[FMX] FEMSA: Q3 2026 Preview, Can OXXO Traffic Hold After the World Cup?

FEMSA runs Mexico's OXXO convenience stores, controls the Coca-Cola bottler Coca-Cola FEMSA and operates drugstores and fuel stations across Latin America[1]. In this FEMSA Q3 2026 earnings preview, the company is scheduled to report Q3 2026 (3Q26, the three months ended September 30, 2026) on 2026-10-28[2]. In the latest disclosed quarter, 2Q26, consolidated revenue rose 9.3% to Ps. 231.0 billion, operating income rose 7.2% to Ps. 19.11 billion and net income rose 64.9% to Ps. 9.22 billion[3]; OXXO Mexico same-store sales grew 9.5% and store traffic rose 2.0%, its first positive reading in eight quarters[4][5]. On the second-quarter call, management described mid-single-digit same-store sales growth at OXXO Mexico as the most likely baseline for the second half[6]. The Drillr earnings calendar shows a third-quarter estimate of US$1.04 in earnings per ADS and US$12.84 billion in revenue, against second-quarter actuals of US$0.93 and US$13.20 billion[2]; the source does not disclose the number of analysts or the basis, and it recorded an obviously anomalous second-quarter EPS estimate of US$0.0615, so these figures are only a rough reference[2].

Three things matter most in the third-quarter results. The first is whether OXXO Mexico traffic stays positive in a quarter without the World Cup: management estimated that about 60% of the second-quarter traffic uplift came from the tournament and that underlying traffic grew about 1%[5][7], while gross margin fell 70 basis points to 44.8% as the chain cut prices[8], so a return to negative traffic would mean the margin given up bought only temporary visits. The second is whether Coca-Cola FEMSA's Mexican volume stabilizes after the excise tax on sugary drinks nearly doubled: Mexican volume fell about 2.7% in the first quarter and rose 1.0% in the tournament-boosted second quarter[9][10], while operating income in the Mexico & Central America division fell 7.0%[11], and the third quarter will show whether the affordability strategy is defending share or eroding profit. The third is whether Americas & Mobility profit recovers from its low: the consolidation of OXXO Brazil and compressed fuel margins in Mexico cut the division's second-quarter operating income from Ps. 664 million to Ps. 80 million[12][13], and the third-quarter figure will indicate whether that is temporary pressure or a lasting cost of Latin American expansion.

Company Background and Business Structure

FEMSA is a Mexican retail and beverage group that, under its FEMSA Forward strategy, has narrowed its focus to three verticals: retail, Coca-Cola FEMSA and digital solutions[14]. Within that framework it sold non-core assets such as its stake in Jetro Restaurant Depot[14]; after BradyPLUS and Imperial Dade closed their all-equity merger in March 2026, FEMSA kept about 18.75% of the combined entity and accounts for it under the equity method[15]. In February 2026 FEMSA completed the separation of Grupo Nós, its Brazilian joint venture with Raízen, keeping the OXXO stores in Brazil and the Cajamar distribution center in São Paulo while Raízen kept the Shell Select stores[16].

Starting in the second quarter of 2026, FEMSA reports five segments: OXXO Mexico, Americas & Mobility (OXXO operations outside Mexico plus fuel stations in Mexico and the U.S.), Europe, Health and Coca-Cola FEMSA[1]. By second-quarter revenue, OXXO Mexico generated Ps. 86.71 billion, about 37.5% of the consolidated total[8][3]; Coca-Cola FEMSA generated Ps. 76.32 billion, about 33.0%[17]; Americas & Mobility generated Ps. 28.57 billion, about 12.4%[12]; and Health and Europe generated roughly Ps. 22.3 billion and Ps. 14.5 billion, about 9.7% and 6.3%[18]. At June 30, OXXO Mexico had 24,708 stores[4] and Americas & Mobility had 1,953[13]; in digital, Spin by OXXO had 11.5 million active users and the Spin Premia loyalty program had 29.1 million, with an average tender of 50.4% in the quarter[19].

