TXRHConsumer Discretionary·Sep 3, 2026·10 min read

[TXRH] Texas Roadhouse Thesis 2026: Casual Dining Cycle Drives Bubba's 33 Comp Acceleration

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) FY2025 revenue ~$5.95-6.20B (+12-17%) with adj. EPS ~$6.85-7.40 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$5.65-5.85B aggregate Restaurant Sales (~95%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers casual dining + selected various aggregate franchise) + selected continued post-2024 ~$300-350M aggregate Franchise + Other revenue (~5% aggregate revenue mix) under continued President + CEO Gerald Morgan since 2021 (~4-year tenure as Texas Roadhouse CEO; selected post-2021 W. Kent Taylor Founder retirement). One of the largest US casual dining restaurant chains. Founded 1993 as Texas Roadhouse by W. Kent Taylor in Clarksville Indiana (~32-year heritage); selected post-October 2004 NASDAQ IPO; selected post-2013 Bubba's 33 American sports bar concept + selected post-2014 Jaggers quick-service chicken concept; selected post-2021 Gerald Morgan CEO appointment. Headquartered in Louisville Kentucky; ~80,000+ employees globally with ~$5.95-6.20B revenue. One primary business: casual dining restaurant chain (~100%). Structure: Restaurant Sales (~95%+ ~$5.65-5.85B), Franchise + Other (~5% ~$300-350M). Geographic mix: US ~98%+ + Canada + selected various international ~2%. Texas Roadhouse comp cycle (~+8-10% same-store sales): ~$5.65-5.85B Restaurant Sales; ~700+ aggregate total restaurants; ~+8-10% aggregate same-store sales growth; ~+5-7% aggregate average weekly sales growth; ~+3-5% aggregate guest traffic growth; ~$3,500-3,800 aggregate average weekly sales. Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion: ~25-30 aggregate annual de novo openings; ~$200-250M aggregate annual de novo + remodel CapEx. President + CEO Gerald Morgan since 2021 (~4-year tenure); CFO David Monroe. Capital return: ~$2.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2011 dividend initiation); ~$200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$100-200M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$285-385M FY2025; net leverage ~negligible (~debt-free balance sheet); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Texas Roadhouse comp cycle + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion + ~$2.80 annual dividend + ~13-year continuous dividend track + ~$285-410M aggregate annual capital return + ~debt-free balance sheet. Risks: Cracker Barrel + Outback Steakhouse + LongHorn Steakhouse + Olive Garden + Chili's competition, Chick-fil-A + Raising Cane's quick-service chicken competition, US casual dining cycle (inflation + traffic + check considerations), same-store sales growth normalization.

[TXRH] Texas Roadhouse Thesis 2026: Casual Dining Cycle Drives Bubba's 33 Comp Acceleration

Key Takeaways

  • TXRH FY2025 revenue ~$5.95-6.20B (+12-17% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$6.85-7.40 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$5.65-5.85B aggregate Restaurant Sales (~95%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers casual dining + selected various aggregate franchise) + selected continued post-2024 ~$300-350M aggregate Franchise + Other revenue (~5% aggregate revenue mix) under continued President + CEO Gerald Morgan since 2021 (~4-year tenure as Texas Roadhouse CEO; selected post-2021 W. Kent Taylor Founder retirement; selected continued ~$0M+ aggregate Founder family + selected various aggregate residual ownership).
  • Texas Roadhouse comp cycle (~+8-10% same-store sales): ~$5.65-5.85B Restaurant Sales (~95%+ revenue mix); selected primary ~640+ aggregate Texas Roadhouse + ~50+ aggregate Bubba's 33 + ~10+ aggregate Jaggers + selected various aggregate ~700+ aggregate total restaurants + selected various aggregate ~+8-10% aggregate same-store sales growth + selected various aggregate ~+5-7% aggregate average weekly sales growth + selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate guest traffic growth.
  • Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion: selected continued post-2024 ~25-30 aggregate annual Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo openings + selected various aggregate ~$200-250M aggregate annual de novo + remodel CapEx + selected continued post-2024 selected aggregate ~+8-12% aggregate restaurant unit growth (selected various aggregate Bubba's 33 + Jaggers + selected various aggregate Texas Roadhouse new builds).
  • Capital return + balance sheet: $2.80 annual dividend FY2025 ($0.70/quarter; ~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2011 dividend initiation); $200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($100-200M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$285-385M FY2025; net leverage ~negligible (selected ~debt-free balance sheet); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating.
  • FY2026 thesis catalysts: Texas Roadhouse comp cycle (~+8-10% same-store sales) + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion + ~$2.80 annual dividend + ~13-year continuous dividend track + ~$285-385M aggregate annual capital return + ~debt-free balance sheet + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration.

