[SHOP] Shopify: Q3 2026 earnings preview on payments mix, gross profit and lending

Shopify runs an all-in-one commerce platform on which merchants manage products, orders and payments across online stores, physical retail, wholesale and social channels from a single back office[1], and it will hold its earnings call on 2026-11-03 to report results for the third quarter 2026, the three months ended September 30, 2026[2]. In the latest reported period, the second quarter of 2026, gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached $115.567 billion, up 32% year over year; revenue was $3.583 billion, up 34%; gross profit was $1.708 billion, up 31%; operating income was $488 million; and free cash flow was $654 million, or 18% of revenue[3]. Shopify's August 5 outlook for the third quarter calls for revenue growth at a low-thirties percentage rate, gross profit growth in the mid-to-high twenties, operating expenses at 33% to 34% of revenue, stock-based compensation of $150 million and a free cash flow margin in the high-teens to low-twenties[4]. As of October 13, the 28 analysts tracked by Drillr had a third-quarter revenue consensus of $3.696 billion (range $3.656 billion to $3.745 billion), about 30% above the $2.844 billion of the prior-year third quarter and at the low end of company guidance; the 23 analysts with an earnings-per-share estimate averaged $0.46, and the data source does not state whether that figure is on an adjusted basis[5][6].

Three things matter most in the upcoming Shopify Q3 2026 earnings. First is whether gross profit keeps up with revenue: in the second quarter, Shopify Payments penetration rose to 68% and merchant solutions revenue grew 37%, while subscription revenue grew only 22%[7][8], and the company attributes the expected gap between third-quarter gross profit growth and revenue growth to this mix shift[9]; whether gross profit growth lands above 25% and near the second quarter's 31%, or falls below guidance, will show whether the mix shift only dilutes gross margin or has begun to slow gross profit itself. Second is whether subscription gross margin stops falling: second-quarter subscription cost of revenue grew 35%, including a $37 million increase in cloud and infrastructure costs that include AI-related usage, and subscription gross margin fell from about 81.6% a year earlier to about 79.7%[10][11]; a return above 80% in the third quarter would indicate that free AI features are not steadily eroding the highest-margin business. Third is whether lending losses eat into operating leverage: operating expenses fell from 37.7% of revenue a year earlier to 34.0% in the second quarter, but transaction and loan losses rose 76% and the 30-to-179-day delinquency share climbed from 2.3% at the end of 2025 to 3.0%[12][13][14]; whether third-quarter operating expenses land at 33% to 34% of revenue without a further rise in loss rates will show whether profit growth still comes mainly from expense discipline.

Company Background and Business Structure

Shopify is incorporated in Canada and headquartered in Ottawa; it was founded in 2004 as Jaded Pixel Technologies, renamed in 2011 and listed in 2015, and it describes itself as essential internet infrastructure for commerce[1]. At the end of 2025 its merchants came from more than 175 countries, with 44% in the United States, 31% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, 16% in Asia Pacific, and 5% each in Canada and Latin America; no single merchant has ever accounted for more than 5% of revenue in any reporting period[15]. The company had about 7,600 employees at the end of 2025, and more than 21,000 apps were available in the Shopify App Store[16][17].

Shopify reports a single operating segment but discloses revenue in two components, subscription solutions and merchant solutions[17]. Subscription solutions consist mainly of monthly plans such as Basic, Grow and Advanced, plus Shopify Plus and enterprise offerings priced at several times the Advanced plan; most merchants use the standard plans, but the majority of GMV comes from Plus and enterprise merchants, and some contracts include a variable platform fee that moves with GMV[18]. Merchant solutions come mainly from payment processing and currency conversion fees on Shopify Payments, along with Shopify Capital lending, partner referral fees, shipping labels, point-of-sale hardware, and advertising on the App Store and Shop Campaigns[19]. In 2025, subscription revenue was $2.752 billion, or 24% of the total, and merchant solutions revenue was $8.804 billion, or 76%[20].

