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[TXN] Texas Instruments: Q3 2026 Earnings Test for Analog Demand and a 61% Gross Margin

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Summary

Texas Instruments grew Q2 2026 revenue 23% to $5.46 billion at a 61.4% gross margin; Q3 results test whether that is end demand or customer restocking.

Texas Instruments is a US semiconductor company built around analog chips and embedded processors, which manufacturers of industrial equipment, cars, data centers and consumer electronics use to deliver power, capture signals and run control functions. According to the earnings calendar, the company will hold its call on 2026-10-27 to report results for the third quarter of 2026, ended September 30, 2026 [1]. In its most recently disclosed period, the second quarter of 2026 ended June 30, Texas Instruments reported revenue of $5.46 billion, up 23% year on year and 13% sequentially, with net income of $1.98 billion and earnings per share of $2.14 [2]; gross margin rose to 61.4% from 57.9% a year earlier, and operating margin rose to 42.3% from 35.1% [3]. On the July 22 call, management guided third-quarter revenue to $5.65 billion to $6.15 billion, earnings per share to $2.23 to $2.57 and the effective tax rate to about 13% [4]. As of September 25, the 16 analysts in Drillr's estimates table had a mean third-quarter revenue estimate of $5.916 billion and a mean earnings-per-share estimate of $2.42, against prior-year actuals of $4.742 billion and $1.48 [5].

Three things matter most in these Texas Instruments Q3 2026 earnings. The first is the nature of revenue growth: industrial rose about 30% and data center roughly doubled year on year in the second quarter [6], but management also acknowledged that the automotive inflection partly reflects restocking after customers cut inventories to unsustainable lows [7], so whether third-quarter revenue reaches at least the $5.9 billion guidance midpoint, and whether the fourth-quarter guide implies a sequential drop clearly deeper than seasonal, will show whether this growth can last. The second is the source of the gross margin gain: second-quarter gross margin was 3.4 percentage points above the first quarter's 58.0% [8], while days of inventory fell from 209 to 196 over the same period [9][10], so a third-quarter gross margin of at least 62% with inventory stabilizing would help separate higher 300mm factory loadings from the drawdown of existing stock. The third is the quality of cash flow: second-quarter operating cash flow minus capital spending was about $2.19 billion, with another $549 million of CHIPS Act incentives received in the quarter [11][12], and whether cash excluding incentives keeps covering a quarterly dividend of about $1.3 billion while the company builds cash for the roughly $7.5 billion Silicon Labs deal [13] determines whether free cash flow truly steps up after the capital spending peak.

Company Background and Business Structure

Texas Instruments treats long-term growth in free cash flow per share as its primary objective and has used a decade of capital allocation to support it. The company describes four competitive advantages: manufacturing and technology, a broad portfolio of analog and embedded processing products, the reach of its market channels, and the diversity and longevity of its products, markets and customer positions; from 2016 to 2025 it allocated $109 billion of capital, about $24 billion of it to capital expenditures, and it says it is near the end of a six-year elevated capital spending cycle [14]. On February 4, 2026, the company agreed to buy wireless IoT chipmaker Silicon Labs for $231.00 per share in cash, an enterprise value of about $7.5 billion; the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027, and Silicon Labs will not be consolidated into Texas Instruments' statements before closing [13]. Leadership is also changing: Julie Knecht became chief financial officer on August 1, 2026, and the previous chief financial officer, Rafael Lizardi, retired at the end of August [15].

Revenue is heavily concentrated in the Analog segment, while Embedded Processing is much smaller and far less profitable. In 2025, Analog (power and signal chain) produced revenue of $14.006 billion and operating profit of $5.412 billion, a margin of about 38.6%; Embedded Processing (microcontrollers and processors) produced revenue of $2.697 billion and operating profit of $304 million, a margin of about 11.3%; the Other segment produced revenue of $979 million [16]. Analog products include battery management, DC/DC and AC/DC power, amplifiers, data converters, interface, motor drivers and clocks, which customers use to power devices and to capture and convert signals; embedded products handle control and computing inside devices, and the software customers build on them creates switching costs [17].