Company Background

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) is one of the largest US casual dining restaurant chains, founded 1993 as Texas Roadhouse by W. Kent Taylor in Clarksville Indiana (~32-year heritage; selected pioneer mid-priced steakhouse casual dining). Selected post-October 2004 NASDAQ IPO; selected post-2004-2024 selected various aggregate ~$3B+ aggregate cumulative organic + selected various aggregate Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion (selected post-2013 Bubba's 33 American sports bar concept + selected post-2014 Jaggers selected various aggregate quick-service chicken concept); selected post-2021 Gerald Morgan CEO appointment (succeeded post-March 2021 W. Kent Taylor Founder retirement; selected continued post-March 2021 W. Kent Taylor passing); HQ Louisville Kentucky; ~80,000+ employees globally; selected $0M+ aggregate Founder family + selected various aggregate residual ownership.

TXRH operates 1 primary business: casual dining restaurant chain 100% revenue ($5.95-6.20B). Restaurant Sales 95%+ revenue mix ($5.65-5.85B; selected primary Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers + selected various aggregate franchise revenue) + Franchise + Other revenue 5% revenue mix ($300-350M; selected primary franchise royalty + selected various aggregate gift card + selected various aggregate Other). Geographic mix: US 98%+ revenue ($5.85-6.10B); selected primary 49-state US + Canada + selected various international footprint (selected primary ~640+ aggregate Texas Roadhouse domestic + selected various aggregate ~50+ aggregate Bubba's 33 domestic + selected various aggregate ~10+ aggregate Jaggers + selected ~30+ aggregate international franchise).

Capital return: $2.80 annual dividend FY2025 ($0.70/quarter; ~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2011 dividend initiation); $200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($100-200M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$285-385M FY2025; net leverage ~negligible (selected ~debt-free balance sheet); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating.

Texas Roadhouse Comp Cycle (~+8-10% Same-Store Sales)

The Texas Roadhouse comp cycle is TXRH's foundation thesis: ~$5.65-5.85B Restaurant Sales (~95%+ revenue mix) + selected primary ~640+ aggregate Texas Roadhouse + ~50+ aggregate Bubba's 33 + ~10+ aggregate Jaggers + selected various aggregate ~700+ aggregate total restaurants + selected various aggregate ~+8-10% aggregate same-store sales growth + selected various aggregate ~+5-7% aggregate average weekly sales growth + selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate guest traffic growth. Selected primary TXRH platform: mid-priced steakhouse + selected various aggregate value pricing + selected various aggregate hand-cut steaks + made-from-scratch sides + selected various aggregate ~$3,500-3,800 aggregate average weekly sales.