Shopify's collection terms tie up almost no working capital, but merchant lending does consume balance sheet. Payment processing fees arrive daily as transactions are processed, standard subscription fees are paid at the start of the billing period, and Plus merchants pay at the end of the month; the main cash outlays are third-party payment processing fees, employees, marketing and outsourced hosting[21]. Shopify Capital provides loans and merchant cash advances (MCAs) to merchants; the net balance of loans and MCAs was $2.184 billion at the end of June 2026, and the related transaction and loan losses are recorded as operating expenses[22][23].

Financial History and Current Position

Shopify has grown revenue by more than 20% a year over the past three fiscal years and turned to an operating profit in 2024. Revenue rose from $7.060 billion in 2023 to $8.880 billion in 2024 and $11.556 billion in 2025, a 30% increase in 2025, with subscription solutions up 17% and merchant solutions up 35%[20]. Gross profit in 2025 was $5.555 billion, a gross margin of about 48.1%, and operating income was $1.468 billion; in 2023 a $1.340 billion impairment on the sale of the logistics businesses produced an operating loss of $1.418 billion, and 2024 operating income was $1.075 billion[24]. GMV in 2025 was $378.441 billion, up 29%; monthly recurring revenue (MRR) was $205 million at year-end, up 15%; and Shopify Payments penetration rose from 61.9% in 2024 to 65.6%[25][26][27].

Growth in the first two quarters of 2026 ran faster than in full-year 2025, and operating margin rose clearly. In the first quarter, GMV was $100.743 billion, up 35%; revenue was $3.170 billion, up 34%; operating income was $382 million, against $203 million a year earlier; and free cash flow was $476 million, or 15% of revenue[28]. In the second quarter, revenue was $3.583 billion, up 34% (33% in constant currency); gross profit grew 31%; operating income was $488 million, up 68%; and free cash flow was $654 million, or 18% of revenue versus 16% a year earlier[3][8]. Second-quarter gross margin was 47.7%, below 48.6% a year earlier, a trend consistent with the revenue mix tilting toward merchant solutions over the past year[12][6].

Shopify holds ample cash and uses it mainly for buybacks and lending, while net income swings heavily with the market value of equity investments and is a poor direct gauge of operations. Operating cash flow in 2025 was $2.033 billion, and cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities stood at $5.778 billion at year-end[29]; by the end of June 2026 that balance had fallen by $831 million to about $4.9 billion, mainly because of share repurchases and net lending to merchants[30]. Shopify repurchased $1.420 billion of stock in the second quarter while capital expenditures were only $4 million[31], and the board added $3 billion of authorization during the quarter, bringing the aggregate repurchase authorization to $5 billion[32]. Equity and equity-method investments produced a $1.228 billion gain in the second quarter after a $1.082 billion loss in the first[12], leaving a first-quarter net loss of $581 million and second-quarter net income of $1.502 billion, even though operating income was around $400 million in both quarters[3].

Operating Model

Shopify's revenue can be broken into a subscription formula and a merchant-services formula, and both ultimately depend on how much merchants sell. Subscription revenue roughly equals average MRR for the period times three, plus variable platform fees that move with GMV and revenue from apps, themes and domains; MRR depends on the number of paying merchants, the plan mix and pricing[17][33]. Merchant solutions revenue roughly equals GMV times Shopify Payments penetration times the payment take rate, plus lending revenue and income from shipping labels, hardware, referral fees and advertising; of the $115.567 billion of second-quarter GMV, 68%, or $78.1 billion, was processed through Shopify Payments[7]. Revenue is clearly seasonal, peaking in the fourth-quarter holiday period and bottoming in the first quarter, so quarters should be compared year over year rather than sequentially[34].

Gross profit is the sum of two businesses with very different margins, and operating income depends on the leverage left after four categories of operating expense. In the second quarter, subscription gross margin was about 79.7%, with cloud and infrastructure as the main cost, while merchant solutions gross margin was about 38.4%, with payment processing fees paid to card networks and acquirers as the main cost[11][10][35]. Each point of revenue mix that shifts toward merchant solutions therefore pulls down consolidated gross margin, and that effect shows up in the same quarter. Sales and marketing ran at 14% of revenue, research and development at 12%, general and administrative at about 4%, and transaction and loan losses at about 3.9%, for a combined 34.0% in the second quarter[12][36][37]; transaction and loan losses rise as lending expands, with provisions booked against expected losses after origination and charge-offs following merchant delinquency.

