Research · Sep 3, 2026
[ZTO] ZTO Express Thesis 2026: Volume Scale Widens the Margin Gap Over Rivals
ZTO Express (ZTO) FY25 (Dec) revenue CNY 47.76B (+7.9%); gross profit CNY 11.94B (-13%; margin ~25% vs ~31% FY24); op income CNY 9.37B (-20.5%); net income CNY 8.83B (flat, +0.1%); EPS CNY 10.91 (+2%); FCF CNY 5.89B (~$820M USD) (+6.5%); total debt CNY 11.48B (-33.8%); CapEx CNY 6.07B. Q1 FY25: parcel volume 8.5B (+19.1%); adj net income CNY 2.3B (+1.6%); gross margin 24.7% (-5.4pp); unit cost CNY 0.94 flat. FY25 guidance (reiterated Q1): 40.8-42.2B parcels (+20-24% from 34B FY24). Q4 FY24: volume 9.67B (+11%); adj net income CNY 2.73B (+23.4%). Retail parcels +40-50% YoY in H2 FY24. Industry price war: Jitu/Pinduoduo low-price pressure; mix shift to lower-value e-commerce. ZTO service quality #1 timeliness among Tongda peers. Scale moat: 40B+ parcels/yr; infrastructure density (CNY 5.5-6B/yr CapEx). CNY reporting; USD at ~7.2x CNY. Risks: price war persistence, volume slowdown, network partner strain, US-China geopolitical ADR risk, Jitu competition.