Which Off-Price Retailer Has the Most Runway: Ollie's at 559 Stores or Five Below at 1,750+?
Data as of: FY2024/FY2025 (fiscal years ending January 2025–January 2026)
The Store Count Gap Is Misleading
On the surface, Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) looks like the clear winner on runway. With roughly 559 stores against a long-term target of 1,300+, Ollie's has the potential to more than double its footprint — roughly 133% unit growth ahead. Five Below (FIVE), already at 1,750+ locations en route to a 3,500-store target, has ~100% growth remaining. Burlington (BURL), the largest of the three with over 1,000 stores and a 2,000-store ambition, sits somewhere in between at ~80% unit growth potential.
But store count alone doesn't determine which stock offers the most runway. Margins, capital intensity, same-store productivity, and valuation all matter.
Financial Comparison
Revenue & Growth
| Metric | OLLI (FY2024) | FIVE (FY2024) | BURL (FY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Revenue | $2.27B | $3.88B | $11.57B |
| Revenue Growth (TTM) | 12.6% | 15.8% | 8.8% |
| Q3 YoY Revenue Growth | +18.6% | +23.1% | +7.2% |
| 3-Year Revenue CAGR | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.0% |
| 5-Year Revenue CAGR | 10.0% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
Note: BURL's fiscal year 2025 ends January 2026; OLLI and FIVE fiscal year 2024 ends January 2025.
Five Below leads on top-line growth, posting 23.1% Q3 revenue growth year-over-year, fueled by aggressive unit expansion and improving same-store trends. Ollie's 18.6% Q3 growth is impressive for a smaller operator and reflects both new store openings and strong comparable sales. Burlington, the most mature of the three, is growing revenue at a steady but slower clip.
Profitability
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE | BURL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 40.3% | 35.6% | 41.9% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Net Margin (TTM) | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% |
| ROE (TTM) | 12.2% | 15.8% | 33.8% |
| ROIC (TTM) | 11.3% | 9.9% | 13.2% |
Ollie's stands apart on profitability. Its 40.3% gross margin and 11.2% operating margin both lead the group, a function of its closeout-focused buying model where it purchases merchandise at 10–20 cents on the dollar. Five Below's margins have been under pressure — operating margin dipped below 1% in Q3 FY2024 before recovering to 4.2% in Q3 FY2025, reflecting challenges from its shift to the "Five Beyond" higher-price-point format and cost inflation. Burlington's ROE is the highest at 33.8%, but that's largely driven by its leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity of 3.3x versus 0.4x for Ollie's).
Balance Sheet & Capital Efficiency
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE | BURL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Debt | $671M | $2.01B | $6.01B |
| Cash | $145M | $351M | $1.23B |
| Debt/Equity | 0.37x | 1.03x | 3.32x |
| Current Ratio | 2.50x | 1.60x | 1.23x |
| FY Free Cash Flow | $107M | $107M | $172M |
Ollie's balance sheet is the cleanest by far. With debt-to-equity of just 0.37x and a current ratio of 2.5x, the company has substantial financial flexibility to fund store growth without dilution or excessive leverage. Five Below carries moderate debt, while Burlington's $6 billion debt load — largely from lease obligations and its leveraged history — constrains flexibility despite strong operating cash flow.
The Real Runway Math
Runway isn't just about how many stores you can open — it's about the economics of each incremental store.
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE | BURL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approx. Store Count | ~559 | ~1,750+ | ~1,050+ |
| Long-Term Target | 1,300+ | 3,500 | 2,000 |
| Remaining Unit Growth | ~133% | ~100% | ~80% |
| Revenue per Store (est.) | ~$4.1M | ~$2.2M | ~$10.5M |
| FY Capex | $121M | $324M | $1.06B |
| Capex per New Store (est.) | ~$1.5M | ~$2.0M | ~$5M+ |
Ollie's wins on two critical dimensions: (1) the highest percentage of unit growth remaining, and (2) the lowest capital intensity per new store. Its closeout model requires smaller format stores (typically 25,000–35,000 sq ft) in secondary locations with cheaper rents. Five Below's stores are smaller (~8,000 sq ft) but the sheer volume of openings (~200/year) demands significant capital, and the company's shift to "Five Beyond" requires remodeling existing stores.
Valuation
| Metric | OLLI | FIVE | BURL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $6.3B | $12.1B | $19.1B |
| P/E (TTM) | 28.3x | 39.0x | 31.8x |
| P/E (Forward) | 23.1x | 31.5x | 27.3x |
| EV/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x | 2.1x |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.7x | 23.3x | 18.7x |
| 1-Year Price Return | +1.0% | +196.7% | +24.9% |
Five Below trades at the richest valuation — 39x trailing earnings — after a massive 197% rally off its 2024 lows. Ollie's is the most reasonably priced on a forward P/E basis at 23.1x, while Burlington offers the best value on EV/EBITDA at 18.7x.
Key Takeaways
-
Ollie's has the most unit growth runway at 133% remaining store potential, with the lowest capital intensity and cleanest balance sheet to fund it. Its closeout model also produces the highest operating margins in the group.
-
Five Below has scale but margin risk. The pivot to "Five Beyond" (items $6–$25) is necessary to sustain growth but has pressured margins. Operating income swung to near-zero in Q3 FY2024 before recovering — execution risk remains elevated.
-
Burlington is the steady compounder. The largest and most mature, BURL offers the lowest EV/EBITDA but carries significant leverage and has the least percentage unit growth remaining.
Investment Implications
Most runway (unit growth + margin + balance sheet): OLLI — the combination of 133% remaining store growth, 11%+ operating margins, and minimal debt makes it the cleanest growth story.
Highest risk/reward: FIVE — if management executes the Five Beyond transition and maintains 200+ store openings per year, the stock has significant upside from current levels. But margin compression in recent quarters is a warning sign.
Best value today: BURL at 18.7x EV/EBITDA, though the leveraged balance sheet limits upside in a downturn.
What to Watch
- OLLI: New store productivity trends and whether management accelerates openings beyond ~50/year
- FIVE: Gross margin trajectory as Five Beyond mix increases; Q4 holiday quarter execution
- BURL: Debt reduction progress and whether margin recovery can sustain into FY2026
Sources: Company 10-K/10-Q filings (OLLI FY2024, FIVE FY2024, BURL FY2025), company investor presentations, FactSet consensus estimates.