Operating cash flow moves closely with operating income, and free cash flow is almost equal to operating cash flow. Second-quarter operating cash flow was $658 million and capital expenditures were $4 million[31]. Lending no longer weighs on operating cash flow: starting in April 2026, Shopify presents MCA cash flows within investing activities, consistent with loans, and in the second quarter this change showed up as a $37 million net cash use in investing activities[38]; in the same quarter, purchases and originations of loans and MCAs were $1.584 billion and repayments were $1.417 billion[31]. The change followed a Canadian regulatory amendment that led Shopify to convert its Capital product in Canada from MCAs to loans[39], and it makes the 2026 free cash flow margin not fully comparable with prior years.

Industry and Competitive Position

Shopify operates in a highly fragmented market, with competitors spanning ecommerce software, content management, payments, point of sale, logistics and alternative lending, and merchants can also combine single-purpose services from several vendors[40]. In its 10-K the company anticipates rising competition and acknowledges that its long-term growth rate will decline as merchant counts and penetration rise[40][41]. That means Shopify's growth depends increasingly on capturing more volume and more service revenue from existing merchants, not just on adding new ones.

Management data show Shopify merchants taking a far larger share of incremental US ecommerce than of the existing market, but these comparisons all come from the company's own framing. Management said Shopify merchants have captured nearly half of all incremental US ecommerce dollars since the start of 2025, while Shopify holds just over 14% of total US ecommerce[42] and less than 1% of global retail sales[43]. Second-quarter North America GMV grew 28% and Europe GMV grew 34% in constant currency; retention was 92% for merchants with more than $1 million of annual GMV and 97% for those above $10 million[43]. In newer channels, second-quarter offline point-of-sale GMV grew 32%, B2B GMV grew 76% and Shop Pay GMV grew 53%[44]; AI-driven traffic and orders to Shopify stores tripled year over year[45], and management said AI-channel sales are monetized at existing rates with no new or separate fees[46]. These channels are disclosed only as GMV growth rates, without separate revenue or profit, which limits how far the comparison can go.

Core Debates

More than three quarters of Shopify's revenue now comes from payments and other merchant services that scale with sales volume. With third-quarter revenue guided to grow in the low thirties but gross profit only in the mid-to-high twenties, can rising payments penetration keep gross profit growing at that pace?

Gross profit is what funds Shopify's operating expenses and generates its free cash flow, so a change in revenue mix ultimately reaches profit and cash flow. Merchant solutions gross margin is about 38% and subscription about 80%, and merchant solutions rose from 76% of revenue a year earlier to 78%[47], with each additional point pulling consolidated gross margin lower. In the second quarter revenue, gross profit and free cash flow all grew by more than 30%[3]; if third-quarter gross profit growth falls below guidance, operating income growth will have to lean more heavily on a lower operating expense ratio.

Current evidence indicates that the decline in consolidated gross margin comes mainly from mix rather than from a weaker payments business. Second-quarter GMV grew 32% (30% in constant currency), Shopify Payments penetration rose from 64% a year earlier to 68%, and GMV processed through Shopify Payments grew 38%[8][7]; merchant solutions revenue grew 37%, subscription revenue 22% and total revenue 34%, while gross profit grew 31% (30% in constant currency) and gross margin was 47.7% versus 48.6% a year earlier[8][12]. Merchant solutions gross margin was about 38.4%, slightly above roughly 37.9% a year earlier, and its cost growth came mainly from higher payment processing fees on more GMV processed through Shopify Payments[6][11][35].

The transmission runs from merchant sales through penetration and take rate to gross margin. Merchants selling through online stores, offline retail, B2B, the Shop App and AI channels generate GMV; the portion processed through Shopify Payments produces processing and currency conversion fees booked as merchant solutions revenue, while Shopify pays processing costs to card networks and acquirers and keeps a gross margin of about 38%. The company's third-quarter outlook calls for low-thirties revenue growth and mid-to-high-twenties gross profit growth, and it attributes the gap to faster growth in merchant solutions and payments[4][9]; the third-quarter revenue consensus of $3.696 billion implies growth of about 30%[5].