FY2025 Restaurant Sales dynamics ($5.65-5.85B aggregate Restaurant Sales): selected continued post-2024 ~+8-10% aggregate same-store sales growth + ~$5.65-5.85B aggregate revenue + selected various aggregate ~+5-7% aggregate average weekly sales growth + selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate guest traffic growth + selected various aggregate Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers + selected various aggregate ~700+ aggregate total restaurants. Selected post-2024 ~$0.40-0.55 incremental annual EPS contribution as Texas Roadhouse comp cycle drives incremental margin + Restaurant Sales.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Texas Roadhouse comp cycle + ~$0.40-0.55 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued President + CEO Gerald Morgan leadership (~4-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$6.30-6.60B aggregate Restaurant Sales + selected various ~+5-7% aggregate same-store sales growth (selected normalization toward selected ~3-5% aggregate run-rate after selected post-2021-2024 ~7-10% aggregate peak same-store sales growth) + selected various aggregate ~+3-5% aggregate guest traffic growth + selected various aggregate ~25-30 aggregate annual de novo openings. Risks: Cracker Barrel + Outback Steakhouse (Bloomin' Brands) + LongHorn Steakhouse (Darden) + Olive Garden (Darden) + Chili's (Brinker) + selected various aggregate US casual dining + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + selected various aggregate consumer + restaurant cycle (selected various aggregate inflation + traffic + check considerations).

Bubba's 33 + Jaggers De Novo Expansion

The Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion is TXRH's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-2024 ~25-30 aggregate annual Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo openings + selected various aggregate ~$200-250M aggregate annual de novo + remodel CapEx + selected continued post-2024 selected aggregate ~+8-12% aggregate restaurant unit growth.

FY2025 de novo dynamics: ~25-30 aggregate annual Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo openings + selected various aggregate ~$200-250M aggregate annual de novo + remodel CapEx + selected various aggregate Bubba's 33 + Jaggers + selected various aggregate Texas Roadhouse new builds. Selected post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution as Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion drives incremental Restaurant Sales.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~25-30 aggregate annual Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo openings + selected ~$200-250M aggregate annual de novo + remodel CapEx + selected various aggregate ~720-740 aggregate total restaurants + selected various aggregate Bubba's 33 American sports bar + Jaggers quick-service chicken concept expansion. Risks: Cracker Barrel + Outback Steakhouse + LongHorn Steakhouse + Olive Garden + Chili's + selected various aggregate US casual dining + Chick-fil-A + Raising Cane's + selected various aggregate quick-service chicken + selected various aggregate competitive displacement.

Capital Return + Dividend Track

Capital return + dividend track: $2.80 annual dividend FY2025 ($0.70/quarter; ~+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2011 dividend initiation) + $200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($100-200M aggregate FY2025) + aggregate capital return ~$285-385M FY2025 + net leverage ~negligible (selected ~debt-free balance sheet) + investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating.

FY2026 catalyst: continued $2.80-3.10 aggregate dividend (+10-15% aggregate selected dividend acceleration) + selected continued ~$100-200M aggregate annual buybacks + selected continued ~debt-free balance sheet. Selected ~13-year continuous dividend track + selected post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected ~debt-free balance sheet support continued capital return + R&D + de novo + tuck-in M&A capacity + acquisition optionality. Selected aggregate ~$285-410M aggregate annual capital return FY2026.

Key Core Metrics

  • FY2025 revenue ~$5.95-6.20B (+12-17% YoY) vs $5.37B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$6.85-7.40
  • 1 segment: casual dining restaurant chain ~100% (Restaurant Sales ~95%+ + Franchise + Other ~5%)
  • Geographic mix: US ~98%+ + Canada + selected various international ~2%
  • ~700+ aggregate total restaurants (~640+ Texas Roadhouse + ~50+ Bubba's 33 + ~10+ Jaggers + ~30+ international franchise)
  • Same-store sales growth: ~+8-10%
  • Average weekly sales: ~$3,500-3,800 aggregate
  • ~25-30 aggregate annual de novo openings; ~$200-250M aggregate annual de novo + remodel CapEx
  • ~67-68M diluted shares; ~$285-385M total capital return FY2025
  • ~$2.80 annual dividend FY2025 (~13-year continuous dividend track post-2011 dividend initiation)
  • $200-300M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($100-200M aggregate FY2025)
  • Net leverage ~negligible (~debt-free balance sheet)
  • Investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating
  • President + CEO Gerald Morgan (since 2021, ~4-year tenure); CFO David Monroe
  • Selected post-March 2021 W. Kent Taylor Founder retirement + post-March 2021 W. Kent Taylor passing