Coca-Cola FEMSA is FEMSA's most important consolidated subsidiary: FEMSA indirectly owns 47.2% of its capital stock (56.0% of the full-voting stock), and The Coca-Cola Company owns 27.8%[20]. Coca-Cola FEMSA produces and distributes Coca-Cola beverages through a Mexico & Central America division (Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua) and a South America division (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Uruguay)[11][21], and sold 1,071.8 million unit cases in the second quarter[17]. Because FEMSA owns less than half of the equity, all of Coca-Cola FEMSA's revenue and profit are consolidated while more than half of the profit belongs to other shareholders, which is why FEMSA reports net debt and leverage on a basis that excludes Coca-Cola FEMSA[22].

Financial History and Current Position

FEMSA's consolidated revenue rose 7.6% to Ps. 840.95 billion in 2025 from Ps. 781.59 billion in 2024[23]. Under the segment structure then in use, Coca-Cola FEMSA revenue was Ps. 291.75 billion (+4.3%), Proximity Americas Ps. 328.84 billion (+7.0%, with average same-store sales up 1.0% and 1,125 net new stores), Health Ps. 88.13 billion (+10.5%), Fuel Ps. 67.20 billion (+2.8%) and Proximity Europe Ps. 57.03 billion (+14.6%)[23]. Consolidated gross profit was Ps. 341.58 billion and gross margin fell 50 basis points to 40.6%[24]. Net income fell from Ps. 40.24 billion in 2024 to Ps. 33.05 billion, mainly because the stronger peso produced a non-cash foreign exchange loss of Ps. 5.75 billion on U.S. dollar cash (against a Ps. 11.93 billion gain in 2024), while net interest expense rose from Ps. 8.09 billion to Ps. 13.64 billion[25].

Operating performance in 2Q26 was better than the headline change in net income alone would suggest. Consolidated revenue rose 9.3% to Ps. 231.0 billion, or 10.1% on a comparable basis that excludes OXXO Brazil and currency effects; gross margin was 40.1%, down 60 basis points[3], but Europe and Health had reclassified distribution expenses into cost of goods sold, and excluding that change gross margin fell only 20 basis points[26]. Operating income was Ps. 19.11 billion (+7.2%, comparable +11.7%), Adjusted EBITDA Ps. 33.34 billion (+12.7%) and net income Ps. 9.22 billion (+64.9%)[3]; the effective tax rate was 34.8%, above the 30% statutory rate, mainly because of non-deductible expenses at OXXO Mexico and Health and non-creditable losses at Spin and other units[26]. First-half net income was Ps. 26.87 billion including a one-time gain from the BradyPLUS merger in the first quarter; excluding it, net income was Ps. 14.92 billion, up 2.7%, and the non-cash FX loss shrank from Ps. 3.66 billion to Ps. 1.10 billion[27].

Changes in the balance sheet came mainly from capital returns. At June 30, 2026, excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA, cash and investments were Ps. 73.59 billion, total debt Ps. 163.54 billion and net debt Ps. 90.02 billion, for net debt to Adjusted EBITDA of 1.15x, up from 0.93x a year earlier[22]; the ratio was down from 1.24x at the end of the first quarter, and management kept its 1.15-1.25x target range[28][29]. Over the last twelve months FEMSA paid Ps. 45.50 billion in ordinary and extraordinary dividends and repurchased Ps. 10.35 billion of stock[22], and on June 24 it completed a US$300 million accelerated share repurchase covering about 2.6 million ADSs at an average US$117.47[30]. Second-quarter capital expenditure was Ps. 8.87 billion, 3.8% of revenue and down 3.6%, and first-half capex was Ps. 15.07 billion, down 16.2%[22][31]; the quarterly materials do not break out operating cash flow.