What remains unresolved is whether the guidance reflects mix alone or whether conservatism is masking a slowdown in volume. The alternative reading is that actual growth in both the first and second quarters far exceeded the guidance in place at the time: the second-quarter outlook called for high-twenties revenue growth and mid-twenties gross profit growth, against actual results of 34% and 31%[48][3], so the third-quarter guidance may be similarly conservative, and the real risk would be a slowdown in volume growth itself. The third-quarter report should answer four questions: whether gross profit growth is at least 25% and close to the second quarter's 31%, whether revenue growth exceeds 30% and how much currency contributes, whether Shopify Payments penetration is above 68%, and whether merchant solutions gross margin holds around 38%. Gross profit growth below 25% would mean volume growth did not convert to gross profit as the company expected; GMV growth below 25% would mean the slowdown comes from merchant sales themselves, not just revenue mix.

Subscriptions are Shopify's highest-margin business. In the second quarter subscription revenue grew 22% while its cost of revenue rose 35%. With AI features offered at no extra charge, will subscription gross margin keep falling?

Subscriptions are only about a fifth of revenue but contribute more than a third of gross profit, so changes in their margin have an outsized effect on consolidated gross profit. Second-quarter subscription gross profit was $639 million, about 37% of total gross profit of $1.708 billion[6][11][12]. If subscription growth slows or its gross margin keeps sliding, consolidated gross margin will fall faster than mix alone would imply, and Shopify will depend more heavily on payments volume.

Current evidence shows subscription revenue accelerating, but costs growing faster. MRR was $221 million at the end of the second quarter, up 19%[49], with Plus accounting for 34% of MRR[50]; subscription revenue was $802 million, up 22%, which the company attributes to more merchants, a larger share of higher-priced plans such as Plus, and variable platform fees driven by GMV[33]. Subscription cost of revenue was $163 million, up 35%, including a $37 million increase in cloud and infrastructure costs that the 10-Q explicitly says includes AI-related usage[10]; subscription gross margin was about 79.7% versus about 81.6% a year earlier[11]. On the earnings call, management said Shopify matches models of different cost to tasks of different difficulty and that scaling Sidekick and other AI features did not erode subscription gross margins[51].

Subscription economics run along two lines: plans and merchant counts on the revenue side, and AI usage on the cost side. Merchants opening stores and upgrading from standard plans to Plus or enterprise offerings raise period-end MRR, which is recognized month by month as subscription fees in the following quarter, and GMV growth adds subscription revenue through variable platform fees. Merchants pay nothing extra to use Sidekick and other AI features, while cloud and model-inference costs flow directly into subscription cost of revenue, and the two together set subscription gross margin. MRR growth is also shaped by prior-year policy: first-quarter MRR grew 16%, slower than a year earlier because the effect of the Plus price increase in the second quarter of 2024 had lapsed[52][28], while the faster second-quarter growth reflected an easy comparison created by the prior-year extension of paid trials[49].

What remains unresolved is which is more durable: the second-quarter subscription acceleration or the decline in subscription gross margin. The alternative reading is that MRR acceleration partly reflects the low base from the trial policy, so growth may ease in the third quarter as that base effect fades, while the AI share of costs may stabilize as model prices fall. The third-quarter report should answer four questions: whether subscription revenue growth stays above 20%, whether September-end MRR growth is at least 17%, whether subscription gross margin returns above 80%, and whether subscription cost growth slows to near revenue growth. Subscription gross margin below 78.5% would mean AI and cloud costs are still eroding the highest-margin business; MRR growth back below 15% would mean the second-quarter acceleration was mainly a base effect from the trial policy.

Shopify's merchant lending book has grown by more than a fifth in six months, and loan losses and delinquencies both rose in the second quarter. Can operating expenses still fall to the 33%-34% of revenue that the company expects for the third quarter?

