Research · Sep 3, 2026
[XPO] XPO Thesis 2026: LTL Margin Expansion Leadership Validated by AI Routing Rollout
XPO FY25 revenue $8.16B (+1%); op income $729M (+10%); NI $316M; EPS $2.64. Q4 adj EBITDA $312M / adj diluted EPS $0.88 (+18% YoY ex real estate). LTL adj op income $181M Q4 (+14%); LTL margin +590bp since 2022. AI route optimization piloted Q1 → expanded to ~half of service centers Q4. Outsourced linehaul miles at 5.1% (record low; from 8.8% Q1). Yield +6% ex-fuel FY25 (third consecutive year). 14 consecutive quarters of on-time improvement; damage frequency 0.3% record. FY26 guide: 100-150bp OR improvement without macro recovery; gross capex $500-600M.