Operating Model

FEMSA's consolidated revenue breaks down into the volume and price of its five segments[1]. OXXO Mexico revenue equals store count times same-store sales per store plus the contribution of new stores; same-store sales in turn split into traffic and ticket, and in 2Q26 the average store handled about 17,200 transactions a month at an average ticket of Ps. 64.1, up 2.0% and 7.4%[32]. Coca-Cola FEMSA revenue is volume by country times price per unit case, which was Ps. 69.27 in the Mexico & Central America division in the second quarter[33]; Americas & Mobility combines Latin American OXXO merchandise sales with fuel station sales, and fuel and other sales of Ps. 21.89 billion made up most of the division's revenue[12]. When the peso strengthens, revenue from operations outside Mexico shrinks on translation, so FEMSA also reports comparable growth that excludes acquisitions and currency effects[34].

Operating income equals each segment's gross profit minus operating expenses, and segment margins differ widely. OXXO Mexico earns gross profit from merchandise spreads, commercial income from key suppliers and financial services; in the second quarter its gross margin was 44.8% and operating margin 10.0%, and its Ps. 8.65 billion of operating income was about 45% of the group's Ps. 19.11 billion[4][8][3]. Coca-Cola FEMSA's gross margin depends on sweetener, PET and aluminum costs and currency, and reached 47.1% with a 14.0% operating margin[17]; Americas & Mobility and Health earned operating margins of only 0.3% and 1.5%[12][35]. Below operating income, non-cash FX results on dollar cash, net interest expense and a high effective tax rate determine net income[27], and more than half of Coca-Cola FEMSA's profit belongs to other shareholders[20].

Cash and the lags between drivers determine when profit changes appear. Excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA, cash comes mainly from retail operating profit and goes to store-led capital expenditure, interest, taxes and shareholder distributions, and FEMSA manages leverage on net debt to Adjusted EBITDA excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA[22]; in September it issued CHF 300 million of five-year senior unsecured bonds at a 1.73% yield to improve its cost of debt[36]. Price and assortment changes show up in traffic and gross margin within the same quarter, while the beverage excise tax that took effect on January 1, 2026 has affected Coca-Cola FEMSA's Mexican volume and pricing since the first quarter[37]; OXXO Brazil has been consolidated since February 1, 2026, and management says it needs a few more years to reach profitability, so its losses will keep flowing into segment profit in the meantime[13][38].

Industry and Competitive Position

OXXO's core advantage is scale and store density: FEMSA says its convenience business is the largest small-format chain in Latin America by store count, with 24,297 OXXO stores in Mexico alone at the end of 2025[39]. In impulse categories such as cigarettes, soft drinks and beer, management says OXXO's prices are already balanced, that cold product and convenience justify small price differentials, and that it does not plan further cuts beyond adding value brands; in daily replenishment categories, where its share is low, it plans to price aggressively against traditional trade and discounters[40][38]. Management also acknowledged that consumers have shifted toward value, and it now puts long-term operating income growth ahead of maximizing gross margin[40].

Competitive pressure in beverages and pharmacies comes from different directions. Coca-Cola FEMSA's brands come from The Coca-Cola Company, which also owns 27.8% of its capital stock[20]; in 2025 Coca-Cola FEMSA's total volume fell 1.8% to 4,150.4 million unit cases, mainly because of declines in Mexico, Colombia and Panama[41]. The Health segment faces intense competition in Chile, where it stepped up promotions in the second quarter and gross margin came under pressure[35]. The company's disclosures lack comparable competitor financials, so OXXO's share and margin gaps against other channels cannot be quantified.

Core Debates

OXXO Mexico's store traffic rose 2.0% in the second quarter, the first increase in eight quarters, but about 60% of the uplift came from the World Cup and gross margin fell 70 basis points. Without the tournament in the third quarter, can traffic bought with lower prices hold?

This question decides the direction of FEMSA's profit core. OXXO Mexico earned Ps. 8.65 billion of operating income in the second quarter, about 45% of the group total[8][3]; yet traffic fell 1.5% in 2024[42] and stayed negative in 2025, when growth relied mainly on ticket and new stores[43]. In the first quarter of 2026 traffic still fell 0.5% while ticket rose 6.6%, a large part of which reflected pass-through of new taxes on cigarettes, soft drinks and beer[44][45]. FEMSA chose to add low-price SKUs and value packs and trade gross margin for traffic, and whether that trade pays off depends on whether traffic and operating margin both hold in a quarter without the tournament[40].

