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[AEE] Ameren: Q3 2026 Earnings Test Missouri Summer Profit and the Capital Plan

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Summary

Ameren earned $2.41 diluted EPS in the first half of 2026 against $5.25-$5.45 guidance; Q3 2026 earnings test whether Missouri summer profit can grow without a new rate step.

Ameren is a utility holding company that runs regulated electric, natural gas distribution and transmission businesses in Missouri and Illinois[1], and its Q3 2026 earnings are scheduled for 2026-11-06, covering the third quarter 2026, the three months ended September 30, 2026, with a conference call[2]. In the latest reported quarter, the second quarter of 2026, consolidated operating revenue was $2.092 billion versus $2.221 billion a year earlier, net income attributable to common shareholders was $314 million, and diluted EPS was $1.13 versus $1.01; first-half diluted EPS reached $2.41 versus $2.08[3]. The revenue decline came mainly from a $333 million drop in Ameren Missouri off-system sales and fuel-adjustment revenue, which moved together with lower fuel and purchased power costs[4]. On July 30, 2026, Ameren reaffirmed 2026 diluted EPS guidance of $5.25 to $5.45[5] and said the range assumes normal temperatures in the second half[6], which leaves $2.84 to $3.04 for the last six months after the $2.41 already earned. As of November 4, 2026, the Drillr compilation showed five analysts averaging $2.29 for third-quarter diluted EPS (range $2.25 to $2.33), four analysts averaging $2.823 billion for third-quarter revenue, and eight analysts averaging $5.40 for full-year 2026 EPS[7].

Three things matter most in these results. The first is whether Ameren Missouri can keep summer earnings growing without a new rate step: Missouri contributed $747 million of the consolidated $1.456 billion of 2025 net income attributable to common shareholders[8], the rate increase effective June 2025 is already in last year's base[9], the next rate change is not due until June 2027[10], and Missouri's other operations and maintenance expense rose $44 million year over year in the second quarter[11]. The second is whether the formula-priced Illinois distribution and transmission businesses keep pace with rate base growth: in the second quarter, Ameren Transmission net income rose 11.6% and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution rose 9.4%[12], and the third quarter tests whether this weather-insensitive growth continues. The third is the planned update of the sales forecast, capital plan, financing plan and long-term earnings growth expectations on this call[13]; against a current 2026-2030 capital plan midpoint of $31.8 billion[14] and about $4 billion of planned equity financing[15], the relative size of new investment and new equity will decide whether data-center demand turns into per-share earnings growth.

Company Background and Business Structure

Ameren is a holding company whose main assets are its equity stakes in subsidiaries, organized into four reporting segments[1]. Ameren Missouri is a vertically integrated utility with generation, transmission, distribution and natural gas distribution in Missouri; its owned plants include the coal-fired Labadie and Sioux energy centers[16], and 350 megawatts of new solar generation entered service in 2026, one month ahead of schedule[17]. Ameren Illinois is split into electric distribution, natural gas and transmission, and its Illinois transmission business is combined with ATXI, which operates in the MISO region, to form the Ameren Transmission segment[1].

Ameren Missouri is the largest source of earnings and revenue, but the other three segments together contribute close to half of earnings. In 2025, net income attributable to common shareholders was $747 million at Ameren Missouri, $415 million at Ameren Transmission, $281 million at Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution and $158 million at Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, while the parent and other activities lost $145 million, for a total of $1.456 billion[8]. Missouri's 2025 operating revenue of $4.795 billion was 54.5% of the consolidated $8.799 billion, although segment revenue includes fuel and purchased power costs passed through to customers and is useful only as a measure of scale.

Each segment uses a different pricing mechanism, which determines how sensitive its earnings are to weather and costs. Ameren Missouri uses historical test-year ratemaking, and its fuel adjustment clause (FAC) passes 95% of the difference between actual net energy costs and the amount in base rates through to customers[18], but sales volumes and weather still affect its earnings directly; Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution uses future test-year ratemaking under a multi-year rate plan (MYRP) with a revenue balancing adjustment (RBA) that decouples revenue from sales volumes and an allowed ROE of 8.72%; Ameren Transmission uses FERC formula rates with an allowed ROE of 10.48%; and Ameren Illinois Natural Gas uses future test-year ratemaking with an allowed ROE of 9.60%[19]. Gas earnings are concentrated in winter: Illinois gas earned $131 million in the first half of 2026, of which only $9 million came in the second quarter[11].

