Research · Sep 3, 2026
Vertiv delivered FY2025 revenue of ~$9.75B (+29%) and Adj. EBITDA ~$2.1B at ~21.5% margin, with liquid cooling growing to ~$1.1B as NVIDIA Blackwell GPU thermal loads forced hyperscalers toward liquid cooling solutions. Backlog of ~$9.5B provides strong revenue visibility. FY2026 thesis: does ~$200B+ collective hyperscaler AI capex sustain through FY2026-FY2027, enabling Vertiv to reach $12B+ revenue and 24%+ EBITDA margins as liquid cooling mix increases to 35-40% of thermal revenue?
Research · Jun 11, 2026
Vertiv Q1 2026 revenue +30% YoY at $2.65B with 30%+ organic growth. Pure-play AI data center power and cooling pick-and-shovel.
Research · Jun 10, 2026
GM signaling new battery chemistry for AI data center backup + grid storage. Strategic pivot opens $20B+ market beyond struggling EV business.
Research · Jun 2, 2026
Hewlett Packard Enterprise reported $16.4B cumulative AI bookings against $5.9B backlog. The Server segment grew 33% YoY and FY26 EPS guidance lifted.
Research · Jun 2, 2026
Alphabet's $80B secondary issuance signals AI capex has outgrown organic FCF. Goldman bookrunner. The capital-allocation pivot reprices the hyperscaler.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Vertiv's Q1 2026 adjusted EPS jumped 83% YoY with 23% organic revenue growth, crushing estimates and raising FY guidance to $6.35 EPS/$13.75B sales. Results cement its AI data center leadership, supporting outperformance. Watch for Q2 growth slowdown as falsification.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Vertiv's Q1 2026 delivered 30% revenue growth and 83% adjusted EPS surge, beating estimates and prompting guidance hikes amid AI demand. Shares fell on overseas issues, offering a dip-buy for the growth story. Track Q2 for sustained momentum.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Vertiv's Q1 2026 delivered 23% organic growth (30% including M&A/FX), with Americas +44%, adjusted operating margin 20.8%, and EPS $1.17 (+83%). Full-year guidance raised to $6.35 EPS, $13.75B sales midpoint, operating margin 23.3%. Announced ThermoKey and B-Marker acquisitions. Order thread confirming; Q2 watch is Americas cadence and whether EMEA's -29% organic reverses.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
The AI infrastructure capex super-cycle is channeling $200B+ in hyperscaler spending into data centers, power, networking, and cooling. Arista Networks and Vertiv lead the ranking with the strongest order book visibility, while Amphenol offers the best growth-to-valuation ratio and Dell provides deep value at 12.8x forward earnings.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
A comparison of ORCL, DELL, SMCI, and VRT reveals a 10x gross margin gap across the AI capex value chain — from Oracle's 66.5% software margins to SMCI's 6.3% hardware assembly margins. Vertiv emerges as the margin sweet spot with 37.8% gross margins and minimal capex needs, while Oracle's historic $21B capex bet has pushed its FCF negative.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Oracle absorbs the heaviest capex burden in the AI infrastructure buildout, spending 75% of revenue on data center construction with negative free cash flow. Vertiv captures the best risk-adjusted returns — 25% ROIC, 19% FCF margins, and minimal capex — while server OEMs Dell and SMCI act as high-volume, low-margin pass-throughs.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Cloud infrastructure capex payback periods are dramatically longer than equipment layers. Oracle's PP&E/EBITDA ratio of 1.8x (and rising toward 3x) with negative free cash flow contrasts sharply with Dell, Vertiv, and SMCI, which all recover capex in under a year. Vertiv offers the best risk-adjusted exposure with 19% FCF margins and 25% ROIC on minimal capex, while Oracle's thesis rests on future cloud revenue materializing to justify unprecedented capital spending.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Power infrastructure stocks GEV, ETN, APH, VRT, and PWR have delivered extraordinary returns on AI data center demand, but trade at 27–59x forward earnings. Eaton and Amphenol offer the best risk-reward with proven margins and order momentum, while GE Vernova and Vertiv carry the highest valuation risk if hyperscaler capex normalizes.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
The $200B+ AI infrastructure buildout concentrates most heavily in compute (NVIDIA), with networking (Arista), power/cooling (Vertiv), servers (Dell), and optical interconnects (Coherent) capturing progressively smaller but fast-growing shares. NVIDIA and Arista offer the highest-conviction exposure, Dell the best value, and Vertiv and Coherent the most explosive but riskiest upside.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Astera Labs leads the group with near-100% AI revenue concentration, followed by Arista Networks at ~30% and rising. Vertiv, Coherent, and Modine offer varying degrees of AI exposure at more moderate valuations, with Modine's pending divestiture set to sharpen its data center focus heading into 2027.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Oracle's capital expenditure has surged to a $40B+ annualized run rate in FY2026, with $12B spent in the most recent quarter alone — nearly doubling FY2025's $21.2B total. NVIDIA captures the largest share through GPU sales, while Vertiv (power/cooling, +214% 1Y return) and Quanta Services (electrical infrastructure, +128% 1Y return) offer leveraged exposure to the physical buildout layer.