Texas Instruments' customer base is highly fragmented, and it sells mainly direct. The company has more than 100,000 customers, about half of revenue comes from customers outside its largest 50, and more than 80% of 2025 revenue was direct, including TI.com, with the rest fulfilled through one worldwide distributor and a few regional distributors [18]. Its products go into five markets, industrial, automotive, data center, personal electronics and communications equipment, and the company singles out industrial, automotive and data center as its best long-term growth opportunities [19].

The company runs its own wafer fabs and assembly and test sites, which is the key to understanding its cost structure. Texas Instruments owns wafer fabrication and assembly/test facilities in North America, Asia, Japan and Europe, and in 2025 it sourced most of its wafer fabrication, assembly and test internally; its new 300mm fabs in Richardson and Sherman, Texas, and Lehi, Utah, absorb customer demand growth, transfers back from external foundries and transfers from legacy 150mm plants [20]. Under a build-ahead strategy, the company holds inventory of broad-based products with low obsolescence risk and adjusts factory loadings to execute that strategy [21]. Research and development plus selling, general and administrative expense totaled $3.94 billion in 2025, or about 22% of revenue [19].

Financial History and Current Position

The 2025 annual report shows that Texas Instruments' profits recovered after bottoming in 2024, but gross margin was still weighed down by the cost of new fabs. In 2025 the company reported revenue of $17.682 billion, gross profit of $10.083 billion (a 57.0% gross margin) and operating profit of $6.023 billion [16]. Net income was $6.510 billion in 2023, fell to $4.799 billion in 2024 and recovered to $5.001 billion in 2025 [22].

Over the same period, heavy capital spending absorbed much of the cash flow, and depreciation climbed quickly as new fabs came on line. In 2025, operating cash flow was $7.153 billion, capital expenditures were $4.550 billion and CHIPS Act incentive proceeds were $335 million; depreciation rose from $1.175 billion in 2023 to $1.918 billion in 2025; dividends totaled $4.999 billion and share repurchases $1.477 billion for the year [22]. The company reported 2025 free cash flow of $2.94 billion, or 16.6% of revenue, and returned $6.48 billion to shareholders during the year [19].

The first two quarters of 2026 show revenue and gross margin accelerating together. First-quarter revenue was $4.825 billion, up about 19% from $4.069 billion a year earlier, with a 58.0% gross margin [8] and net income of $1.545 billion [12]. Second-quarter revenue was $5.463 billion, gross profit $3.352 billion and operating profit $2.310 billion; Analog revenue was $4.365 billion versus $3.452 billion a year earlier, Embedded Processing revenue was $788 million versus $679 million, and Other revenue was $310 million [23]. Second-quarter earnings per share of $2.14 included a $0.05 discrete tax benefit [15].

The balance sheet and trailing 12-month cash flow show the company building cash as capital spending declines. Inventory at the end of the second quarter was $4.61 billion, down $199 million from the end of 2025, and days of inventory were 196, versus 222 at the end of 2025; cash and short-term investments were $7.00 billion, up $2.12 billion from the end of 2025 [10]. Total debt is about $14 billion with a weighted average coupon of about 4%, and trailing 12-month free cash flow was $6.5 billion, including $1.6 billion of CHIPS Act incentives [15]. Operating cash flow for the first half of 2026 was $4.223 billion, versus $2.709 billion a year earlier; capital expenditures fell from $2.428 billion to $1.190 billion; and share repurchases fell from $955 million to $185 million [11]. In June the company signed a 364-day delayed draw term loan for up to $5 billion to fund the Silicon Labs acquisition, and nothing had been drawn as of June 30 [2].

Operating Model

Texas Instruments' revenue depends on unit shipments and average selling prices, and shipments are driven both by customers' production and by changes in customers' inventories. Revenue is the sum of the Analog, Embedded Processing and Other segments, and each segment's revenue is roughly shipments into each end market multiplied by average price; customer restocking can lift shipments in the short run, and once inventories are rebuilt, shipments fall back to the rate of consumption. Prices usually decline about 2% a year, but they held flat in the first half of 2026; increases are being applied customer by customer, with some affecting the third quarter and others rolling out through the fourth quarter and into early 2027 during annual pricing talks, concentrated in the products under the most lead-time pressure, especially automotive [7]. Revenue is also seasonal: sequential growth tends to be weaker in the first and fourth quarters than in the second and third [17].