The customer base is changing because of large-load users, and the parent also holds equity-method investments. Google and Amazon have broken ground on data centers in Ameren Missouri's territory with a combined planned investment of $25 billion, and both are part of the 2.8 gigawatts of signed electric service agreements (ESAs)[20]; these large-load customers are subject to terms that include a 12-year service term and minimum demand charges of 80% of contracted capacity[21]. At the parent level, equity-method investments in innovative energy technology swung from a loss to a gain in the first half of 2026 and added 9 cents to EPS[16].

Financial History and Current Position

Ameren grew revenue and earnings markedly in fiscal 2025. Consolidated operating revenue rose from $7.623 billion in 2024 to $8.799 billion in 2025, made up of $7.668 billion of electric revenue and $1.131 billion of gas revenue, and 2025 operating income was $2.026 billion[8]. Net income attributable to common shareholders rose from $1.182 billion in 2024 ($4.42 per share) to $1.456 billion in 2025 ($5.35 per share), an increase of $274 million, or 93 cents per share[22].

The 2025 increase came mainly from rates, taxes and weather. Ameren disclosed that new Ameren Missouri rates effective June 2025 added 42 cents per share, the TCJA-related revaluation of deferred tax liabilities added 32 cents, higher sales from a warmer July and a colder winter added an estimated 22 cents, and rate base growth at transmission and Illinois distribution added 14 cents[22]. The tax benefit and the weather effect do not naturally repeat, which makes the 2026 comparison more dependent on investment returns.

Ameren's operating cash flow has long fallen short of its investment, and outside financing fills the gap. In 2025, operating cash flow was $3.353 billion against capital expenditures of $4.128 billion; in 2024, operating cash flow was $2.763 billion against capital expenditures of $4.319 billion[23]. In the first half of 2026, operating cash flow was $1.191 billion versus $1.293 billion a year earlier, and capital expenditures were $2.653 billion versus $2.130 billion[24]; one of the main reasons for the lower operating cash flow was a $223 million decrease in production and investment tax credit transfers to unrelated parties at Ameren Missouri[25].

Earnings kept growing in the first two quarters of 2026 while the balance sheet expanded with investment. First-quarter diluted EPS was $1.28 versus $1.07[26]; first-half operating revenue was $4.268 billion, slightly below $4.318 billion a year earlier, net income attributable to common shareholders was $671 million, and weighted-average diluted shares rose from 271.5 million to 278.6 million[3]. At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $19.064 billion (versus $18.214 billion at the end of 2025), current maturities of long-term debt were $1.524 billion, short-term debt was $1.220 billion (versus $643 million at the end of 2025), and shareholders' equity was $13.687 billion[24].

Operating Model

Ameren's consolidated revenue is the sum of four segment-level pricing formulas, but a change in revenue does not necessarily mean a change in profit. Missouri electric revenue equals retail volumes multiplied by approved rates, plus off-system sales and capacity revenue, adjusted through the FAC; Illinois distribution revenue equals the MYRP revenue requirement plus passed-through purchased power costs; and transmission revenue recovers costs and returns under the FERC formula[19]. In 2025, segment electric revenue was $4.631 billion at Missouri, $2.399 billion at Illinois distribution and $862 million at transmission[8]. In the second quarter of 2026, Missouri off-system sales and FAC-related revenue fell $333 million[4], while consolidated fuel and purchased power costs fell from $794 million to $507 million[3], so this kind of revenue swing has almost no effect on profit.

Earnings growth depends on each segment's rate base growth and the return it actually earns, and Missouri bears the most cost between rate reviews. The PISA mechanism lets Missouri defer 85% of depreciation on qualifying assets and earn a return at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) on 85% of the related rate base[27], and construction work in progress earns an allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC); these amounts move into base rates only after a rate review, while operations and maintenance, the remaining 15% of depreciation and weather variances hit current earnings directly. In the second quarter of 2026, consolidated operating income was $459 million (versus $411 million), other income was $118 million, interest charges were $209 million, and net income attributable to common shareholders was $314 million[3].