When gross profit grows more slowly than revenue, operating income and free cash flow growth depend mainly on a falling operating expense ratio, and credit cost is the most volatile piece of that ratio. Second-quarter transaction and loan losses were $141 million, about 3.9% of revenue and roughly equal to general and administrative expense of $136 million[12]. If credit costs accelerate, they will offset the expense leverage that comes from marketing and headcount discipline.

Current evidence shows the expense ratio still falling, but credit indicators deteriorating. Operating expenses were 34.0% of revenue in the second quarter versus 37.7% a year earlier[12]; within that, marketing program spend rose $85 million and employee-related costs fell $16 million[36], while computer hardware and software costs in research and development, including AI-related usage, rose $34 million[37]. Transaction and loan losses rose 76%, with lending-related losses up $41 million and Shopify Payments-related losses up $19 million[13]; the provision for credit losses on loans and MCAs was $81 million versus $42 million a year earlier, and net charge-offs were $59 million versus $35 million[53]. The 30-to-89-day delinquency share was 1.4% and the 90-to-179-day share 1.6%, for a combined 3.0% against 2.3% at the end of 2025, while the 180-day-plus share was flat at 5.7%[14]. Management said loss rates for payments, Capital and credit products are at normalized levels[54].

The transmission links lending volume, provisions and operating expenses, while the cash effect has moved to investing activities. Using merchants' GMV and operating data, Shopify originates loans through partner banks and buys the full receivable; net loans and MCAs grew from $1.784 billion at the end of 2025 to $2.184 billion at the end of June, with a gross balance of $2.426 billion and an allowance of $242 million[22][53]. Revenue from the larger book is recorded in merchant solutions, while provisions for expected losses and charge-offs after delinquency are recorded in transaction and loan losses, which in turn affect the operating expense ratio and operating income. Second-quarter free cash flow margin was 18%, but MCA cash flows have been presented in investing activities since April[3][38], and the company said its third-quarter free cash flow outlook includes a tailwind of less than one percentage point from the reclassification; its third-quarter operating expense outlook is 33% to 34% of revenue, compared with 37% in the third quarter of 2025[9].

What remains unresolved is whether rising losses reflect the larger lending book or a weakening in merchants' ability to repay. The alternative reading is that loss growth comes mainly from a book that grew about 22% in six months, that the allowance has stayed fairly stable at roughly 10% of gross loans, and that higher delinquency is the natural result of new originations reaching their peak-loss age. For reference, transaction and loan losses in the third quarter of 2025 were $148 million, about 5.2% of that quarter's revenue, and the operating expense ratio was about 36.8%[12][6]. The third-quarter report should answer four questions: whether operating expenses land at 33% to 34% of revenue, whether transaction and loan losses stay at or below 4% of revenue, whether the 30-to-179-day delinquency share stops rising, and whether free cash flow margin excluding the MCA reclassification is at least 17%. Transaction and loan losses above 4.5% of revenue would mean credit costs are offsetting expense leverage; a delinquency share above 3.5% would mean merchants' ability to repay is weakening.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is that small and medium-sized merchants are more sensitive to consumer demand, tariffs and supply-chain changes, so a consumer slowdown would depress GMV, payments revenue and merchants' ability to repay at the same time. Shopify acknowledges in its 10-K that small and medium-sized businesses are more susceptible than larger ones to inflation, declines in consumer spending and trade protection measures[55]; the exposure sits in second-quarter GMV of $115.567 billion, merchant solutions revenue of $2.781 billion[3][8] and a net loan and MCA balance of $2.184 billion[22]. If third-quarter GMV growth is at least 25% and growth in North America (28% in the second quarter) and Europe (34% in constant currency in the second quarter) does not slow markedly[43], the concern has not shown up in the data.

The second risk is that mark-to-market accounting on equity investments makes net income swing sharply and obscures real changes in operating profit. Second-quarter net income was $1.502 billion, including an after-tax mark-to-market gain on equity investments of $1.063 billion, while the first quarter showed a net loss of $581 million against operating income of $382 million[31][12][3]. Third-quarter operating performance should be judged on operating income and free cash flow rather than net income; if those measures move opposite to net income, that does not by itself signal an operating problem.