On the profit side, the core mechanism is fixed-cost leverage, so changes in revenue and loadings pass through to gross and operating profit disproportionately. Cost of revenue is dominated by fixed manufacturing costs such as depreciation and labor, inventory is valued at standard cost based on normal factory utilization, and the cost of underused capacity is expensed as incurred [21], so higher loadings lower both unit costs and underutilization charges; management puts the gross-margin fall-through on incremental revenue at 75% to 85% [24]. In the second quarter, R&D was $535 million and SG&A $490 million, expenses that barely move with revenue, while Analog earned a 45.6% operating margin and Embedded Processing 21.3% [23]. CHIPS Act incentives flow into cost of revenue as a reduction of depreciation expense, worth $353 million in 2025 [25], which lifts gross margin but cannot be separated quarter by quarter.

Cash flow depends mainly on the step down in capital spending and on one-time incentives, set against the cash needed for dividends and the acquisition. Free cash flow is roughly operating cash flow minus capital expenditures plus CHIPS Act proceeds, and operating cash flow is roughly net income plus depreciation minus increases in working capital. The company plans $2 billion to $3 billion of capital expenditures in 2026, far below $4.55 billion in 2025 [26]; CHIPS Act direct funding is up to $1.6 billion, of which $630 million has been received, alongside a 35% investment tax credit that contributed $301 million to first-half operating cash flow [27]. The first use of cash is the dividend: on September 17 the company said it would raise its quarterly dividend 7% from $1.42 to $1.52 per share, or $6.08 annualized, payable November 10, marking its 23rd consecutive annual increase [28].

Industry and Competitive Position

The analog and embedded chip market is highly fragmented, and Texas Instruments competes with dozens of large and small companies. Its competitors include broad-based suppliers, niche suppliers and emerging companies, particularly in Asia; competitiveness depends on product breadth, channel reach, technology, quality, price, and manufacturing capacity and process capability [17].

Texas Instruments' advantages lie in manufacturing cost, supply reliability and its direct channel. An unpackaged chip built on a 300mm wafer costs about 40% less than one built on a 200mm wafer, and the company markets its own US-based capacity as geopolitically dependable [20]; management says it has finished preparing underused clean room space and existing fab shells so it can add capacity quickly [15]. Data center is the fastest-growing market: management says the 800V power architecture adds power conversion stages and expands the company's addressable market, and it looks for data center gross margins to stay around the corporate average [7]. By end market in the second quarter, industrial grew about 30% year on year, automotive grew in the mid-teens, data center roughly doubled, personal electronics was flat, and communications equipment grew both year on year and sequentially [6].

Public data for comparing competitive position is limited. The company does not disclose revenue by end market, a price index or utilization figures, end-market growth rates exist only as management approximations, and price cannot be separated from volume. The 2025 annual report also notes that global semiconductor shipments remain below the prior peak and that this recovery has been slower than past upturns [19], so public materials cannot yet show how much of today's growth is share gain and how much is an industry-wide rebound.

Core Debates

Texas Instruments grew second-quarter revenue 23% year on year and guided the third quarter above seasonal norms. Is this real demand from industrial, automotive and data center customers, or customers rebuilding inventories they had cut too far?

This question determines how long Texas Instruments' current growth and profitability can last. Second-quarter Analog revenue of $4.365 billion made up roughly 80% of company revenue [23], and because the company's costs are dominated by fixed items such as depreciation, changes in revenue pass through to profit at a larger scale. If growth comes from sustainable end demand, high loadings and high margins can persist; if it is mainly one-time restocking, orders will fall once inventories are rebuilt, and operating leverage will magnify the decline.