The transmission chain is shorter for Illinois distribution and transmission, where the revenue requirement rises with rate base. Capital spending expands rate base, rate base lifts the formula-rate or MYRP revenue requirement, and that becomes segment net income; the ICC's December 2024 order approved Illinois distribution revenue requirements of $1.206 billion, $1.287 billion, $1.367 billion and $1.421 billion for 2024 through 2027[28]. In the second quarter, base-rate revenue rose $27 million at Illinois distribution and $21 million at transmission[4]. Differences between actual costs and forecasts are recovered through an annual reconciliation, and the ICC must decide the 2025 reconciliation adjustment by December 2026, with any approved amount collected from customers in 2027[29].

Operating cash flow does not cover capital spending and dividends, so Ameren keeps filling the gap with subsidiary debt, parent debt and common equity. Operating cash flow roughly equals net income plus depreciation and amortization, adjusted for regulatory deferrals, the timing of FAC recovery, tax credit transfers and working capital. In the first half of 2026, Ameren Missouri issued $1.395 billion of long-term debt and received a $425 million capital contribution from the parent[30]; the parent had sold forward $1.2 billion of common stock under its at-the-market (ATM) program in 2026 through the July call[31], and it issued $900 million of junior subordinated notes in September[32].

Industry and Competitive Position

Ameren is a large regulated electric and gas utility in the US Midwest, with growth coming from three directions. The first is grid modernization in Missouri, where the Smart Energy Plan calls for about $20.8 billion of investment from 2026 through 2030, largely recoverable under PISA[28]; the second is Missouri's large-load customers, with signed ESAs representing 2.8 gigawatts of demand and construction agreements, including those ESAs, representing 3.4 gigawatts[33]; the third is MISO long-range transmission planning, where Ameren won development rights for all competitive Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 projects in its Illinois service territory and said its identified investment opportunity through 2035 now exceeds $71 billion[17].

Compared with other regulated utilities, Ameren's regulatory structure brings both advantages and weaknesses. Missouri uses historical test-year ratemaking[19] and relies mainly on PISA deferrals of depreciation and return to reduce regulatory lag[27], rather than putting investment into rates in advance as a future test year would; Illinois distribution's allowed ROE of 8.72% is well below transmission's 10.48%[19], and Ameren has appealed the ICC decision[28]. The large-load tariff also includes an earnings sharing mechanism: if Missouri's earned ROE exceeds 9.74% in a year, 65% of the excess must be deferred and later returned to customers[21].

Competition among regulated utilities happens mainly in regulatory approvals and transmission project bids rather than in retail market share. Ameren already has a record of winning competitive MISO transmission projects and has submitted joint bids for two Iowa-based Tranche 2.1 projects, with results expected in November 2026[17]. Because comparable peer financial data on the same basis are not available, the comparison here is limited to differences in allowed returns and pricing mechanisms across Ameren's own segments and cannot place its costs or returns relative to peers.

Core Debates

Ameren Missouri's June 2025 rate increase is already in the base, so this summer quarter has no new rate step. Can investment returns alone keep peak-season earnings growing?

This question matters because Missouri's third quarter largely decides whether Ameren meets its full-year guidance. Ameren Missouri earned $747 million of net income attributable to common shareholders in 2025, 51% of the consolidated $1.456 billion, and its operating revenue of $4.795 billion was 54.5% of the consolidated $8.799 billion[8]. The third quarter is Missouri's summer-rate and peak-demand season; according to the company's November 2025 disclosure, Missouri earned $518 million in the third quarter of 2025, about 69% of its full-year earnings, so this quarter has the largest effect on the $5.25 to $5.45 full-year EPS guidance[5].

First-half data show that Missouri's growth relied on both investment returns and the previous rate case, while costs and weather held it back. Missouri earned $233 million in the first half versus $192 million a year earlier[11], an increase of $41 million; among the drivers Ameren disclosed, the inclusion of PISA-related interest in base rates and higher AFUDC added 15 cents per share, rates effective June 2025 added 12 cents, reliability-related operations and maintenance cost 14 cents, lower sales from a mild winter cost 6 cents, and financing costs cost 4 cents[16]. Missouri's other operations and maintenance expense was $282 million in the second quarter versus $238 million, and $546 million in the first half versus $488 million[11]; second-quarter retail sales were 7,358 million kilowatt-hours, up 2.0%, while first-half retail sales were 15,290 million kilowatt-hours, down 0.8%[34], and trailing 12-month weather-normalized retail sales rose about 1% through June[35]; Missouri capital expenditures were $1.771 billion in the first half versus $1.325 billion, up 34%[30].

