricing, technology, and customer service. The company went public in 1980 and has since evolved into a comprehensive insurance provider offering auto, property, and commercial insurance products across multiple distribution channels.
Business
Progressive operates in the property and casualty insurance industry, which involves providing financial protection against losses from accidents, natural disasters, and other covered events. The company's business is organized into three main segments: Personal Lines (approximately 75% of revenue): This segment primarily writes personal auto insurance, which covers individual drivers' vehicles against collision, comprehensive damage, and liability claims. Personal auto insurance is mandatory in most states and covers damages to other people's property and medical expenses when the policyholder causes an accident, as well as damage to the policyholder's own vehicle. The segment also includes special lines products such as insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, recreational vehicles (RVs), watercraft, and snowmobiles. Commercial Lines (approximately 20% of revenue): This division provides insurance for business vehicles and operations, including coverage for small business fleets, long-haul trucking operations, and specialized commercial vehicles like tow trucks and dump trucks. Commercial auto insurance typically involves higher coverage limits and more complex risk assessment than personal auto insurance due to the commercial nature of vehicle use and higher potential liability exposure. Property (approximately 5% of revenue): The newest and fastest-growing segment offers homeowners, renters, and flood insurance. Homeowners insurance protects against property damage from fire, theft, weather events, and other covered perils, while also providing liability coverage for accidents that occur on the property. The company has been strategically focusing on "bundling" property insurance with auto coverage to create more comprehensive customer relationships and improve retention rates. Progressive also provides reinsurance services and acts as an agent for other insurance products like workers' compensation. The company sells its products through both independent insurance agents and directly to consumers via its website, mobile app, and phone channels.
Revenue model
Progressive generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums collected from policyholders in exchange for coverage. The company's business model revolves around collecting premiums upfront and paying out claims over time, with profitability depending on keeping the combined ratio (claims costs plus expenses divided by premiums) below 100%. Progressive targets a combined ratio of 96%, meaning it aims to pay out 96 cents in claims and expenses for every dollar of premium collected. The company's customers are individual consumers for personal auto and property insurance, and small to medium-sized businesses for commercial lines. Progressive has built a reputation for serving higher-risk drivers who may have difficulty obtaining coverage elsewhere, allowing it to charge higher premiums for this market segment. Several factors influence Progressive's margins and profitability. Positive factors include the company's sophisticated data analytics and telematics technology (like its Snapshot program) that enable more accurate risk pricing, its dual distribution model that provides flexibility in customer acquisition costs, and its focus on operational efficiency through automation and AI. The company's strong brand recognition and customer service capabilities also support premium pricing. Negative factors include rising vehicle repair costs due to increasingly complex automotive technology, social inflation that drives up liability settlements, severe weather events that impact property insurance claims, and competitive pricing pressure in the auto insurance market. Economic factors like inflation, interest rates (which affect investment income), and unemployment levels also significantly impact both claim frequencies and the company's investment portfolio returns. Progressive's investment income from its float (premiums collected but not yet paid out in claims) provides an additional revenue stream, though the company maintains a conservative investment approach focused primarily on fixed-income securities.
Competitive moat
Progressive possesses a moderate to strong competitive moat built on several key advantages. The company's primary moat stems from its data and analytics capabilities, accumulated over decades of insuring higher-risk drivers and pioneering usage-based insurance through its Snapshot telematics program. This vast dataset enables more accurate risk assessment and pricing than competitors, creating a sustainable competitive advantage in underwriting. The company's dual distribution model - selling both directly to consumers and through independent agents - provides significant flexibility and market reach that many competitors cannot match. This approach allows Progressive to optimize customer acquisition costs and serve different customer preferences effectively. Progressive's brand strength and operational efficiency create additional defensive characteristics. The company has built strong brand recognition through consistent marketing and has achieved high levels of operational efficiency through technology investments, automation, and AI implementation across claims processing and customer service. However, the insurance industry faces inherent challenges to moat sustainability. Regulatory constraints limit pricing flexibility, as rate changes must be approved by state insurance commissioners. The industry is also subject to commodity-like competitive dynamics, where customers often shop primarily on price, potentially eroding loyalty and pricing power. Emerging threats include potential disruption from technology companies entering insurance, autonomous vehicle technology that could dramatically reduce accident frequency, and climate change impacts that may make certain geographic markets uninsurable. Additionally, new competitors with advanced analytics capabilities could challenge Progressive's data advantage over time. Despite these challenges, Progressive's combination of data analytics expertise, operational efficiency, and distribution flexibility provides a reasonably durable competitive position in the property and casualty insurance market.
Risks & safety
Progressive demonstrates a strong margin of safety with solid financial fundamentals and conservative capital management. • Liquidity and Solvency: Minimal cash burn risk with strong operating cash flow generation of $5.1 billion in Q1 2025. Low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.24, indicating conservative capital structure. Strong regulatory capital position supporting growth initiatives. • Valuation Metrics: Trading at P/E ratio of 16.2x and EV/EBITDA of 12.8x, representing reasonable valuations for a profitable, growing insurance company. Price-to-book ratio of 5.7x reflects premium valuation but justified by strong ROE of 8.9%. • Profitability Consistency: Maintaining combined ratios well below 96% target (86% for personal auto in Q1 2025), demonstrating disciplined underwriting. Strong free cash flow generation of $5.1 billion provides substantial financial flexibility. • Other Considerations: Conservative investment portfolio allocation reduces market risk. Diversified revenue streams across personal auto, commercial, and property lines. However, exposure to catastrophic weather events and regulatory changes in key markets like Florida present ongoing risks.
Recent development
Over the past few years, Progressive has executed several key strategic initiatives focused on profitable growth and technological advancement. The company has significantly expanded its property insurance business, particularly targeting the growing renters insurance market and focusing on bundled products that combine auto and property coverage. This strategy has helped improve customer retention and lifetime value while diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional auto insurance. Progressive has made substantial investments in technology and artificial intelligence, deploying over 100 AI and machine learning models across operations including claims processing, customer service, and risk assessment. The company has enhanced its telematics capabilities through the Snapshot program, expanding usage-based insurance offerings and developing continuous monitoring capabilities that provide more accurate risk pricing. The company has pursued a strategic de-risking of its property portfolio, particularly in catastrophe-prone states like Florida, where it exited approximately 115,000 homes and implemented mandatory wind and hail deductibles. This approach reflects a disciplined focus on maintaining profitability over market share in volatile segments. Progressive has also strengthened its dual distribution strategy, investing heavily in direct-to-consumer digital channels while maintaining strong relationships with independent agents. The company has increased its media spending significantly when customer acquisition remains efficient, demonstrating flexibility in marketing investment based on market conditions. Recent quarters have shown strong execution of these strategies, with record new application volumes, improved combined ratios across segments, and successful expansion in less volatile geographic markets for property insurance.
PGR company profile · for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Track PGR with Drillr
SEC filings, earnings calls, insider activity, alt-data signals — all queryable through Drillr's AI terminal and MCP API.
Try Drillr for free