The evidence for real demand comes from the breadth of end markets and from the company's own guidance. In the second quarter, industrial grew about 30% year on year and about 10% sequentially, with management stressing growth across regions and sectors, and data center roughly doubled [6]; in the first quarter, industrial had already grown more than 30% year on year and data center about 90% [24]. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $5.65 billion to $6.15 billion and said it expects broad demand strength across all end markets to continue into the third quarter [4], and the $5.9 billion midpoint is about 24% above the prior-year actual of $4.742 billion [5].

The alternative explanation is also supported by the company's own evidence. Management said the automotive inflection partly came from restocking after customers let inventories fall to "unsustainable" lows [7], and industrial's sequential jump of more than 20% in the first quarter also looks like restocking [24]; Texas Instruments' own days of inventory fell from 222 at the end of 2025 to 196 at the end of the second quarter [10], showing that demand has been drawing down the company's stock. The current reference points are second-quarter revenue of $5.463 billion (up 23% year on year and 13% sequentially) and Analog revenue of $4.365 billion (versus $3.452 billion a year earlier, up about 26%) [23]. The transmission runs from end production in industrial automation, automotive (Chinese EVs and hybrids) and data center power, plus customer restocking, into orders and shipments, then into Analog and Embedded revenue, and finally into operating profit that the high fixed-cost structure amplifies.

Neither explanation has been disproved, and the fourth-quarter guide is the clearest dividing line. The company's revenue usually weakens sequentially in the fourth quarter [17], and fourth-quarter 2025 revenue was about 6.7% below the third quarter; a fourth-quarter guidance midpoint implying a sequential decline of more than 10% would indicate that restocking orders are starting to fade. For the third quarter, the points to watch are whether revenue reaches at least the $5.9 billion guidance midpoint, whether Analog revenue is still growing more than 20% year on year, and how management describes inventory at industrial and automotive customers. Conversely, third-quarter revenue below the $5.65 billion low end of guidance would refute the above-seasonal case.

Texas Instruments lifted gross margin from 58.0% to 61.4% in the second quarter. With depreciation from its new fabs still rising, is that improvement coming from fuller 300mm factories, or from drawing down inventory, flat pricing and subsidies?

Whether gross margin holds determines whether Texas Instruments' heavy investment in 300mm capacity pays off. Most of the roughly $24 billion of capital expenditures from 2016 to 2025 went into new fabs [14], and depreciation on those fabs plus underused capacity pushed 2025 gross margin down to 57.0% [16]. Higher loadings are the key to recovering that investment, because management's 75% to 85% fall-through on incremental revenue [24] is far above the company's average gross margin.

The evidence for a loadings-driven gain is that almost all of the second quarter's incremental profit came from scale. Second-quarter revenue rose $638 million from the first quarter and gross profit rose $553 million, a fall-through of about 87%, above management's range [8][23]. Management said factory loadings rose from the first quarter to the second and kept rising through the second quarter [7]; because underutilization costs are expensed as incurred, higher loadings directly reduce those charges [21].

The alternative view is that a meaningful part of the improvement is temporary. Inventory fell from $4.81 billion at the end of 2025 to $4.61 billion at the end of the second quarter, and days of inventory from 222 to 196 [10], so some shipments came out of stock already produced; flat first-half pricing is itself a tailwind compared with the usual decline of about 2% a year [7]; and CHIPS Act incentives reduced cost of revenue by $353 million in 2025 [25], which also lifts gross margin. Meanwhile, depreciation from new fabs is still rising: second-quarter depreciation was about $547 million ($1.088 billion for the first half minus $541 million for the first quarter) [11][12], and higher manufacturing costs from planned capacity expansion partly offset the second quarter's gross profit gain [3]. The transmission runs from order growth to higher 300mm loadings, lowering unit fixed costs and underutilization charges; customer-by-customer price increases flow almost entirely into gross profit; and rising depreciation on new fabs and CHIPS incentives that reduce depreciation push cost of revenue in opposite directions.

The third quarter can partly separate these explanations, but the incentive contribution still cannot be isolated by quarter. If inventory dollars stabilize and depreciation does not fall while gross margin keeps rising to at least 62%, with fall-through at or above 75% to 85%, the loadings explanation gains support; management's description of how far price increases reach and of loadings is also a key clue. Conversely, gross margin below 60% would show that depreciation or cost inflation has absorbed the scale benefit, and days of inventory below 180 without higher loadings would show that the margin gain depends on drawing down stock.