The third risk is that payments keep gaining share while merchant solutions gross margin is squeezed by rate discounts for large merchants or by processing costs, so consolidated gross margin falls faster than the company anticipates. The exposure is second-quarter gross profit of $1.708 billion at a 47.7% gross margin, and the third-quarter comparison base is prior-year third-quarter gross profit of $1.391 billion at a 48.9% margin[6][12][35][9]. If third-quarter merchant solutions gross margin is at least 38.2% and gross profit growth is at least 25%, the risk has not materialized.

The fourth risk is that AI features offered at no extra charge see rapid usage growth, so cloud and model-inference costs keep rising faster than subscription revenue. The exposure is second-quarter subscription gross profit of about $639 million at a subscription gross margin of about 79.7%, against prior-year third-quarter subscription gross profit of about $571 million[10][11][51]. If third-quarter subscription gross margin is at least 80% and subscription cost growth does not exceed subscription revenue growth, management's statement that AI scaling has not eroded margins would be supported.

The fifth risk is that merchant loan delinquencies keep rising, provisions and charge-offs accelerate, and transaction and loan losses push up the operating expense ratio. The exposure is second-quarter transaction and loan losses of $141 million, about 3.9% of revenue, and operating income of $488 million, with Shopify bearing the full risk on $2.426 billion of gross loans and MCAs[14][53][13][22]. If the third-quarter 30-to-179-day delinquency share is no higher than 3.0% and transaction and loan losses are no more than 4% of revenue, current credit quality remains within a manageable range.

What to Watch Next

• Payments mix and gross profit: gross profit grew 31% to $1.708 billion in the second quarter; growth below 25% in the third quarter would mean volume is not converting to gross profit as guided.
• Volume and penetration: GMV grew 32% with Shopify Payments penetration at 68%; GMV growth below 25% would point to a slowdown in merchant sales themselves.
• Merchant solutions gross margin: about 38.4% in the second quarter; a reading below 38.2% would suggest rate discounts or processing costs are compressing margin.
• Subscription gross margin: about 79.7% in the second quarter; a return above 80% supports management's account, while a reading below 78.5% means AI and cloud costs are still eroding it.
• MRR: $221 million at the end of June, up 19%; growth of at least 17% at the end of September is the bar, and growth back below 15% would mark the second-quarter acceleration as a base effect.
• Operating expense ratio: 34.0% in the second quarter against guidance of 33% to 34% for the third; a reading above guidance would mean expense leverage is being offset.
• Transaction and loan losses: about 3.9% of revenue in the second quarter; above 4.5% would mean credit costs are offsetting expense leverage.
• Delinquency: the 30-to-179-day share was 3.0% at the end of June; above 3.5% would indicate merchants' ability to repay is weakening.

Conclusion

Shopify's business is driven by merchant sales volume: GMV converts through Shopify Payments penetration into merchant solutions revenue at a gross margin of about 38%, and through MRR and variable platform fees into subscription revenue at a gross margin of about 80%, before operating expenses led by marketing, research and development, and credit losses. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 34%, gross profit 31% and operating income 68%, with an 18% free cash flow margin[3], and cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were about $4.9 billion at the end of June[30], leaving ample cash on the balance sheet. The central unresolved relationship is whether, with payments mix holding gross profit growth below revenue growth, subscription gross margin sliding and credit losses growing faster than revenue, third-quarter profit growth can still rest on a falling operating expense ratio.

Independent commentator Taylor Sicard published an analysis the day after the second-quarter results that partly conflicts with management's explanation[56]. Sicard argues that the decline in consolidated gross margin is not only a result of payments gaining share: merchant solutions gross margin improved slightly year over year, and the line that weakened is subscription gross margin, now at its lowest in ten quarters; this bears on the second core debate and runs against management's statement that AI scaling has not eroded subscription gross margins[56][51]. Sicard also notes that Shopify Capital's provision for credit losses rose 93% year over year and the 30-to-179-day delinquency share rose from 2.3% to 3.0%, moving opposite to strong GMV growth, and cautions that part of the 18% free cash flow margin comes from the MCA reclassification, which bears on the third core debate[56]; yet Sicard also acknowledges that the 180-day-plus bucket was flat and the allowance sits near 10% of the gross book, so this is not a solvency question, a point that does not contradict management's statement that loss rates are at normalized levels[54]. The other coverage found after the second-quarter results was mostly recaps of reported numbers and product news about AI shopping channels, which offered no further independent judgments to compare, so this conclusion rests on a single outside interpretation that should not be treated as a market-wide view.