The second quarter produced the first positive evidence, but it was mixed with one-off effects. OXXO Mexico same-store sales grew 9.5%, with traffic up 2.0% and ticket up 7.4%; revenue rose 11.8% to Ps. 86.71 billion and operating income rose 12.3% to Ps. 8.65 billion, a 10.0% margin[8][4]. FEMSA said the traffic improvement was broad-based across regions and that market share recovered in soft drinks, cigarettes, beer and snacks, while it also benefited from the World Cup and sales of Panini stickers[4]. Management estimated that about 60% of the uplift came from the World Cup and that, excluding it, traffic grew about 1% and ticket 6.2%[5][7], and it said post-tournament trading through mid-July was stronger than expected[46]. An alternative reading is that the second-quarter rebound was mainly short-term visits driven by the event and that the strategy shift contributed only about one percentage point; if third-quarter traffic turns negative while ticket growth stays above 6%, same-store growth would come mainly from price rather than returning customers.

The financial transmission is direct. Low-price SKUs and price rationalization in core categories, along with changes in prepared food, coffee and daily replenishment, act first on traffic and ticket and then flow into OXXO Mexico revenue through same-store sales across 24,708 stores[4][5]. The price investment lowered gross margin to 44.8% in the second quarter, down 70 basis points, after a 140-basis-point expansion to 46.2% in the first quarter[8][47]; operating expenses grew 9.6%, below revenue growth, and with support from services and supplier commercial income the operating margin still rose 10 basis points[4]. Management said the key supplier commercial income that supported second-quarter gross margin will remain in place through the second half[46], but the call also flagged that higher minimum wages and more in-store staff will lift operating expenses[48].

What remains unresolved is how much of the traffic improvement survives the tournament. In the third quarter the key observations are whether same-store traffic stays positive (the second-quarter baseline excluding the World Cup was about +1%)[7], whether same-store sales land at or above management's mid-single-digit baseline, meaning no lower than 4%[6], how much of ticket growth still comes from tax pass-through, whether the gross margin decline is no worse than 70 basis points, and whether operating margin is flat or higher year over year. Negative third-quarter traffic would indicate that the second-quarter improvement came mainly from the World Cup; a wider gross margin decline combined with a lower operating margin would indicate that the price investment did not buy enough operating leverage.

After Mexico nearly doubled its excise tax on sugary drinks, Coca-Cola FEMSA's Mexican volume fell 2.7% in the first quarter and rose 1.0% in the World Cup-boosted second quarter, while the division's operating income fell 7.0%. Can volume and margins stabilize in the third quarter?

This question concerns FEMSA's second-largest revenue source. Coca-Cola FEMSA generated Ps. 76.32 billion of revenue in the second quarter, about a third of FEMSA's consolidated total[17][3], and Mexico is its largest single market, with 544.8 million unit cases in the quarter, more than half of the 1,071.8 million total[9][17]. From January 1, 2026, Mexico raised its excise tax on beverages with added sugar from Ps. 1.6451 to Ps. 3.0818 per liter and introduced a new Ps. 1.50 per liter tax on drinks with non-caloric sweeteners, with inflation indexing from 2027[37]. A higher tax can either depress volume or force the bottler to absorb it through price, and both paths ultimately reach division profit.

Coca-Cola FEMSA as a whole had a solid second quarter, but the growth came from South America rather than Mexico. Total volume rose 3.5%, revenue rose 4.7% and operating income rose 9.1% to Ps. 10.65 billion[17]; the South America division grew volume 6.9%, with Colombia up 17.7% and Brazil up 5.2%, and its operating income rose 46.5%[21]. The Mexico & Central America division moved the other way: volume rose 1.4%, revenue rose only 0.3% to Ps. 45.45 billion and the average price per unit case fell 1.6% to Ps. 69.27[11][33]; lower sweetener and PET costs lifted gross margin 170 basis points to 48.9%, but marketing and freight pushed operating expenses up 9.1% and division operating income fell 7.0% to Ps. 6.35 billion[11]. The company said affordability, segmentation and execution strengthened its competitive position in Mexico[49]; an alternative reading is that the return to volume growth in Mexico was driven mainly by the World Cup and that the affordability strategy is simply trading price for volume, in which case a return to negative volume in the third quarter alongside a fading raw-material tailwind would deepen the division's profit decline.