Texas Instruments generated $6.5 billion of free cash flow over the past 12 months, but $1.6 billion of that came from one-time CHIPS Act incentives. Excluding them, can operating cash flow minus capital spending keep covering the dividend while the company builds cash for the $7.5 billion Silicon Labs deal?

Free cash flow is the goal Texas Instruments set for itself, so whether it can keep growing beyond incentives sits at the core of the company's capital allocation logic. The company has committed to return all free cash flow to its owners over time and has raised its dividend for 23 consecutive years [28]. The drop in capital expenditures from $4.55 billion in 2025 to a planned $2 billion to $3 billion in 2026 [26] is the main source of this free cash flow jump; at the same time, the company must pay about $7.5 billion for Silicon Labs in the first half of 2027 [13] and has lined up a $5 billion delayed draw term loan for it [2].

The evidence that the cash flow improvement can last comes from rising operating cash flow and falling capital spending. Operating cash flow for the first half of 2026 was $4.22 billion, up $1.51 billion from a year earlier, while capital expenditures fell from $2.43 billion to $1.19 billion [27]. Second-quarter operating cash flow was about $2.703 billion, and after about $514 million of capital expenditures the remainder was about $2.19 billion, more than the roughly $1.3 billion of dividends paid in the quarter [11][12]; cash and short-term investments reached $7 billion at quarter end, up $2.12 billion from the end of 2025 [10].

The alternative view is that much of the cash improvement is one-time, and that capital spending could rise again. In the first half the company received $1.10 billion of CHIPS Act incentives, and another $301 million of tax credits was included in operating cash flow, neither of which is recurring [27]; management said there is now upside to the midpoint of the capital expenditure range, so stronger demand could mean higher capital spending [4]; and share repurchases fell from $955 million a year earlier to $185 million, showing that cash is being held for the acquisition [11]. The current reference points are second-quarter operating cash flow minus capital expenditures, excluding incentives, of about $2.189 billion, with $549 million of CHIPS incentives received on top; quarterly capital expenditures of $514 million, versus $676 million in the first quarter [11][12]; and cash and short-term investments of $7 billion against total debt of about $14 billion [15]. The transmission runs from revenue and gross profit into operating cash flow, with the step down in capital spending magnifying free cash flow, CHIPS direct funding arriving as one-time milestone payments, and the $6.08 annualized dividend per share and the acquisition closing ultimately setting the cash balance and debt.

The third-quarter cash flow statement can test cash generation excluding incentives, but the final funding mix for the acquisition will not be clear until closing approaches. For the third quarter, the points to watch are whether operating cash flow minus capital expenditures is at least $2 billion, whether 2026 capital expenditure guidance rises above $3 billion, whether cash and short-term investments stay at or above $7 billion with the term loan still undrawn, and how regulatory approval of the Silicon Labs deal progresses. If quarterly cash flow excluding incentives falls below $1.3 billion, the dividend would have to lean on incentives or borrowing; if capital spending is raised above $3 billion, the case for a free cash flow step up weakens.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is China and geopolitics, which affect both demand and pricing. Management confirmed that the second-quarter automotive inflection was led by Chinese EV and hybrid demand driven by fuel costs [15], while the 10-K notes growing emerging competition in Asia [17], so trade policy or local substitution could cut both automotive shipments and prices. The company does not disclose its China revenue share or automotive revenue, so this exposure can only be observed indirectly through growth rates; if third-quarter automotive growth runs above the second quarter's mid-teens pace and management does not mention Chinese customers switching suppliers or price competition, this concern weakens.

The second risk is that orders fall once customer restocking ends, reversing the strong second- and third-quarter growth in the fourth quarter and early 2027. This risk lands directly on the Analog segment: in the second quarter, Analog revenue was $4.365 billion and operating profit $1.992 billion, a 45.6% margin [23], and under a high fixed-cost structure a revenue decline would cut profit by a larger proportion. If the fourth-quarter guidance midpoint implies a sequential decline of no more than about 7% and management confirms that end consumption is still growing, this risk would be falsified.