The financial transmission runs as follows: once grid and generation investment enters service, PISA defers 85% of depreciation and earns a WACC return, and construction work earns AFUDC, which raise Missouri's revenue and other income; higher reliability spending, depreciation and interest are then subtracted, weather-driven sales variances are added or subtracted, and the result is Missouri net income and Ameren EPS. An alternative reading is that much of the first-half growth came from rates that took effect only in June 2025 and will no longer add year-over-year growth in the third quarter, while the third quarter of 2025 was lifted by a warmer July[22], so normal weather plus higher operations and maintenance could leave Missouri's third-quarter earnings flat or lower. According to the company's November 2025 disclosure, Missouri retail sales were 8,982 million kilowatt-hours in the third quarter of 2025, and the next real rate step does not arrive until June 2027[10], which makes this quarter a test of whether PISA and AFUDC alone can sustain growth.

Four data points matter next: whether Missouri's third-quarter net income is at least $518 million, whether the year-over-year increase in operations and maintenance falls back within $29 million per quarter, whether the decline in retail sales stays within 3%, and whether Missouri's year-to-date capital expenditures reach $2.66 billion through the third quarter. A year-over-year decline in Missouri's third-quarter earnings would show that investment returns cannot cover cost increases and the return to normal weather, and an operations and maintenance increase still above the second quarter's $44 million would also weaken the view that investment returns are enough to sustain summer growth.

Ameren's Illinois distribution and transmission businesses earn formula-based returns that weather does not affect. Can third-quarter earnings keep pace with roughly 10% rate base growth?

These two businesses are the most predictable part of Ameren's earnings and separate investment-driven growth from Missouri's weather and cost noise. Ameren Transmission and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution earned a combined $696 million in 2025 ($415 million plus $281 million), close to Missouri's $747 million[8]. Their revenue is either decoupled from sales volumes through the RBA or recovered through the FERC formula[19], so quarterly earnings mostly reflect changes in rate base and allowed ROE.

Second-quarter results show both businesses growing at close to rate base growth. Ameren Transmission earned $96 million in the second quarter versus $86 million, up 11.6%, and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution earned $70 million versus $64 million, up 9.4%[12]. Transmission electric revenue was $229 million in the second quarter versus $208 million, up 10.1%, and $456 million in the first half versus $418 million, up 9.1%[11]; Illinois distribution base-rate revenue rose $27 million in the second quarter[4]. Ameren attributed the growth of both businesses to the equity return on increased rate base, which added a combined 9 cents per share in the first half[16], and management said the current five-year plan assumes a 10.6% compound annual growth rate in rate base[13].

The financial transmission runs from transmission and distribution capital spending to a larger rate base, from rate base to a higher formula-rate or MYRP revenue requirement that is decoupled from sales volumes, and from there to segment net income and Ameren EPS. An alternative reading is that part of the year-over-year improvement in transmission earnings came from taxes and AFUDC, while Illinois distribution is constrained by its lower 8.72% allowed ROE and the reconciliation cap[19], so if actual costs exceed the cap, earnings growth will trail growth in the revenue requirement. In addition, according to the company's November 2025 disclosure, third-quarter 2025 GAAP transmission earnings of $151 million included a $48 million one-time FERC net operating loss carryforward tax benefit, leaving adjusted earnings of $103 million, and Illinois distribution earned $57 million, so transmission will show a year-over-year GAAP decline and only the adjusted basis reveals the underlying growth rate.

Four data points matter next: whether Ameren Transmission's third-quarter net income is at least $113 million, whether Illinois Electric Distribution's third-quarter net income is at least $61 million, whether transmission revenue growth stays above 9%, and whether the ICC approves the 2025 reconciliation adjustment at $31 million before December[29]. Transmission earnings growth of less than 5% over the adjusted base, or a year-over-year decline in Illinois distribution earnings, would show that formula returns are not keeping pace with rate base growth.

