AGO Stock: Insider Activity, Filings & Research

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) — Drillr’s hub for AGO insider activity, SEC filings, earnings signals and AI research. Over the trailing 3 months, AGO insiders filed 0 open-market buys and 6 sales (SEC Form 4).

Sentiment

0/100

Buys (3m)

Sells (3m)

Net (3m)

-$18.0M

Insider trades by month Buys Sells

May

Aug

Sep

Mar

May

Jun

Context3-month price -16.4%Institutions mixed (13F)

Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Price
Jun 1, 2026	Radtke Lorindirector	Sell	1,047	$74.32
May 12, 2026	Bailenson Robertofficer: Chief Operating Officer	Sell	17,647	$78.24
May 12, 2026	Bailenson Robertofficer: Chief Operating Officer	Sell	32,353	$78.82
May 4, 2026	Shea Courtney C.director	Tax	365	$81.90
May 4, 2026	Batten Markdirector	Tax	961	$81.90
May 4, 2026	JONES THOMAS Wdirector	Tax	365	$81.90
May 4, 2026	Radtke Lorindirector	Tax	365	$81.90
May 4, 2026	JONES THOMAS Wdirector	Grant	1,756	—
May 4, 2026	Ursano Antonio Jr.director	Tax	365	$81.90
May 4, 2026	Shea Courtney C.director	Grant	1,756	—
May 4, 2026	Rosenblum Benjamin G.officer: CFO	Tax	637	$80.86
May 4, 2026	Horn Hollyofficer: Chief Surveillance Officer	Grant	2,755	—
May 4, 2026	Howard Bonnie L.director	Grant	1,756	—
May 4, 2026	FREDERICO DOMINICdirector, officer: President/CEO/Deputy Chairman	Grant	33,980	—
May 4, 2026	Kreczko Alan Jdirector	Tax	626	$81.90

Source: AGO SEC Form 4 filings, latest Jun 1, 2026. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Overview

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) is a Bermuda-based financial services company that has been providing credit protection products for over four decades. Founded in 2003 as a public entity and conducting business since the 1980s, the company operates as one of the leading providers of financial guaranty insurance in the United States and internationally. Through its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty serves as a critical intermediary in public finance and structured finance markets, helping reduce borrowing costs for municipalities, infrastructure projects, and various debt issuers while providing investment protection for bondholders.

Business

Assured Guaranty operates primarily in the financial guaranty insurance industry, which serves as a form of credit enhancement for debt securities. The company's core business revolves around insuring bonds and other debt obligations, essentially acting as a backstop that guarantees scheduled principal and interest payments if the original issuer defaults. The company operates through two main business segments. The Insurance segment represents approximately 95% of total operating income and focuses on financial guaranty insurance products. This division insures various types of debt obligations including municipal bonds issued by U.S. state and local governments, infrastructure project financing, and structured finance securities such as mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. The company also provides specialty insurance products including life insurance transactions and aircraft residual value insurance. The Asset Management segment contributes roughly 5% of operating income and provides investment advisory services. This includes managing collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), opportunity funds, and liquid strategy funds. The segment has grown significantly through strategic acquisitions, notably the Sound Point Capital Management transaction completed in recent years. Financial guaranty insurance works by having Assured Guaranty collect upfront premiums from bond issuers in exchange for guaranteeing timely payment of principal and interest to bondholders. This insurance allows lower-rated municipalities and entities to access capital markets at lower interest rates, as the insurance effectively upgrades the credit quality of their bonds to Assured Guaranty's rating level. The company maintains a diversified portfolio across U.S. public finance (approximately 65% of new business), non-U.S. public finance, and global structured finance markets.

Revenue model

Assured Guaranty generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums collected upfront when policies are written, along with ongoing investment income from its substantial investment portfolio. The company's customers are bond issuers (municipalities, infrastructure developers, structured finance vehicles) who pay premiums to obtain credit enhancement, and indirectly, investors who benefit from the credit protection. The business model centers on collecting premiums today for potential claims that may occur years or decades in the future. Present Value of Premiums (PVP) represents the discounted value of all future premium collections from a policy, which totaled over $400 million in 2024. The company also generates significant investment income from its approximately $12 billion investment portfolio, including alternative investments that have produced roughly 13% annual returns. Several factors influence the company's profitability margins. Credit quality deterioration in the insured portfolio can lead to higher loss reserves and claims payments, as seen historically with Puerto Rico exposures. Interest rate environments significantly impact both new business production (higher rates can reduce municipal bond issuance) and investment income. Municipal bond market conditions affect demand for insurance - during periods of credit stress or market volatility, penetration rates for bond insurance typically increase as investors seek additional credit protection. Competition from other credit enhancement methods such as letters of credit or direct bank lending can reduce demand for bond insurance. Conversely, regulatory changes affecting banks' willingness to provide credit support, or credit market disruptions, can increase demand for traditional financial guaranty insurance. The company's ability to maintain its high credit ratings (currently AA- level) is crucial, as downgrades would significantly impair its ability to write new business and could trigger existing policy provisions.

