USAR
NASDAQ · Basic Materials · Industrial Materials · US
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Nov 5, 2026
- EPS estimate
- -$0.16
- Revenue estimate
- $13.1M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Aug 10, 2026
- EPS actual
- -$0.15
- EPS estimate
- -$0.11
- Revenue actual
- $5.8M
- Revenue estimate
- $8.0M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 1
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 4
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 0
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- -96.0%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 1
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Buy
- Price target
- $28
- PT range
- $21 – $33
- Analysts
- 3
Q2 FY2026 · Aug 10, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
Strategic Vision & Market Context
- The company is building a fully integrated, end-to-end rare earth supply chain spanning three continents to serve Western demand, breaking near-total Chinese dominance of the industry. Recent Chinese export restrictions have crystallized supply chain risk, driving widespread demand for non-China sourced rare earths, resulting in a two-tier market with significantly higher pricing for Western-sourced material. As of August 2026, Western dysprosium oxide prices are up over 90% year-to-date (nearly $2,000 per kilogram, 9x Chinese prices), and Western yttrium oxide prices are up over 60% since March 2026 (over 200x Chinese prices), making scarcity and availability the defining market conditions.
- The company's fully integrated model (mining → processing → metal/alloy production → magnet manufacturing) eliminates the bottlenecks and stranded asset risks that plague less integrated non-China projects, creating high barriers to entry.
Guidance
- Round Top heavy rare earth project remains on track for commercial operations launch in late 2028, with full 10,000 tons of combined metal/alloy and magnet manufacturing capacity across U.S. facilities targeted for 2029.
- The definitive feasibility study for Round Top remains on track for completion by the end of 2026, with publication of the SK-1300 report scheduled for early 2027.
- Stillwater is on track to reach 600 metric tons of annual run rate magnet capacity by the end of 2026, with an additional 600 metric tons added in Q1 2027 to reach 1,200 metric tons total. Stillwater will ultimately reach 3,600 metric tons of magnet capacity and 5,000 metric tons of metal capacity. Full capacity for both Stillwater and the new Blacksburg facility (5,000 metric tons of metal, 6,400 metric tons of magnet capacity) is targeted by the end of 2029, with Blacksburg starting operations in early 2028.
- Management expects positive pricing momentum for non-China sourced products to flow through to financial results in upcoming quarters, after the company already implemented price increases for its products.
- First commercial magnet sales are expected by the end of 2026, with AS9100 quality certification for aerospace/defense clients targeted for 2027.
- The Cerro Verde acquisition shareholder vote is scheduled for August 28, 2026, with closing expected shortly after the vote. Cerro Verde is targeted to reach 6,400 metric tons of Trio run rate capacity by the end of 2027.
Segment performance
USA Rare Earth reported total Q2 2026 third-party revenues of approximately $6 million, all derived from the Metal and Alloy Making segment. Gross margins were negatively impacted by industry-wide heavy rare earth raw material input cost increases. Operating expenses for the quarter totaled approximately $45 million, including elevated M&A, legal, and consulting costs related to strategic global transactions, partially offset by lower R&D spending as the magnet business moved into production. Reported net loss attributable to common stockholders was $10.3 million (5 cents per share), while adjusted net loss (excluding a $22.4 million non-cash fair value adjustment for warrant and earn-out liabilities) was $33.5 million (15 cents per share). Capital expenditures for the quarter were $66 million. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $1.5 billion at quarter end, providing full flexibility for executing the company's mine-to-magnet growth strategy. No separate revenue contribution percentages are provided for other segments in the quarter, as only the Metal and Alloy Making segment generated third-party revenue.
Risks & headwinds
- Short-term industry-wide heavy rare earth feedstock shortages are impacting current operations, including the company's LCM metal and alloy segment, as most supply is still controlled by China.
- Rare earth production expertise has been largely lost in the West over decades of Chinese industry dominance, creating talent development challenges that require active partnerships with academic institutions and U.S. government programs to address.
- Customer qualification processes for new non-China rare earth supplies can be extended, as most Western customers have not sourced outside China for decades, lengthening sales cycles.
Analyst Q&A
Q: The 2,500 metric tons of demand covered by MOUs/LOIs is for annual demand, correct? Will this pipeline grow, and what is the typical term of these customer agreements?
A: The 2,500 metric ton figure represents annual covered demand, and the pipeline is expected to grow well beyond this level as more than 100 potential customers are in active dialogue, with 20 already in qualification. Agreements will range from single purchase orders to annual contracts, with longer-term offtake agreements expected to be pursued selectively based on transaction economics going forward.
Q: What are the remaining closing conditions and regulatory approvals for the Cerro Verde acquisition, and what are the key near-term operational bottlenecks for the asset?
A: The only remaining closing hurdle is the August 28 shareholder vote, with no additional regulatory approvals required. Closing will occur shortly after the vote. Further details on Cerro Verde's operational outlook will be provided after closing. The project is on track to reach 6,400 metric tons of Trio run rate capacity by the end of 2027.
Q: How do you expect to share updates on hydrometallurgical facility milestones going forward, and what is the current update on talent availability for your scaling plans?
A: The company will announce relevant milestones as they are achieved, consistent with past communication, and remains on track to complete the Round Top DFS by year end. The company has successfully built out a team of hundreds of employees with deep rare earth expertise, and attracts talent driven by the strategic mission of the project. Transferable skills from adjacent industries work well for magnet production roles, and the company partners with U.S. government and academic institutions to develop new talent pipelines.
Q: What portion of your long-term feedstock is expected to come from recycling of magnet manufacturing swarf?
A: In-house generated swarf from magnet production is expected to supply 20% to 30% of total feedstock long-term, once the company reaches full 10,000 metric tons of annual finished magnet production. Recycled swarf is processed back into usable raw material oxides for new magnet production.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 5, 2026