The third risk is that depreciation from new fabs keeps rising while loadings improve more slowly, leaving gross margin stuck near 60%. Depreciation was $1.918 billion in 2025 [22] and about $547 million in the second quarter of 2026 [11]; at the $5.9 billion third-quarter guidance midpoint [4], each percentage point of gross margin equals about $59 million of gross profit. If third-quarter gross margin is at least 62% and depreciation has not fallen, this risk would be falsified.

The fourth risk is that buying Silicon Labs requires substantial borrowing, raising interest costs and further shrinking buybacks after closing. The deal carries an enterprise value of about $7.5 billion [13], the company has signed a $5 billion delayed draw term loan [2], and at the end of the second quarter total debt was about $14 billion against $7 billion of cash and short-term investments [15]. If cash keeps building before closing, the loan stays undrawn and quarterly cash flow continues to cover the dividend, this risk weakens.

What to Watch Next

  • Real demand or restocking, revenue and the fourth-quarter guide: from second-quarter revenue of $5.463 billion, up 23% [23], watch whether third-quarter revenue reaches the $5.9 billion midpoint and how deep the sequential decline in the fourth-quarter guide is. A decline of more than 10% points to fading restocking; revenue below $5.65 billion refutes the above-seasonal case.
  • Real demand or restocking, Analog growth and customer inventory: from second-quarter Analog revenue of $4.365 billion, up about 26% [23], watch whether growth stays above 20% and what management says about industrial and automotive customer inventories. Growth above 20% with confirmed end-consumption growth supports real demand.
  • Loadings and gross margin, margin and fall-through: from a 61.4% second-quarter gross margin versus 58.0% in the first quarter [3][8], watch whether margin reaches at least 62% and fall-through lands at or above 75% to 85%. Margin below 60% means depreciation or costs absorbed the scale benefit.
  • Loadings and gross margin, inventory and pricing: from $4.61 billion of inventory and 196 days at the end of the second quarter [10], watch whether inventory dollars stabilize and how management describes the reach of price increases and loadings. Days below 180 without higher loadings mean the margin gain relies on drawing down stock.
  • Cash flow after the capex cycle, cash generation excluding incentives: from about $2.189 billion in the second quarter plus $549 million of incentives [11], watch whether the third quarter reaches at least $2 billion. Below $1.3 billion, the dividend would lean on incentives or borrowing.
  • Cash flow after the capex cycle, capex guidance, cash and the deal: from full-year capex guidance of $2 billion to $3 billion [4] and $7 billion of cash and short-term investments [10], watch for any raise above $3 billion, whether cash stays at or above $7 billion with the loan undrawn, and regulatory approvals. Capex above $3 billion weakens the free cash flow step-up case.

Conclusion

Texas Instruments' results are driven jointly by analog chip shipments, 300mm factory loadings and the capital spending cycle, and all three are at a turning point. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $5.46 billion, up 23% year on year, gross margin was 61.4%, quarter-end cash and short-term investments were $7 billion, and trailing 12-month free cash flow was $6.5 billion [2][3][10]. The central unresolved relationship is how much of revenue growth reflects end demand versus customer restocking, and how much of the gross margin gain comes from loadings versus inventory drawdown, pricing tailwinds and incentives; those answers will directly decide how far free cash flow excluding incentives can rise once capital spending falls.

Two independent post-results analyses could be checked against their original text, and neither takes management's view that the broad growth cycle will continue at face value. In a July 24 piece, Brendan Burke of Futurum Group split the growth in two: the strength in industrial partly reflects restocking after customers cut inventories too far and will not last indefinitely, while data center, where the 800V power architecture raises analog content per system, is becoming "a durable analog franchise for TI, not a single-cycle beneficiary of AI spending"; he sees the setup as the front end of a broad upcycle in which customer-by-customer pricing is a quality lever but volume remains the main growth driver, and he noted that the above-seasonal guide still drew a cool market reaction [29]. On September 15, electronic component distributor Aetrix Electronics analyzed the company's September 1 price increase notice, noting that it gave no single percentage, complete list of affected parts or company-wide effective date, and cautioned that "a price increase can protect a business from higher costs without improving profitability," with higher prices offering limited help if new fabs remain lightly loaded [30]. What the two share is a refusal to equate growth or price increases with durable profit improvement: Futurum's analysis bears on the first debate, supporting a structural reading of data center while attributing part of industrial to restocking, and Aetrix's bears on the second, departing from management's attribution of the increases to tight lead times and insisting that loadings and costs be the test. Neither offers a testable numeric threshold, so both are outside interpretations rather than facts or a vote.

