Research · Sep 3, 2026
UPS FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $88.64B revenue (-2.5%, deliberate Amazon volume reduction). Operating income $8.47B (margin 9.6% held); Net income $5.57B (-3.6%); Diluted EPS $6.56. OCF $8.45B; Capex $3.69B; FCF $4.77B (-23%). Capital return $6.40B (div $5.40B held + buyback $1.0B vs $500M FY24). Total debt $32.3B (+$6.6B for Network of the Future capex). Amazon volume reducing from 11-12% to <5% of US volumes by FY26 end. Citi $120→$118 (Apr 7).
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Bloomberg's April 13 Hormuz blockade report tanked copper and spiked aluminum spreads, bearish for FCX miners and UPS/FDX shippers but bullish for XOM/CVX/OXY on oil premiums. Energy majors' low leverage and production exposure position them for gains amid shipping chaos.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Strait of Hormuz blockade as of April 9, 2026, tightens oil supply, favoring XOM, OXY, HAL, and BKR with production/margin tailwinds while pressuring UPS and RCL via fuel costs. OXY tops conviction on valuation and leverage.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Strait of Hormuz closure from Iran conflict spikes crude into backwardation, boosting oil producers like COP, XOM, and CVX while slamming DAL, UPS, and F. COP tops conviction for pure upstream exposure; Ford ranks worst on ICE demand hit.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Record March US fuel exports to Europe/Asia amid Middle East gaps boost refiner margins for VLO, MPC, PSX, while diesel costs pressure FDX, UPS, CSX. MPC tops conviction list at 17.8x P/E with midstream tailwinds; UPS lags with -17% 1Y return.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
China and Russia's veto of a UN resolution protecting Strait of Hormuz shipping heightens risks to 20% of global oil flows, potentially boosting prices and favoring XOM, CVX, and OXY amid strong financials and low leverage. Logistics firms like UPS and FDX face headwinds from higher costs, while the market's muted reaction leaves room for catch-up rallies.
