Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Earnings
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is expected to report next earnings on August 6, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.56. AGO has beaten EPS estimates in 6 of its last 11 reported quarters (average surprise +22.3% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | $1.50 | $2.50 | +66.7% | $261M | +25.1% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $1.54 | $2.42 | +57.1% | $199M | +1.1% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $1.57 | $1.01 | -35.7% | $199M | +1.1% |
| May 8, 2025 | $3.15 | $3.18 | +1.0% | $345M | +48.9% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $1.34 | $1.27 | -5.2% | $152M | -23.8% |
| Feb 27, 2024 | $1.18 | $5.75 | +387.3% | $231M | +169.6% |
| Feb 28, 2023 | $0.89 | $0.22 | -75.3% | $305M | +72.4% |
| Aug 3, 2022 | $0.89 | $0.46 | -48.3% | $77M | -55.7% |
| May 5, 2022 | $0.83 | $1.34 | +61.4% | $280M | +56.2% |
| Feb 24, 2022 | $0.79 | $3.88 | +391.1% | $184M | -3.4% |
| Nov 4, 2021 | — | $0.45 | — | $191M | +7.3% |
| Aug 5, 2021 | $0.76 | $1.59 | +109.2% | $175M | -10.7% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 8, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- AI Application: AI is applied across all facets of business, including credit selection, surveillance, portfolio review, secondary market activity, financial reporting, etc. A human still needs to approve, but it speeds up processes like secondary market transactions and credit report writing. - Brightline View: The company believes in its structure and credit underwriting, sees the capital stack and valuation as positive, and views Brightline not as a loss situation yet considering various scenarios. - Capital Management: Capital management is a critical strategic objective. They look at balancing capital for growth opportunities like the life business which may need 50 - 150 million capital for growth over 18 months, and consider mix of capital including soft and hard capital, and the balance sheet in relation to rating agencies and regulatory requirements. - Large Deals: The firm is focused on large deals as they drive higher returns, with many large deals in the first quarter over $100 million apart.
Guidance
- Expect a strong year in public finance apples to apples based on volume and large deals in the pipeline. - For the life business, expect to need between 50 and 150 million of capital to exercise its growth program over the next 18 months. - Aim to balance capital management for shareholder buybacks, business growth, and meeting regulatory and rating agency requirements.
Segment performance
In public finance, the firm expects a strong year. There are more triple B issuance, infrastructure transactions, and healthcare transactions giving significant premiums. Volume is a growth opportunity with large deals in the pipeline, though large deals have their own closing timelines affecting quarterly numbers. Revenue contribution % not explicitly stated in absolute terms but related to different business segments' activities.
Risks & headwinds
- Brightline has a going concern audit opinion and expiring interest payment grace period, with considerations of rating agencies' views and regulatory aspects. - Market volatility may bring uncertainties, though the firm hasn't seen panic due to well-written portfolio.
Analyst Q&A
Q: With about 600 billion of projected muni supply in 26 and if penetration rates hold, what is your target for 2026 new issue insured PAR and is the pricing environment supportive to translate into higher growth premiums?
A: If the market issue ends up, projected penetration would be inconsistent due to credit conditions, but volume gives growth opportunity, with large deals in pipeline, expecting strong year apples to apples in public finance and mirroring return hurdles for profitability.
Q: And how are you incorporating AI into your processes? And where do you see the biggest opportunity for it to improve your, you know, credit selection?
A: AI represents great opportunity in repetitive functions like credit by credit, surveillance, portfolio review. Applied in every facet of business, with activity in secondary market utilizing AI, and credit reports being done using AI but with human review.
Q: For investors that have become accustomed to AGO buying back roughly $500 million in stock in 10 of the last 12 years, was the slower pace of buybacks you've made and the message of a slowdown in buybacks for the next three months Does that mean to signal just a temporary slowdown here, or is this a true change in the way you guys think about capital distribution?
A: Capital management is critical, looking at growth opportunities like life business needing capital, protecting ratings, and will be aggressive in capital management if excess capital continues to build, still considering buybacks and protecting stock.
Q: For investors that have become accustomed to AGO buying back roughly $500 million in stock in 10 of the last 12 years, was the slower pace of buybacks you've made and the message of a slowdown in buybacks for the next three months Does that mean to signal just a temporary slowdown here, or is this a true change in the way you guys think about capital distribution?
A: Capital management is critical, looking at growth opportunities like life business needing capital, protecting ratings, and will be aggressive in capital management if excess capital continues to build, still considering buybacks and protecting stock.
Q: And then I think we've talked about this in the past, but I just want to confirm that when you think about your sort of first order or second order exposure to the Middle East crisis, I assume you think it's pretty minimal. But perhaps, you know, thinking of second order impacts around just the level of heightened risk globally. Have you guys seen an uptick in terms of like the pipeline or demand for sort of risk mitigation strategies from AGO, specifically over the past few months that you can pinpoint to the crisis in the Middle East?
A: Haven't seen uptick in demand for risk mitigation strategies related to Middle East crisis, portfolio is well written and protected from credit point of view, seeing increase in structural finance and international infrastructure due to banks' regulatory needs.
Q: Looking at the investment portfolio and excluding the alternative investments, what was your new money yield in the quarter relative to the effective yield on the portfolio?
A: New money yield is probably a little north of 4%, maybe 4.4, with possible 10 - 15 basis points variance.
Q: Dominic, I know you don't put hard numbers on this, but can you talk about how you think about the level of excess capital in the company or alternatively the ROE drag from the excess capital in the company? Last time I heard a number, it was north of $2 billion. And so outside looking in, it seems like you have enough money for all of the above to keep an aggressive buyback plan in place as well as consider new alternatives. Can you maybe flush that out a little bit more? And then also, you know, as you pointed out, you bought back over 80% of the company over the last 12 years. How much is the flow to the stock coming into as a factor with your buyback appetite going forward?
A: Capital is predominantly equity capital. Need to examine mix of capital for growth opportunities. Soft capital facilities could be used to manage hard equity capital for buybacks and growth. Flow to stock not a problem to date, but will look at capital mix including soft facilities for future growth and meeting requirements.
Q: The magic number has been $500 million for buyback. When you think about the business plans for this year, do you anticipate deploying $500-plus million into non-FG, whether it be buyback or annuity REIT or anything like that? I'm just curious in terms of the excess capital deployment. where it's going changes, but your target amounts don't?
A: The delta of capital running off and new business can vary, and the life business may need 50 - 100 million capital for growth over next two years. Excess capital deployment depends on portfolio run-off, new business, and growth needs like in the life business.