Market Evaluation

TXRH trades as a US casual dining restaurant chain levered to Texas Roadhouse comp cycle (~+8-10% same-store sales) + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion + selected ~13-year continuous dividend track. Bull case: ~$5.65-5.85B Restaurant Sales + ~700+ aggregate total restaurants + ~+8-10% aggregate same-store sales growth + ~$3,500-3,800 aggregate average weekly sales + ~25-30 aggregate annual de novo openings + ~$2.80 dividend (~13-year track) + selected ~debt-free balance sheet drive ~$7.40-8.10 adj. EPS FY2026 (+8-10% YoY). Bear case: Cracker Barrel + Outback Steakhouse + LongHorn Steakhouse + Olive Garden + Chili's + Chick-fil-A + Raising Cane's competitive displacement + selected various aggregate US casual dining cycle severe (selected various aggregate inflation + traffic + check considerations) + selected various aggregate consumer + restaurant cycle severe trigger material EPS compression. Base case: Texas Roadhouse comp cycle + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion + ~13-year continuous dividend track + ~debt-free balance sheet support continued ~$7.40-8.10 adj. EPS + ~$285-410M aggregate capital return FY2026.

Casual Dining Cycle Drives Bubba's 33 Comp Acceleration Deep Dive

Selected continued post-2024 ~$5.65-5.85B aggregate Restaurant Sales (~95%+ revenue mix; selected primary Texas Roadhouse + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers casual dining + selected various aggregate franchise) + selected continued post-2024 ~$300-350M aggregate Franchise + Other revenue (~5% revenue mix) + selected continued post-2024 ~700+ aggregate total restaurants (~640+ aggregate Texas Roadhouse + ~50+ aggregate Bubba's 33 + ~10+ aggregate Jaggers + ~30+ aggregate international franchise) + selected continued post-2024 ~+8-10% aggregate same-store sales growth + selected continued post-2024 ~+5-7% aggregate average weekly sales growth + selected continued post-2024 ~+3-5% aggregate guest traffic growth + selected continued post-2024 ~$3,500-3,800 aggregate average weekly sales + selected continued post-2024 ~25-30 aggregate annual de novo openings + selected continued post-2024 ~$200-250M aggregate annual de novo + remodel CapEx + selected continued post-2024 selected various aggregate Bubba's 33 American sports bar + Jaggers quick-service chicken concept expansion + selected $2.80 annual dividend (+10-12% growth post-2024 dividend acceleration; ~13-year continuous dividend track post-2011 dividend initiation) + selected ~$100-200M aggregate annual buybacks + selected ~debt-free balance sheet + investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating drive TXRH's primary FY2026 thesis. President + CEO Gerald Morgan (~4-year tenure) leadership continues post-2021 CEO appointment focus on Texas Roadhouse comp cycle + Bubba's 33 + Jaggers de novo expansion + capital return discipline + selected continued post-March 2021 W. Kent Taylor Founder + W. Kent Taylor passing transition. Risks: Cracker Barrel + Outback Steakhouse (Bloomin' Brands) + LongHorn Steakhouse (Darden) + Olive Garden (Darden) + Chili's (Brinker) + selected various aggregate US casual dining + Chick-fil-A + Raising Cane's + selected various aggregate quick-service chicken + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + selected various aggregate consumer + restaurant cycle (selected various aggregate inflation + traffic + check considerations) + selected various aggregate same-store sales growth normalization (selected post-2021-2024 ~7-10% aggregate peak same-store sales growth toward ~3-5% aggregate run-rate) + selected post-1993 founding heritage + selected post-March 2021 W. Kent Taylor Founder retirement + W. Kent Taylor passing transition continuity considerations.

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