The numbers show a sharp difference in Mexican volume before and during the tournament. First-half Mexican volume was 996.4 million unit cases, down 0.7%[10], which implies about 451.6 million in the first quarter, down roughly 2.7%, against a 1.0% increase in the second quarter[9]. The transmission chain runs as follows: after the tax increase, the company absorbed part of it through affordable packs, segmentation and execution, and price per unit case fell 1.6% in the second quarter and 1.0% in the first half to Ps. 70.00[33]; volume drives division revenue, lower raw-material costs and stronger currencies lift gross margin, marketing and freight offset part of that gain, and the division ended with a 14.0% operating margin, down 110 basis points, and Adjusted EBITDA of Ps. 8.96 billion, roughly flat[11].

What remains unresolved is whether volume stabilizes after the tournament and whether the raw-material tailwind can keep covering price concessions and marketing spend. In the third quarter the tests are whether Mexican volume is at least flat year over year, whether the division's price per unit case declines by no more than the second quarter's 1.6%[33], whether lower sweetener and PET costs still support gross margin, and whether the year-over-year decline in division operating margin narrows to within 110 basis points[11]. A renewed decline in Mexican volume would show that excise-tax pressure on demand has returned after the tournament; an operating margin decline wider than 110 basis points would show that price concessions and marketing are eroding profit.

After OXXO Brazil was consolidated, Americas & Mobility's second-quarter operating income fell from Ps. 664 million to Ps. 80 million as Mexican fuel margins were also squeezed. Can profit recover in the third quarter, and is Latin American expansion still on plan?

This question decides whether FEMSA's growth investment outside Mexico is diluting profit or starting to contribute. Latin American OXXO is the company's main growth platform beyond Mexico, but new markets absorb losses first, and OXXO Brazil has been fully consolidated since February 1, 2026, so its losses go straight into segment operating income[13]. The same segment includes fuel stations in Mexico and the U.S., a large-revenue, low-margin business whose fuel and other gross margin was about 11.1% in the second quarter against about 12.6% a year earlier[12], so a small change in unit margin can offset store improvements.

Segment revenue grew in the second quarter, but profit nearly disappeared. Revenue rose 17.4% to Ps. 28.57 billion (comparable +11.6%), with fuel and other sales up 9.3% and merchandise sales up 55.6% to Ps. 6.67 billion (comparable +16.5%); fuel and other gross profit fell 4.1% to Ps. 2.42 billion; and operating income fell from Ps. 664 million a year earlier to Ps. 80 million, down 29.0% on a comparable basis[12]. FEMSA attributed the decline to the inclusion of OXXO Brazil's losses and to fuel margin compression in Mexico from diesel price commitments and higher fuel costs, partly offset by better store operations in Chile, Peru and Colombia[13]. For comparison, the segment earned Ps. 281 million in the first quarter and fuel gross profit rose 18.8%[50], which shows how volatile fuel margins are from quarter to quarter. An alternative reading is that the second-quarter fuel squeeze came from temporary price commitments and that any third-quarter recovery would come mainly from fuel rather than stores; because the segment does not break out Brazil's losses, a profit recovery would not by itself prove that Brazilian store economics have improved.