Ameren will update its five-year investment plan on this call. Can the data-center-driven expansion still translate into per-share earnings growth after the added equity?

This call is more likely than the quarterly result to change how the company is understood, because management will update its growth plan and financing plan at the same time. The 10-K put the 2026-2030 capital plan midpoint at $31.8 billion, compared with actual 2025 capital expenditures of $4.1 billion[14], so the plan's annual average is about 1.5 times the 2025 level, with an associated equity need of about $4 billion[15]. Since then, Missouri's signed ESAs have grown from 2.2 gigawatts in February 2026[21] to 2.8 gigawatts at the end of June[33], the integrated resource plan (IRP) filed in September added more gas, storage and solar generation[36], and management has said it will update the sales forecast, capital plan, financing plan and long-term earnings growth expectations with third-quarter results[13].

Current evidence shows EPS still growing faster than the share count, but financing activity has clearly accelerated. First-half diluted EPS of $2.41 was up 15.9%, while weighted-average diluted shares rose 2.6%[3]; Ameren reaffirmed its 2026 guidance of $5.25 to $5.45[5] and said 2026-2030 EPS compound annual growth should be near the upper end of its 6% to 8% range[13]. On financing, Ameren raised its ATM program by $2 billion in August[37], issued $900 million of junior subordinated notes in September[32], and had sold forward $1.2 billion of common stock in 2026 by the time of the second-quarter call[31]. According to the company's November 2025 disclosure, adjusted diluted EPS in the third quarter of 2025 was $2.17 (GAAP was $2.35, with the 18-cent difference being a one-time FERC tax benefit), while the Drillr average for third-quarter EPS is $2.29[7].

The financial transmission runs along two opposing paths: large-load ESAs and new IRP generation push up the capital plan, expand rate base and raise segment earnings, while added debt and equity financing raise interest costs and the share count and pull down diluted EPS. An alternative reading is that equity needs rise in proportion to, or faster than, the capital plan, and that much of the new investment is generation that enters service later, such as the 1,900 megawatts of simple-cycle gas generation the IRP adds by 2029[36] and the 2.1-gigawatt combined-cycle gas plant planned for 2031 service[17], so interest and dilution would arrive before the earnings and EPS growth might not rise with rate base growth. Large-load sales do not ramp materially until the second half of 2027, and management said annual sales should be 60% higher than 2025 levels by the end of 2029[20]; whether that demand materializes depends on customers building on schedule[38].

Four data points matter next: whether third-quarter diluted EPS is at least the $2.29 average, how the new five-year capital plan midpoint compares with $31.8 billion, whether equity financing rises above the original 12.6% of capital spending, and whether signed large-load ESAs exceed 2.8 gigawatts. A higher capital plan paired with a higher equity share and a lower long-term EPS growth target, or a reduction or delay in signed ESAs, would weaken the view that investment expansion can translate into per-share earnings growth.

Risks and Falsifiers

The Missouri rate review and customer affordability are the largest regulatory variables for earnings after 2027. In June 2026, Ameren Missouri requested a $343 million annual increase in electric revenue based on a 10.25% return on common equity, a 52% common equity ratio and a $16.7 billion rate base[39]; the proceeding can take up to 11 months, with a MoPSC decision expected by May 2027 and new rates effective by June 2027[10], and the request also includes projected data-center revenue savings for other customers and a new low-income discount[31]. This risk affects Missouri base rates from June 2027, recovery of PISA deferrals and the return on roughly $20.4 billion to $22.2 billion of Missouri investment planned for 2026 through 2030[14]; the concern would ease if the MoPSC proceeding stays on schedule and the outcome is close to the request while keeping the FAC and existing trackers.

Interest-rate and credit risk rises with investment and falls directly on parent-level earnings. Consolidated interest charges were $413 million in the first half of 2026 versus $362 million, up 14%[3]; in 2025, the parent and other activities had $187 million of interest charges and a net loss of $145 million[8], and financing costs reduced first-half EPS by 4 cents[16]. If S&P and Moody's keep their stable BBB+ and Baa1 credit ratings[31] and interest grows roughly in line with rate base, this risk has not worsened.

