Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) Earnings
Gevo, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on August 10, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $-0.02. GEVO has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -22.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | $-0.02 | $-0.05 | -150.0% | $43M | -4.3% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | $-0.03 | $-0.02 | +32.1% | $45M | +3.8% |
| Mar 27, 2025 | $-0.11 | $-0.09 | +18.2% | $6M | +48.1% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $-0.10 | $-0.09 | +10.0% | $2M | -47.9% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | $-0.09 | $-0.09 | +0.0% | $5M | +20.1% |
| May 2, 2024 | $-0.06 | $-0.08 | -33.3% | $4M | -8.9% |
| Mar 7, 2024 | $-0.05 | $-0.08 | -60.0% | $4M | -1.0% |
| Nov 13, 2023 | $-0.06 | $-0.07 | -16.7% | $5M | +9.6% |
| Aug 10, 2023 | $-0.06 | $-0.06 | +0.0% | $4M | +5.9% |
| Mar 9, 2023 | $-0.06 | $-0.11 | -83.3% | $545000 | -71.6% |
| Feb 24, 2022 | $-0.07 | $-0.08 | -14.3% | $54000 | -91.4% |
| Aug 12, 2021 | $-0.05 | $-0.09 | -80.0% | $346000 | +34.7% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 7, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Paul Bloom stated the quarter was about advancing execution and strengthening the foundation for scale. The team made measurable progress on the ATJ30 project, de-bottlenecking and expansion of the GEVO North Dakota plant. A corporate-wide EBITDA Challenge was launched. - Regarding the alcohol to jet project (Project North Star), the decision was made to withdraw from the DOE financing process, received non-binding indications of interest from multiple lenders, and approximately half of the financeable long-term contracts for synthetic aviation fuel and carbon attributes for the project were secured. - Announced intent to expand the capacity of GEVO North Dakota by up to 75 million gallons per year, partnering with Aura Energy. Ongoing de-bottlenecking and site improvements at GEVO North Dakota, expected to expand adjusted EBITDA in the segment by 10 to 15%. - Greg Hanselman mentioned on operations: GEVO RNG production increased 15% compared to the same quarter last year; the GEVO North Dakota plant had better-than-expected performance; ongoing bottlenecking and asset reliability projects were in progress.
Guidance
Expect approximately $30 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Aim to achieve $40 million of adjusted EBITDA on an annualized run rate basis from existing operations by the end of the year. Project North Star is expected to deliver approximately $150 million of adjusted EBITDA per year once fully commissioned and online. Expansion of GEVO North Dakota is expected to take approximately 18 to 24 months following final investment decision. Reaffirm targets despite quarter-to-quarter variability in adjusted EBITDA, with expectation of growth from expected new low-carbon fuel pathways approvals.
Segment performance
In the first quarter of 2026, revenue was $43 million compared to $29 million in Q1 last year. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $9 million compared to a loss of $15 million in Q1 last year. The carbon business delivered strong returns from low-carbon ethanol compliance markets, with approximately 57% of carbon attributes sold to attached fuel in Q1. The GEVO North Dakota plant delivered 18 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol, along with 16,000 tons of dry distiller grains, 51,000 tons of modified distiller grains, and 5 million pounds of corn oil coproducts. For 2026, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $30 million, with a target of achieving $40 million of adjusted EBITDA on an annualized run rate basis from existing operations by the end of the year.
Risks & headwinds
Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated. These include risks related to the timing, development, financing, and construction of projects such as the alcohol-to-jet project, expansion of the GEVO North Dakota plant, and carbon sequestration well. Uncertainties in offtake agreements and financing for projects also pose risks.
Analyst Q&A
Q: On deep bottlenecking impact on financials,
A: The impact from deep bottlenecking efforts will reflect in the financials in 2027 as the tie-ins for the expansion have been done and construction is ongoing.
Q: Funding for the expansion project,
A: A preliminary agreement with Aura Energy has been entered into for co-investment in the project, and a combination of project-level debt and other capital options will be used.
Q: Engineering on the expansion project,
A: The team is repurposing from the previous ethanol project planned for South Dakota and is already working with FluidQuip Technologies.
Q: Progress on Verity,
A: Verity has partnerships, including with Bushel and SIBO, but is waiting for 45Z ag benefits inclusion to take off.
Q: Project finance for expansion and ATJ,
A: Evaluating all options for project finance, offtakes are a major gating item for the ATJ project.
Q: EBITDA Challenge scale,
A: The EBITDA Challenge is a corporate-wide initiative to unlock new revenue growth, improve operational performance, and manage costs across the organization, with an incentive plan for employees to drive EBITDA beyond the target.
Q: Ethanol netbacks improvement,
A: Opportunities exist from E15 demand growth, export markets, and new low-carbon fuel standards.
Q: ATJ project financing capex coverage and cost,
A: Target leverage ratio of around 60% of the total project cost for ATJ 30, and private capital providers' cost is expected to be closer to market rate compared to DOE funding