Store expansion offers a second line of evidence. At June 30 the segment had 1,953 stores after adding a net 11 in the quarter[13], up from 1,942 at the end of the first quarter[51]; at the end of 2025 there were 597 OXXO stores in Colombia[39] and 607 in Brazil[16]. On the second-quarter call, management said both OXXO Colombia and OXXO Brazil should reach about 700 stores by the end of 2026, with Colombia accelerating openings after refining its model[29]; each new cohort of Brazilian stores has outperformed the previous one, but the business needs a few more years to reach profitability before expansion accelerates[38]. Financially, consolidating Brazil raises merchandise sales and merchandise gross profit while store losses and capability building raise operating expenses, and fuel margin compression directly reduces segment gross profit; together they set segment operating income[13].

What remains unresolved is whether the profit low has passed and whether Latin American expansion is on plan. In the third quarter the tests are whether segment operating income rises above Ps. 80 million (it was Ps. 281 million in the first quarter)[12][50], whether fuel and other gross profit stops declining year over year, whether comparable merchandise sales growth stays at or above 16.5%, and whether store counts in Colombia and Brazil keep moving toward roughly 700 each by year-end[29]. Third-quarter segment operating income below Ps. 80 million, or a loss, would show that Brazilian losses or fuel compression are widening; a cut to the Latin American store targets would show that store economics have not yet reached the point that justifies faster expansion.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk comes from the Health segment's institutional business in Colombia. Funding gaps in Colombia's health system have left some health insurers (EPS) facing payment problems, and FEMSA recorded a Ps. 408 million non-cash credit-risk provision in the second quarter tied to unwinding that institutional business, with management warning of further write-downs if counterparty risk materializes[35][52]. Partly because of this and higher labor costs in Colombia, Health generated about Ps. 22.3 billion of second-quarter revenue[18] while its operating income fell 57.7% and its operating margin dropped from 3.7% to 1.5%[35]. If Health records no new provision related to the Colombian institutional business in the third quarter and its operating margin returns to around 3.7%, this risk has not materialized further.

The second risk is the balance between capital returns and leverage. Over the last twelve months FEMSA paid Ps. 45.50 billion in dividends and bought back Ps. 10.35 billion of stock, and net debt to Adjusted EBITDA excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA rose from 0.93x a year earlier to 1.15x, with net debt of Ps. 90.02 billion and cash and investments of Ps. 73.59 billion[22]; management plans about Ps. 41 billion of capital distributions across 2026-2027[28], and in September FEMSA signed a new accelerated share repurchase of up to US$280 million with final settlement scheduled before year-end 2026[53]. These distributions depend on operating cash and borrowing, while a stronger peso keeps generating non-cash FX losses on dollar cash, which totaled Ps. 5.75 billion in 2025[25]. If net debt to Adjusted EBITDA excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA is no higher than 1.15x in the third quarter, the pace of capital returns remains within what operations can cover.

The third risk is weak Mexican consumption combined with rising labor costs. FEMSA warns in its annual report that an economic slowdown can reduce both store traffic and average ticket[54], and the second-quarter call noted rising labor costs in Mexico and said that extra staffing to improve in-store service could lift operating expenses in the near term[48]. OXXO Mexico's operating expenses grew 9.6% in the second quarter at a 10.0% operating margin[4], so if traffic falls back after prices have already been cut, the margin would be squeezed from both sides. Positive third-quarter traffic with a flat or higher operating margin would mean this risk has not materialized.

The fourth risk is the lasting effect of Mexico's beverage excise tax. The tax on sugary drinks nearly doubled in 2026 and will be indexed to the prior year's inflation from 2027[37]; if Coca-Cola FEMSA keeps absorbing the tax through lower prices, the Mexico & Central America division's pricing and margin would stay under pressure, after the division posted Ps. 45.45 billion of second-quarter revenue, Ps. 6.35 billion of operating income and a 1.6% decline in price per unit case[11][33]. If Mexican volume is at least flat in the third quarter and the division's operating margin decline narrows, the company will have found a balance between volume and price.

The fifth risk is Latin American expansion combined with fuel price constraints. Management says OXXO Brazil needs a few more years to reach profitability, so expansion will widen losses first[38][52]; diesel price commitments in Mexico limit FEMSA's ability to pass higher fuel costs to consumers, and Americas & Mobility earned only Ps. 80 million in the second quarter, a 0.3% margin, with fuel and other gross profit of Ps. 2.42 billion[13][12]. If third-quarter segment operating income is at least the first quarter's Ps. 281 million[50] and fuel gross profit stops declining, this risk is easing.