The current understanding would be materially strengthened if several observations arrive together: third-quarter revenue of at least $5.9 billion with Analog growth holding above 20%, gross margin of at least 62% with inventory dollars stable and depreciation not falling, operating cash flow minus capital expenditures excluding incentives of at least $2 billion, and a fourth-quarter guide implying a sequential decline of no more than about 7%. Conversely, a fourth-quarter guide implying a sequential decline of more than 10%, gross margin below 60%, quarterly cash flow excluding incentives below $1.3 billion, or capital expenditure guidance raised above $3 billion would materially weaken the current understanding of demand, margins and cash flow.

Sources

[1] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-09-26) · TXN 2026-10-27 call · 2026-09-26 · Drillr earnings calendar

[2] TXN 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 performance summary and Silicon Labs financing · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000097476/000009747626000152/txn-20260630.htm

[3] TXN 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 results versus 2Q25 · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000097476/000009747626000152/txn-20260630.htm

[4] TXN 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-22 · Drillr structured summary (guidance) · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[5] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-09-25) · TXN 3Q26 consensus · 2026-09-25 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[6] TXN 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-22 · Drillr structured summary (segments and end markets) · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] TXN 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-22 · Drillr structured summary (Q&A on pricing, loadings and data center) · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] TXN 10-Q filed 2026-04-24 · 1Q26 segment information · 2026-04-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000101/

[9] TXN 10-Q filed 2026-04-24 · 1Q26 financial condition · 2026-04-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000101/

[10] TXN 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 financial condition · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000097476/000009747626000152/txn-20260630.htm

[11] TXN 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 1H26 and 1Q26 cash flow statements · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000097476/000009747626000152/txn-20260630.htm

[12] TXN 10-Q filed 2026-04-24 · 1Q26 cash flow statement · 2026-04-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000101/

[13] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Silicon Labs acquisition subsequent event · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[14] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Strategy and capital allocation · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[15] TXN 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-22 · Drillr structured summary (management highlights) · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[16] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · FY2025 segment information · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[17] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Competitive landscape, cycle and seasonality · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[18] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Customers, sales and distribution · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[19] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Performance summary and markets · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[20] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Manufacturing and 300mm cost advantage · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[21] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Inventory strategy and underutilization accounting · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[22] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · FY2023-FY2025 cash flow statement · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[23] TXN 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 segment information · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000097476/000009747626000152/txn-20260630.htm

[24] TXN 1Q26 earnings call 2026-04-22 · Drillr structured summary · 2026-04-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[25] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · CHIPS Act incentives note · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[26] TXN 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Liquidity, 2026 capex plan and CHIPS Act · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=10-K

[27] TXN 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 1H26 liquidity, capex plan and CHIPS Act · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000097476/000009747626000152/txn-20260630.htm

[28] TXN 8-K filed 2026-09-17 · dividend increase · 2026-09-17 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000097476&type=8-K

[29] Futurum 2026-07-24 · Texas Instruments Q2 FY 2026 Earnings Climb on Broad-based Analog Growth · 2026-07-24 · Futurum Group · https://futurumgroup.com/insights/texas-instruments-q2-fy-2026-earnings-climb-on-broad-based-analog-growth/

[30] Aetrix Electronics 2026-09-15 · TI Price Increase September 2026: What It Signals for TI Demand, Margins and the Semiconductor Cycle · 2026-09-15 · Aetrix Electronics · https://www.aetrixelec.com/blog/texas-instruments-price-increase-september-2026-demand-margins

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