Regulatory lag means Missouri must absorb part of its rising costs between rate reviews. PISA covers only 85% of depreciation[27], so the remaining 15% of depreciation and any operations, maintenance and interest increases not covered by trackers fall on Missouri's current earnings; the PPRA also lowered the annual cap on revenue requirement increases that can be included in each rate review from 2.5% to 2.25%[40]. This risk affects Ameren Missouri's net income ($747 million in 2025) and its realized returns before June 2027, and as a rough conversion, every extra $10 million of operations and maintenance reduces Missouri net income by about $7.4 million; the concern would not hold if Missouri's third-quarter earnings rise year over year, the operations and maintenance increase falls back and the $343 million rate request proceeds normally.

Illinois distribution earns a low regulated return and is subject to a cap. The MYRP allowed ROE is 8.72%[19], and Ameren has appealed the ICC decision[28]; if capital spending or operations and maintenance exceeds the reconciliation cap, the excess cannot be recovered. This risk affects Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution's net income ($281 million in 2025) and the return on the proposed $2.75 billion 2028-2031 grid investment plan[31]; third-quarter distribution earnings growth of at least 7% and ICC approval of the 2025 reconciliation at $31 million[29] would show that the constraint is not yet eroding earnings.

Whether large-load demand materializes is the largest demand-side risk to the new investment plan. Ameren warned in its 10-K that data-center customers could delay or scale back construction, and that approvals, supplier delivery or gains in computing efficiency could reduce actual power demand[38]; demand under the signed ESAs is expected to begin materializing in the second half of 2027 and reach full capacity by the end of 2029[33], and until then minimum demand charges and exit fees can only partly cover the generation and grid investment built to serve it[21]. The risk would decline if signed ESAs stay at or above 2.8 gigawatts, the Google and Amazon projects proceed on schedule[20] and the updated sales forecast is raised.

What to Watch Next

  • Missouri summer earnings: third-quarter Missouri net income against $518 million in the third quarter of 2025, the year-over-year operations and maintenance increase against $44 million in the second quarter (falling within $29 million per quarter would support the view), retail sales against 8,982 million kilowatt-hours in the third quarter of 2025 (a decline within 3% would support it), and year-to-date capital expenditures reaching $2.66 billion through the third quarter.
  • Formula returns: Ameren Transmission third-quarter net income against an adjusted $103 million (at least $113 million supports the view; growth below 5% contradicts it), Illinois Electric Distribution against $57 million (at least $61 million supports it; a decline contradicts it), transmission revenue growth above 9%, and an ICC decision on the $31 million reconciliation before December.
  • Investment plan and dilution: third-quarter diluted EPS against the $2.29 average and the adjusted $2.17 a year earlier, the new five-year capital plan midpoint against $31.8 billion, equity needs against about 12.6% of capital spending, and signed large-load ESAs against 2.8 gigawatts.

Conclusion

Ameren's earnings are driven by three kinds of regulated assets: Missouri generation and delivery grows through investment returns and periodic rate reviews but absorbs weather and maintenance swings, Illinois distribution and transmission recover investment returns by formula and grow more steadily, and new data-center demand is pushing capital spending to a higher level. Ameren earned $1.456 billion, or $5.35 per share, in 2025, and first-half 2026 EPS of $2.41 was up 15.9%, but operating cash flow still does not cover capital spending and short-term debt had risen to $1.220 billion at the end of June. The central unresolved relationship is whether rate base growth from expanded investment can outpace growth in operations and maintenance, interest and share dilution, and Missouri's summer quarter without a new rate step and the upcoming five-year plan test that relationship at the same time.

Coverage of Ameren since the July 30, 2026 second-quarter release consisted mainly of dividend announcements, bond issuance, MISO project awards, customer assistance and earnings scheduling news, and it included no commentary with a named author, independent reasoning and a verifiable date. As a result, outside interpretations of the three debates above cannot be summarized here, and scattered news reports should not be treated as a market view; any reading of these results has to rely on the company's own disclosures and the Drillr analyst averages, with outside interpretation added after the results are released.

If Missouri's third-quarter earnings are at least $518 million with a smaller maintenance increase, transmission and Illinois distribution earn at least $113 million and $61 million, and the new five-year plan raises capital spending without raising the equity share while signed ESAs stay above 2.8 gigawatts, the view that investment returns alone can sustain EPS growth would strengthen materially. Conversely, if Missouri's summer earnings fall year over year, the maintenance increase stays above $44 million, or the new plan raises the equity share and lowers the long-term earnings growth target, that view would weaken and the June 2027 Missouri rate decision would become even more important.