What to Watch Next

• OXXO Mexico traffic: second-quarter same-store traffic rose 2.0%, or about 1% excluding the World Cup[4][7]. Positive traffic in a quarter without the tournament would support the strategy; negative traffic would point to the World Cup as the main driver.
• OXXO Mexico sales and ticket: same-store sales rose 9.5% and ticket 7.4%[4]. Watch for same-store sales of at least 4% and for how much ticket growth is tax pass-through; negative traffic with ticket growth above 6% would mean growth is mostly price.
• OXXO Mexico margins: gross margin was 44.8% (down 70 basis points) and operating margin 10.0%[8]. A wider gross margin decline together with a lower operating margin would show the price investment did not buy operating leverage.
• Coca-Cola FEMSA Mexican volume: up 1.0% in the second quarter after a roughly 2.7% first-quarter decline[9][10]. Volume below 0% would show excise-tax pressure returning after the tournament.
• Coca-Cola FEMSA Mexico & Central America pricing and margin: Ps. 69.27 per unit case (down 1.6%) and a 14.0% operating margin (down 110 basis points)[33][11]. A margin decline wider than 110 basis points would show price concessions and marketing eroding profit.
• Americas & Mobility profit: Ps. 80 million of operating income against Ps. 281 million in the first quarter[12][50]. Profit below Ps. 80 million or a loss would show Brazilian losses or fuel compression widening.
• Americas & Mobility expansion: targets of about 700 stores each in Colombia and Brazil by year-end[29]. A lowered target would show store economics are not yet ready for faster expansion.
• Health operating margin: 1.5% against 3.7% a year earlier[35]. A return toward 3.7% with no new Colombian provision would show the risk has not deepened.
• Leverage: net debt to Adjusted EBITDA excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA of 1.15x[22]. A further rise would show capital returns outrunning operating coverage.

Conclusion

FEMSA's results turn on three things: the traffic-versus-margin trade at OXXO Mexico, Coca-Cola FEMSA's volume and pricing in Mexico, and whether Latin American OXXO and the fuel business can recover from low profitability. In 2Q26 the group earned Ps. 231.0 billion of revenue and Ps. 19.11 billion of operating income, up 9.3% and 7.2%[3], with net debt to Adjusted EBITDA excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA at 1.15x[22]. The central unresolved relationship is that OXXO Mexico gave up 70 basis points of gross margin to gain 2.0% traffic growth[8][4], yet about 60% of that uplift came from the World Cup[5], and there is not yet data to show whether the trade still works in a third quarter without the tournament.

Between the second-quarter release on 2026-07-28 and 2026-10-22, the search for independent commentary turned up only results summaries and company announcements; none was a signed, verifiable outside view offering a substantive judgment on the three debates above. The analysis therefore rests only on company disclosures and management statements, and management's optimism about second-half same-store sales and gross margin should be read as the company's own position rather than an independently verified conclusion[6][46].

The combination that would materially strengthen the current understanding is this: positive OXXO Mexico traffic in the third quarter with a flat or higher operating margin, Coca-Cola FEMSA Mexican volume at or above 0% with a narrower decline in division margin, Americas & Mobility operating income back above Ps. 80 million[12], and leverage excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA no higher than 1.15x[22]. Conversely, negative traffic with a further fall in gross margin, a renewed decline in Mexican beverage volume, or a new Colombian provision at Health would make the second-quarter improvement look more like the sum of the tournament and one-off factors than a change in the operating model.

