OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
Price as of Jul 20, 2026
OLLI analysis
Published Drillr research and company-specific analysis. Existing articles keep their current URLs and citation behavior.
Research
Ollie's Bargain Outlet reached 559 stores at the end of FY2024 and has since accelerated its expansion to 645 locations by Q3 FY2025, driving 17-19% quarterly revenue growth with stable margins. The company's low-cost unit economics — $1M investment per store with $4M first-year sales and a two-year payback — support a long runway toward its 1,300+ store target.
Research
TJX leads the off-price retail group with 12% operating margins and 54% ROE, while Ollie's offers the best value at 23x forward P/E with double-digit revenue growth. Five Below commands the richest valuation despite the weakest earnings track record, making it the least attractive risk/reward in the group.
Research
Burlington and Ollie's carry significantly higher gross margins (41.9% and 40.3%) than TJX and Ross (31.1% and 27.9%), but the larger players convert more efficiently — TJX and Ross deliver 12.0% and 11.9% operating margins respectively versus Burlington's 8.9%. Ross emerges as the quiet margin leader with a best-in-class 9.7% FCF margin, while Burlington's 21.6% EBITDA growth signals the fastest margin expansion trajectory in the group.
Research
Ollie's Bargain Outlet has the most store growth runway among off-price retailers, with ~133% unit growth potential from 559 to 1,300+ stores, the highest operating margins (11.2%), and the cleanest balance sheet (0.37x debt/equity). Five Below has ~100% remaining growth to 3,500 stores but faces margin pressure from its Five Beyond format shift, while Burlington is the most mature with ~80% unit growth left and the highest leverage.
Research
Ollie's SG&A as a percentage of sales has remained stuck at 26-28% despite growing from 431 to 645 stores over four years, with the leverage inflection likely occurring around 700-750 stores (late FY2026) when growth rates moderate, bankruptcy-acquired stores mature, and fixed-cost absorption accelerates — potentially pushing operating margins above 12% for the first time on a sustained basis.
Research
Ollie's 40.3% TTM gross margin ranks between Burlington (41.9%) and well above TJX (31.1%) and Ross (27.9%), but OLLI's quarterly margins compressed 180bps YoY in Q4 2025 while TJX expanded by 140bps. The divergence highlights OLLI's vulnerability to tightening closeout supply versus TJX's diversified sourcing model, with operating margin (10.2% vs TJX's 13.0%) further constrained by SGA deleveraging at smaller scale.
Research
Ollie's operates 645 stores across 34 states with distribution infrastructure supporting up to 750 locations, targeting 1,300+ long-term. The Deep South (backfill), Upper Midwest (Princeton DC unlock), and Mountain West (long-term frontier) represent the highest-potential whitespace regions, supported by a capital-efficient unit model (~$1M investment, ~2-year payback) and an unprecedented bankruptcy-acquisition pipeline that delivered 63 of 86 new stores in FY2025.
Research
Ollie's opened 86 stores in the first 39 weeks of FY2025 — more than double the prior-year pace — while maintaining operating margins at 10.1% and capex per store near the $1.0M target model. SG&A leverage, declining per-store pre-opening costs, and distribution capacity to 750 stores suggest unit economics are holding through the acceleration, though pre-opening expenses as a percentage of sales have doubled and will require monitoring as annual openings push higher.