Competitive moat

Assured Guaranty possesses a moderate to strong competitive moat built primarily on regulatory barriers, scale advantages, and reputation effects. The company operates in a highly regulated industry requiring substantial capital reserves, specialized expertise, and strong credit ratings to compete effectively. The financial guaranty insurance business has high barriers to entry due to regulatory requirements, the need for significant capital to achieve investment-grade ratings, and the specialized underwriting expertise required. The company's dominant market position provides significant advantages - with approximately 58-64% market share in municipal bond insurance, Assured Guaranty benefits from scale economies in underwriting, risk management, and distribution. Its established relationships with municipal bond underwriters, issuers, and investors create switching costs and provide preferential access to deal flow. The company's AA- credit rating is essential to its value proposition, as it allows insured bonds to achieve high investment-grade ratings. However, the moat faces several potential threats. The bond insurance industry has historically been cyclical, with periods of low penetration rates when credit spreads are tight and municipalities can access capital markets directly at attractive rates. Alternative credit enhancement methods, including bank letters of credit and direct lending, can substitute for bond insurance. The industry also faces potential disruption from changing municipal finance practices or regulatory changes that might alter the economics of bond insurance. The company's legacy exposures, particularly to Puerto Rico and UK water utilities, represent ongoing risks that could impair capital and reputation. Additionally, the concentration of the business in a relatively small number of large competitors means that competitive dynamics can shift quickly based on pricing strategies or risk appetite changes among the few remaining players in the market.

Risks & safety

Assured Guaranty demonstrates a strong margin of safety with robust capitalization and conservative financial management, though some legacy exposures create ongoing risks. **Capital and Liquidity Position:** - Shareholders' equity of approximately $5.6 billion provides substantial capital cushion - Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30, indicating conservative leverage - Holding company liquidity of $257 million in cash and investments - Strong regulatory capital ratios well above minimum requirements **Valuation Metrics:** - Price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 6-13x depending on quarter, suggesting reasonable valuation - Price-to-book ratio of 0.78-0.87x, indicating trading below book value - Adjusted book value per share of $170.12 represents significant tangible value **Risk Considerations:** - Below investment-grade exposure represents only 2.2% of total insured portfolio - Puerto Rico exposures largely resolved through recent settlements - UK water utility exposures (Thames Water, Southern Water) present ongoing uncertainty but management expects minimal losses - Strong loss reserves and conservative reserving practices provide cushion against adverse developments

Recent development

Over the past few years, Assured Guaranty has executed several strategic initiatives to strengthen its market position and operational efficiency. The company completed a significant merger of its two main U.S. insurance subsidiaries (Assured Guaranty Municipal into Assured Guaranty Inc.) in 2024, creating operational efficiencies, improved capital utilization, and a more diversified portfolio under a single regulator. The company has aggressively pursued geographic expansion, establishing new offices in Australia and Singapore while expanding operations across Continental Europe. This international expansion has contributed to growing non-U.S. public finance and structured finance business, with structured finance PVP more than doubling in recent years. Asset management transformation represents another key strategic development. The company completed the Sound Point Capital Management transaction, significantly expanding its asset management capabilities and fee-earning assets under management from $8 billion to over $16 billion. This diversification provides additional revenue streams and leverages the company's credit expertise in new markets. The company has maintained an aggressive capital return strategy, targeting $500 million in annual share repurchases while increasing dividends for 13 consecutive years. Management has repurchased approximately 11% of outstanding shares in 2024 alone, demonstrating confidence in the business model and commitment to shareholder returns. Technology and process modernization initiatives have focused on improving operational efficiency and expanding the company's ability to serve new markets and product segments. The company has also successfully resolved most of its Puerto Rico exposures through negotiated settlements, significantly reducing below-investment-grade exposure from historical highs to just 2.2% of the portfolio.

AGO company profile · for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

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