Research · Sep 3, 2026
[TXRH] Texas Roadhouse Thesis 2026: Casual Dining Cycle Drives Bubba's 33 Comp Acceleration
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) FY2025 revenue ~$5.95-6.20B (+12-17%) with adj. EPS ~$6.85-7.40 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$5.65-5.85B aggregate Restaurant Sales (~95%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers casual dining + selected various aggregate franchise) + selected continued post-2024 ~$300-350M aggregate Franchise + Other revenue (~5% aggregate revenue mix) under continued President + CEO Gerald Morgan since 2021 (~4-year tenure as Texas Roadhouse CEO; selected post-2021 W. Kent Taylor Founder retirement). One of the largest US casual dining restaurant chains. Founded 1993 as Texas Roadhouse by W. Kent Taylor in Clarksville Indiana (~32-year heritage); selected post-October 2004 NASDAQ IPO; selected post-2013 Bubba's 33 American sports bar concept + selected post-2014 Jaggers quick-service chicken concept; selected post-2021 Gerald Morgan CEO appointment. Headquartered in Louisville Kentucky; ~80,000+ employees globally with ~$5.95-6.20B revenue. One primary business: casual dining restaurant chain (~100%). Structure: Restaurant Sales (~95%+ ~$5.65-5.85B), Franchise + Other (~5% ~$300-350M). Geographic mix: US ~98%+ + Canada + selected various international ~2%. Texas Roadhouse comp cycle (~+8-10% same-store sales): ~$5.65-5.85B Restaurant Sales; ~700+ aggregate total restaurants; ~+8-10% aggregate same-store sales growth; ~+5-7% aggregate average weekly sales growth; ~+3-5% aggregate guest traffic growth; ~$3,500-3,800 aggregate average weekly sales. Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion: ~25-30 aggregate annual de novo openings; ~$200-250M aggregate annual de novo + remodel CapEx. President + CEO Gerald Morgan since 2021 (~4-year tenure); CFO David Monroe. Capital return: ~$2.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2011 dividend initiation); ~$200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$100-200M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$285-385M FY2025; net leverage ~negligible (~debt-free balance sheet); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Texas Roadhouse comp cycle + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion + ~$2.80 annual dividend + ~13-year continuous dividend track + ~$285-410M aggregate annual capital return + ~debt-free balance sheet. Risks: Cracker Barrel + Outback Steakhouse + LongHorn Steakhouse + Olive Garden + Chili's competition, Chick-fil-A + Raising Cane's quick-service chicken competition, US casual dining cycle (inflation + traffic + check considerations), same-store sales growth normalization.