Sources

[1] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · four reporting segments · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[2] AEE earnings calendar updated 2026-11-04 · 2026-11-04 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] AEE 8-K filed 2026-07-30 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 and H1 consolidated income statement · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000020/q22026ex991earningsrelease.htm

[4] AEE 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 (Q2 2026) · Q2 electric revenue change by driver · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000023/aee-20260630.htm

[5] AEE 8-K filed 2026-07-30 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 results and reaffirmed 2026 guidance · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000020/q22026ex991earningsrelease.htm

[6] AEE 8-K filed 2026-07-30 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · 2026 guidance assumptions · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000020/q22026ex991earningsrelease.htm

[7] Drillr analyst estimates AEE Q3 2026 retrieved 2026-11-04 · 2026-11-04 · Drillr 分析师预测汇总 · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · 2025 income statement by segment · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[9] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · April 2025 MoPSC electric rate order · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[10] AEE 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 (Q2 2026) · June 2026 Missouri electric rate review timing · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000023/aee-20260630.htm

[11] AEE 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 (Q2 2026) · Q2 and H1 income statement by segment · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000023/aee-20260630.htm

[12] AEE 8-K filed 2026-07-30 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 segment results · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000020/q22026ex991earningsrelease.htm

[13] AEE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-31 · guidance and Q3 plan update · 2026-07-31 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[14] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · 2026-2030 capital expenditure plan · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[15] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · 2026-2030 equity financing plan · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[16] AEE 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 (Q2 2026) · Q2 and H1 earnings drivers · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000023/aee-20260630.htm

[17] AEE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-31 · transmission and generation projects · 2026-07-31 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[18] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · FAC net energy cost pass-through · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[19] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · regulatory frameworks and allowed ROEs · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[20] AEE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-31 · large-load pipeline and sales ramp · 2026-07-31 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[21] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · large load tariff terms and February 2026 ESAs · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[22] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · 2025 earnings summary and drivers · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[23] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · 2025 consolidated cash flow · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[24] AEE 8-K filed 2026-07-30 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · June 30, 2026 balance sheet and H1 cash flow · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000020/q22026ex991earningsrelease.htm

[25] AEE 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 (Q2 2026) · H1 2026 operating cash flow drivers · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000023/aee-20260630.htm

[26] AEE 8-K filed 2026-05-05 (Q1 2026 earnings release) · Q1 results · 2026-05-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000013/q12026ex991earningsrelease.htm

[27] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · PISA deferral and return mechanism · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[28] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · Illinois MYRP and Missouri Smart Energy Plan · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[29] AEE 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 (Q2 2026) · Ameren Illinois 2025 reconciliation adjustment · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000023/aee-20260630.htm

[30] AEE 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 (Q2 2026) · Ameren Missouri H1 2026 cash flow · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000023/aee-20260630.htm

[31] AEE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-31 · regulatory and financing update · 2026-07-31 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[32] AEE 8-K filed 2026-09-18 · $900 million junior subordinated notes · 2026-09-18 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000110465926108859/tm2625603d1_8k.htm

[33] AEE 10-Q filed 2026-08-03 (Q2 2026) · large-load ESAs and construction agreements · 2026-08-03 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000023/aee-20260630.htm

[34] AEE 8-K filed 2026-07-30 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 electric sales and revenues · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000020/q22026ex991earningsrelease.htm

[35] AEE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-31 · normalized retail sales and O&M · 2026-07-31 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[36] AEE 8-K filed 2026-09-28 · Ameren Missouri 2026 IRP · 2026-09-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000110465926111420/tm2626189d1_8k.htm

[37] AEE 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · ATM program increased by $2 billion · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000110465926090493/tm2621886d1_8k.htm

[38] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · demand growth may not materialize · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

[39] AEE 8-K filed 2026-06-26 · Missouri $343 million electric rate request · 2026-06-26 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000110465926078317/tm2619084d1_8k.htm

[40] AEE 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · PPRA revenue-requirement cap · 2026-02-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm

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