Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Earnings
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on July 29, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.58. HOG has beaten EPS estimates in 8 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -13.9% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | $0.34 | $0.22 | -35.3% | $1.1B | +4.5% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.99 | $0.88 | -11.1% | $1.3B | +24.6% |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.80 | $1.07 | +33.8% | $1.3B | +12.5% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | $-0.65 | $-0.93 | -43.1% | $688M | -49.9% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.79 | $0.91 | +15.2% | $1.2B | +148.5% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | $1.40 | $1.63 | +16.4% | $1.6B | +26.2% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | $1.51 | $1.72 | +13.9% | $1.7B | +29.1% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | $0.04 | $0.18 | +374.7% | $1.1B | +19.4% |
| Oct 26, 2023 | $1.36 | $1.38 | +1.5% | $1.5B | +14.3% |
| Jul 27, 2023 | $1.25 | $1.22 | -2.4% | $1.4B | +12.0% |
| Apr 27, 2023 | $1.39 | $2.04 | +46.8% | $1.8B | +31.7% |
| Feb 2, 2023 | $0.06 | $0.28 | +366.7% | $1.1B | +24.5% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 5, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
• Retail sales: North America up 14% vs prior year, global up 8%. Reduced global inventory 22% year-over-year. Reopened Juneau Avenue headquarters. Positive reception to new marketing platform RIDE. • HDMC: North American retail sales up 14%, EMEA down 3%, Asia Pacific down 9%, Latin America up 21%. Dealer inventory improved. • HDFS: Revenue down 54% but operating income $22M. • LiveWire: Revenue up 87%, focus on S4 honcho launch, network expansion, cost savings, etc. • Strategy: Back to the Bricks plan to reignite brand enthusiasm, focus on leveraging competitive advantages, win-win with dealers, recapture share, refocus brand around community, restore portfolio to be more rider-centric, strengthen dealer profitability, bring back Sportster in 2027, introduce Sprint in back half of 2026, rebuild parts and accessories leadership, refine promotions, launch Ride marketing platform.
Guidance
• Reaffirms 2026 guidance: HDMC retail and wholesale units 130,000 - 135,000. Expect shipments higher in Q2, flat in Q3, up in Q4. HDMC operating income positive $10M to loss $40M. HDFS operating income $45M - $60M. LiveWire operating loss $70M - $80M. • Tariffs: 2026 tariff cost range $75M - $90M, expected to decrease consecutively. • Medium term: Expect mid-single digit retail unit growth, mid-single digit growth in P&A and A&L, gross margins approaching 30%, operating expenses as % of sales <20%, 10-12% EBITDA margin. • HDFS: Target $125 - $150M operating income by 2029.
Segment performance
Consolidated revenue in Q1 2026 was down 12%, driven primarily by HDFS revenue down 54% due to the new capital light model. HDMC retail sales: North America new motorcycle retail sales up 14% (U.S. up 16%, Canada down 8%), global retail sales up 8%. HDMC revenue in Q1 was $1.1 billion, down 2%, with motorcycles at $836M, DNA plus apparel at $200M, licensing and other at $20M. HDMC gross profit 25.3% vs 29.1% prior year. HDFS Q1 revenue $112M, down 54%, operating income $22M. LiveWire Q1 revenue up 87%, operating loss $18M.
Risks & headwinds
• Consumer discretionary landscape uneven. • Pricing concerns due to inflation, interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty. • Tariff regulatory environment evolution with potential impacts. • Global geopolitical uncertainty affecting business. • Impact of HDFS transaction and changes in business model. • Performance of LiveWire segment
Analyst Q&A
Q: What is the medium term?
A: Three to five years.
Q: On tariffs, how is it expected?
A: 2026 tariff midpoint $83M, first quarter had $45M, balance of year $38M, expected to decrease consecutively.
Q: How much retail growth from Sportster and Sprint?
A: Significant portion of growth expected from them, also from blank canvas motorcycles and distributed accessible portfolio.
Q: On HDFS receivables and revenue breakdown?
A: HDFS sold back book, continues to service loans, fee income from servicing, card products, etc.
Q: On dealer profitability and rebate program?
A: Modest headwind from rebate program change, predictability for dealers is key.
Q: On LiveWire and demand influence?
A: LiveWire team focused, Harley-Davidson focused on back-to-the-bricks plan, LiveWire team working on dealer relationship approach.
Q: On dealer network size?
A: Committed to healthy network, not precious about size but about dealers enthusiastic about brand and serving riders well.
Q: On cost reduction and gross margin trends?
A: Teams identified cost reduction areas, pricing and mix relatively stable in remainder of year