If third-quarter gross profit growth stays above 25%, subscription gross margin returns above 80%, transaction and loan losses stay at or below 4% of revenue, the 30-to-179-day delinquency share stops rising, and operating expenses land at 33% to 34% of revenue, that combination would strengthen the reading that the margin decline is mainly mix and that profit leverage remains intact. Conversely, if gross profit growth falls below 25% or GMV growth drops below 25%, subscription gross margin slides toward or below 78.5%, and transaction and loan losses exceed 4.5% of revenue or delinquencies exceed 3.5%, that combination would weaken this reading and indicate that cost and credit pressure are catching up with growth.

Sources

[1] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · overview · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[2] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-13) · SHOP 2026-11-03 call · 2026-10-13 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] SHOP 8-K filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 2026 selected business performance · 2026-08-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000046/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm

[4] SHOP 8-K filed 2026-08-05 · Q3 2026 outlook · 2026-08-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000046/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm

[5] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-13) · SHOP quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-13 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[6] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · eight-quarter revenue · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[7] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 Shopify Payments penetration · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[8] SHOP 8-K filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 2026 constant currency analysis · 2026-08-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000046/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm

[9] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · Q3 2026 guidance detail · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 cost of subscription solutions · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[11] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · eight-quarter cost of revenues · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[12] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · eight-quarter gross profit and opex · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[13] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 transaction and loan losses · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[14] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · loan and MCA delinquency · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[15] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · merchant base and geography · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[16] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · employees · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[17] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · two revenue components · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[18] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · plans and Shopify Plus GMV share · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[19] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · merchant solutions offerings · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[20] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 revenue by solution · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[21] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · sources of operating cash · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[22] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · loans and MCA balances · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[23] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · transaction and loan losses definition · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[24] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 income statement · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[25] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 MRR and GMV · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[26] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 MRR · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[27] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 Shopify Payments penetration · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[28] SHOP 8-K filed 2026-05-05 · Q1 2026 selected business performance · 2026-05-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000018/exhibit991pressreleaseq120.htm

[29] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 cash flows · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[30] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · cash and marketable securities · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[31] SHOP 8-K filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 2026 cash flows and buybacks · 2026-08-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000046/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm

[32] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · share repurchase authorization · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[33] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 subscription revenue drivers · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[34] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · seasonality · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[35] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 cost of merchant solutions · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[36] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 sales and marketing · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[37] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 research and development · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[38] SHOP 8-K filed 2026-08-05 · MCA cash flow reclassification · 2026-08-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000046/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm

[39] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Canada MCA-to-loan transition · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[40] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · competition · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[41] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · growth rate expected to decline · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[42] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · US e-commerce share · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[43] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · geographic and merchant-size GMV · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[44] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · offline, B2B and Shop Pay · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[45] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · AI traffic and orders · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[46] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · agentic commerce monetization Q&A · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[47] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · segment and payments performance · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[48] SHOP 8-K filed 2026-05-05 · Q2 2026 outlook · 2026-05-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000018/exhibit991pressreleaseq120.htm

[49] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · MRR at June 30, 2026 · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[50] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · MRR and Plus mix · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[51] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · operating expense discipline · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[52] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-05-05 · Q1 2026 MRR growth driver · 2026-05-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000019/shop-20260331.htm

[53] SHOP 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · allowance for credit losses · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm

[54] SHOP Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-05 · stated loss rates · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[55] SHOP 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · SMB merchant risk · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000007/shop-20251231.htm

[56] Taylor Sicard 2026-08-06 · Shopify Q2 2026 Earnings: The Operator's Read · 2026-08-06 · taylorsicard.com · https://taylorsicard.com/blog/shopify-q2-2026-earnings