Sources

[1] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · reporting segment update · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[2] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-21) · FMX 2026-10-28 Q3 2026 estimates · 2026-10-21 · Drillr earnings calendar · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[3] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · consolidated financial summary and net debt · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[4] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · OXXO Mexico 2Q26 traffic, ticket and margin discussion · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[5] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · World Cup share of the traffic uplift · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[6] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · OXXO Mexico second-half same-store sales outlook · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · underlying traffic excluding World Cup · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · OXXO Mexico 2Q26 financial summary · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[9] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Coca-Cola FEMSA volume by country 2Q26 · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[10] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Coca-Cola FEMSA volume by country YTD 2026 · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[11] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Coca-Cola FEMSA Mexico & Central America division 2Q26 · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[12] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Americas & Mobility 2Q26 financial summary · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[13] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Americas & Mobility 2Q26 discussion and Bara · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[14] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · FEMSA Forward focus on retail, Coca-Cola FEMSA and digital · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[15] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · BradyPLUS and Imperial Dade merger · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[16] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · Grupo Nós separation and OXXO Brazil · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[17] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Coca-Cola FEMSA 2Q26 consolidated results · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[18] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · fuel gross margin · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[19] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Spin by OXXO and Spin Premia 2Q26 · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[20] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · Coca-Cola FEMSA ownership · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[21] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Coca-Cola FEMSA South America division 2Q26 · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[22] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · net debt, capital returns and capex · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[23] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · 2025 consolidated and divisional revenues · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[24] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · 2025 consolidated gross profit and expenses · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[25] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · 2025 consolidated net income and FX loss · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[26] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · consolidated revenue, margin and net income discussion · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[27] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · 1H26 consolidated summary · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[28] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · capital distributions and leverage target · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[29] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · OXXO Colombia and Brazil store targets · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[30] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · completed March 2026 ASR · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[31] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · 1H26 capex and taxes · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[32] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · OXXO Mexico 2Q26 store and same-store data · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[33] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Mexico & Central America price per unit case 2Q26 · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[34] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · definition of comparable · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[35] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Health 2Q26 results and Colombia provision · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[36] FMX 6-K filed 2026-09-23 (Swiss franc bond) · CHF 300 million bond · 2026-09-23 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026063236/a6kcristales23sept2026.htm

[37] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · Mexico beverage excise tax 2026 · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[38] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Q&A: OXXO Brazil path to profitability · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[39] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · OXXO store base at year-end 2025 · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[40] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Q&A: price-pack architecture versus gross margin · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[41] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · Coca-Cola FEMSA 2025 revenues · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[42] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · 2024 OXXO traffic and ticket · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[43] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · 2025 Proximity Americas same-store sales and traffic · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm

[44] FMX 6-K filed 2026-04-30 (1Q26 results) · OXXO Mexico 1Q26 results · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926052276/tm2613197d1_ex99-1.htm

[45] FMX earnings call 2026-04-30 (1Q26 results) · Q&A: ticket growth and tax pass-through · 2026-04-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[46] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Q&A: supplier commercial income in the second half · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[47] FMX 6-K filed 2026-04-30 (1Q26 results) · OXXO Mexico 1Q26 financial summary · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926052276/tm2613197d1_ex99-1.htm

[48] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · labor cost risk · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[49] FMX 6-K filed 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · Coca-Cola FEMSA management commentary on Mexico · 2026-07-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926087338/tm2621462d1_ex99-1.htm

[50] FMX 6-K filed 2026-04-30 (1Q26 results) · Americas & Mobility 1Q26 financial table · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926052276/tm2613197d1_ex99-1.htm

[51] FMX 6-K filed 2026-04-30 (1Q26 results) · Americas & Mobility 1Q26 financial summary · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000110465926052276/tm2613197d1_ex99-1.htm

[52] FMX earnings call 2026-07-28 (2Q26 results) · management-stated risks · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[53] FMX 6-K filed 2026-09-14 (accelerated share repurchase) · new ASR of up to US$280 million · 2026-09-14 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026061700/a6kasrprsept2026.htm

[54] FMX 20-F filed 2026-04-24 · consumer slowdown risk to traffic and ticket · 2026-04-24 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061736/000162828026027231/fmx-20251231.htm